@LLequeu

Multi-assets strategist with actionable trading ideas based on global macro trend. Managed international institutional & High Net Worth individuals’ portfolios

 The Planet Earth
themacrobutler.com/
Joined May 2015
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7.6KMedia
Your savings are being robbed. Quietly. No break-in. No bill. Just 3–4% a year. At 3.5% inflation, $100 buys ~$71 of stuff in a decade. Here are the three thieves — and the antidote. 🧵
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The Ministry of Consumer Sentiment has excellent news to report, timed with impeccable coincidence a week before the midterms: Consumer Confidence “rebounded dramatically” to 91.7 from September’s below-#COVID lows, crushing expectations — a renaissance the Conference Board itself admits was “in line with retail gasoline prices easing,” meaning the entire recovery of national morale was purchased with one cheaper tank of petrol. The fine print is quietly filed where nobody reads it: confidence remains on its multi-year decline, consumers plan to spend less on services and durables, and the only citizens permitted to feel better are the under-35s and the 100k-plus $ households who own the assets — while everyone else writes in to complain about the price of food, groceries, and diesel.
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The housing release completes the doublethink: home prices keep rising even as mortgage rates rip higher, because “affordability” was always a word for the press release, never the policy. The asset-rich feel wonderful; the wage-earner is priced out of the home and the optimism alike.
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When confidence “rebounds” on one cheap tank of gas and home prices climb as mortgages get dearer, the recovery isn’t an economy improving — it’s the scoreboard being polished for the people who own it, a week before they’re asked to vote.
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Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in September, up 10.0% on the year, and the headline is as usual an aircraft order wearing a suit — transportation did the heavy lifting. Core orders rose 0.5%, an eighteenth consecutive monthly gain, which sounds magnificent until one notices the consensus was 0.6%. Core capital goods — non-defence ex-aircraft, the cleanest read on business equipment — also managed 0.5% against roughly 0.7% expected, down from 1.6% the month before. Shipments were the honest bright spot at 1.2% against 0.8%, which feeds GDP equipment investment directly. The detail we commend is the quiet one: the AI spending proxy — telephone apparatus, broadcast and wireless gear, routers, switches, fiber — slowed. It is the single series that has carried American capex, the justification for every data center and every semiconductor headline, and it has begun to flag.
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Eighteen straight months of core growth achieved while homebuilders cut prices and truckers file for bankruptcy.
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The arithmetic has finally caught up. Average pump prices under Donald Copperfield’s second term now stand at $3.472 a gallon against Sleepy Joe’s four-year average of $3.471 — a victory margin of one tenth of a cent, in the wrong direction. The current national average is $4.27 versus $3.05 a year ago, up some 43% since February’s Middle East excursion began. The man who campaigned on sub-$2 gasoline has delivered the Strait of Hormuz instead. One notes the administration’s remedy — restart idle refineries — and the industry’s reply that this “cannot provide immediate relief,” refineries being inconveniently physical.
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A president may win an argument about inflation, but never one with the man at the pump — he reads the number before he hears the speech.
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#Gold is holding near $4,000 despite surging bond yields — will the Eternal Bullion get its shine back? 🥇🔥 The Macro Butler is back on Asharq Bloomberg TV (صباح الشرق) to make the case the consensus keeps missing: gold is facing a crucial test at $4,000, and even with rising US Treasury yields pressing against it, the setup for the next leg higher is stronger than the bears admit. Here’s the thesis: 🥇 Gold is consolidating, not plunging — holding near $4,000 through rising yields is a sign of underlying strength, not weakness. 🏛 Geopolitical tension and the debt crisis are the real drivers — and both are escalating, not fading, into the months ahead. 🛡 Safe-haven demand is set to return — The Macro Butler is betting the flight to gold reasserts itself as the war cycle and sovereign-debt risks intensify. 📉 Higher rates can’t break it — because when raising rates makes gold rise, the problem was never the rate. While the market fixates on the pullback, the smart money is accumulating what can’t be printed, frozen, or defaulted on. 📺 Watch the full interview on Asharq Bloomberg TV now. themacrobutler.substack.com/…
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#China’s stock market just lost $3.5 trillion — so why isn’t Beijing riding to the rescue? 🎙📉🔥 The Macro Butler is back on CNA 938 to answer the question puzzling every China watcher: with $3.5 trillion wiped off Chinese equities, why is Beijing sitting on its hands instead of unleashing the stimulus bazooka the consensus keeps expecting? Here’s the thesis: 🇨🇳 Beijing’s restraint is deliberate, not accidental — The Macro Butler explains why the Party is prioritizing structural goals over propping up a market, and what that tells you about where China’s economy is really headed. 🏭 The two-speed economy — factories running hot for export and #AI while the domestic consumer stays stubbornly shut, and why no stimulus headline fixes that divide. 💱 A weaker #yuan, Panda bonds, and the slow pivot — the pieces of China’s long game the market keeps misreading. 🎧 Listen to the full interview on CNA 938 Rewind now. themacrobutler.substack.com/…
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#Serbia has done something Europe has not managed in years: changed a government by voting but unfortunately for the worst. The Students’ List took 140 seats to the SNS’s 103, ending fourteen years of Aleksandar Vučić, who conceded with the words “the Students’ List has won” and the suggestion that European countries and an “American deep state” had helped. Moscow calls it a colour revolution; Ursula The Witch and Costa called it a partnership, pledging support for the rule of law, media freedom and anti-corruption — virtues Brussels discovers abroad more readily than at home. Vučić reportedly hinted that sanctions on Russia could follow by March or April, which is the actual price of the accession ticket. edition.cnn.com/2026/10/25/e…
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The past week’s symmetry is stunning: French MPs reject their own budget, British generals ask citizens to consent to sacrifice, Dutch ministers suggest the young live with their parents — and the one European electorate that successfully dismissed its leader did so in a candidate country.
