No one in their right senses bets against Alhaji Aliko Dangote. But for sheer love of modelling, we are going to do just that! Well, only on one small matter: his prediction of 10 million unique subscribers buying into the IPO of his giant Lagos refinery, which was extended from closing today to 27th Oct. Our unproven model suggests that it would be hard to get past 2.8 million unique, valid retail subscribers, with an 80% range of 2.1 - 4.4 million. That would still be roughly twenty times Nigeria's previous retail record (MTN Nigeria's 126,720 in 2022), a little over half of Saudi Aramco's 5.06 million, but well under a third of the 10 million Dangote is expecting. - Chance of matching Aramco (4.9m real people): about 5%. - Chance of 10 million real, unique Nigerian and African subscribers: effectively nil in this model. - Chance that a headline of 10 million or more is announced anyway: very high. (And this is where the fun part is!) The IPO managers may have a trick up their sleeve (wink). The 10 million subscriber count can be reached by counting applications rather than people, or by counting pension contributors whose funds bought shares. How do we know that? MTN did the latter in 2022, turning 126,720 retail buyers into "6.6 million *indirect* Nigerian shareholders". Using that approach, it should be very easy for Dangote to break even the “10 million subscribers” threshold without breaking a sweat, just by adding "indirect". The offer will almost certainly be oversubscribed by value, but that has little to do with mass participation. Nigerian Pension funds (₦31.3 trillion in assets, with a regulatory waiver to buy), a $400 million pan-African SPV, and high-net-worth investors can fill ₦2.15 trillion on their own. On valuation, the ₦525 IPO share price asks buyers to assume that todays war-inflated margins become normal. As many analysts have pointed out, the price needs a through-cycle gross refining margin of $28 - 34 a barrel (about $32 in the central case) on a refinery doubled to 1.4 million barrels a day. The company's 2026 guidance is $24.2. At that guidance, fair value is closer to ₦310 - 450 a share, depending on discount rate and cost assumptions. But none of this kinda math really matters when it comes to the IPO demand. The real issues are disposable income, national levels of financial literacy, trust in capital markets, and various hygiene factors. The Aramco IPO was the world’s largest recent IPO on subscriber numbers. Unsurprisingly, it is the one Alhaji, ever the impossibility transcender, wants to beat. Unfortunately, Aramco is the wrong yardstick. It is true that every Dangote IPO design choice has aimed at maximising headcount rather than capital (only 3.3% of the enlarged company is on offer). $4 minimum ticket, 55 approved e-channels, no upfront CSCS account, bonus shares and a promise of priority for small investors, etc. All this rewards breadth. But there are gaps. Aramco's 5 million+ subscribers were produced by a rich state with a mass-retail market, bank credit and political pressure. Dangote does have a populous market, but it is not captive enough. Nor is there any equivalent of Tadawul’s decades of mass retail trading in Nigeria. Of the 6 million CSCS accounts in Nigeria, about 10% are active. Unlike in Saudi, Nigerian banks aren’t lending into the frenzy either. At any rate, outside India, I struggle to find a retail play that has drawn more than 6 million people. Yes, Safaricom hit 4.5% of the Kenyan adult population so 8% of Nigeria’s for Dangote shouldn’t be too crazy. Except that you are not considering the economic pressures in today’s Nigeria. Moreover, “mass equity ownership” is built over years. One mega-offer however magical its issuer can only climb so much of the distance. Britain went from 3 million individual shareholders in 1979 to 8 million in 1987 through a string of privatisations. Like I said at the very start, no sane person bets against the Alhaji, but he is asking the system to do several years of onboarding in four weeks. Hence my reckless wager. Wish me luck!