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The Treasury of the Empire sold $69 billion of two-year notes at 4.708%, tailing the when-issued by 0.3 basis points, the widest tail since March.
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Bid-to-cover slid to 2.589, also the weakest since March. The real story was who stopped bidding. Indirects, the proxy for foreign demand, collapsed to 45.7% from 57.8%, their lowest share since November 2021. Domestic directs had to absorb a record 41.3%, while dealers took 13%. This happened in the safest, most liquid corner of the Treasury market, just days before the Fed’s decision. Two-year paper is supposed to be the world’s cash equivalent.
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When foreigners won’t hold it even at 4.7%, the problem is not the yield but the borrower. Washington pays $3 billion a day in interest, tilts its issuance towards bills and notes, and increasingly sells them to itself. The 20-year was a warning, and the 2-year is the echo. Empires do not default overnight; they first run out of foreign friends.
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The scariest thing this #Halloween isn’t ghosts. It’s not understanding your #money. 🎃 A treat, not a trick: 15% off The Macro Butler Financial Academy. ⏳ Ends Nov 4, 12:00 AM EST. Subscribe here: themacrobutler.com/financial… The foolish man fears the dark. The wise man lights a candle. 🕯
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#Brazil has re-elected Lula, defying the pollsters, the bettors and Washington. The 80-year-old former metalworker beat Flávio Bolsonaro 51.76% to 48.24%, a margin of about 4.3 million votes out of 124 million, overturning a first-round deficit of 45.2% to 47.0%. The final polls had Bolsonaro narrowly ahead, and Polymarket gave Lula just 23% the day before the vote. Bolsonaro led the count until it was 70% complete, when the Northeast turned it around. Lula will begin a record fourth term on 1 January 2027 as the oldest president Brazil has ever elected. “This country needs peace and unity,” he said. Bolsonaro has refused to accept the result and is demanding an annulment, so the family’s playbook has been handed to the next generation. The vote is also a setback for Donald Copperfield’s “Donroe Doctrine.” theguardian.com/world/ng-int…
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The markets bet on change and got continuity. In Brazil, the polls predict, the markets speculate and the Northeast decides.
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Governments are not repaying the debt. They’re just borrowing more. 💸 Bond investors have noticed, and that’s why yields are climbing. So who pays? You do, through #inflation, taxes and your #mortgage. Would you lend money to someone who never plans to pay you back? 👇 Learn how to protect yourself with The Macro Butler Financial Academy. themacrobutler.com/financial… 🎃 15% off until Nov 4. The borrower who never repays is not a debtor. He is a magician. And you are the rabbit.
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🚨 FRANCE IS IN TURMOIL. IS THE CURRENCY RESET ALREADY UNDERWAY? 🇫🇷💸 Political instability. Mounting public #debt. Angry taxpayers. A government struggling to balance the books. Sound familiar? 👀 #France may be facing more than a political crisis. It could be a warning sign of a deeper problem confronting the entire Western financial system. 💣 Governments keep borrowing. 📉 Confidence in public finances comes under pressure. 💶 Investors rethink sovereign bonds. 🥇 Hard assets regain their appeal. What happens when investors start questioning not just a government—but the money and debt behind it? 🎯 Watch the full video and discover how to invest in world of #chaos with The Macro Butler Financial Academy: themacrobutler.com/financial…
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Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on YouTube. themacrobutler.substack.com/…
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