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Joined January 2020
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alright here we are:
- will be a website this year, not a google sheet
- on-site chat instead of discord
- same shit as every other season with projections, ranks, etc.
- same price as last year ($60/mth, $300/season)
- 15% discount on the first month on patreon til Oct 10th
based on those model changes2121, here are some of the impacts for tonight (not including any impacted by line changes)
Varlamov −0.9
Blackwood −0.5
Swayman, Soderblom and Dobes −0.4
Hellebuyck +0.6
Bussi and Cossa +0.4
Merilainen and Hart +0.3
made some back-end tweaks to the projection & betting model again, which i'll (vaguely) break down in this thread. getting pushed in a minute.
all changes are made from OUT of sample games so it's not taking something it learned from a game to re-apply it to that same game:
5) large sim adjustment to how correlated a game is
DFS result:
fixed stacking in the simulator (wasn't stacking properly relative to actual contests), gap between actual correlations is down to 0.02
goalies save accuracy improves for DFS & also props
added a new Gravity stat to the Impact rating page, it's basically a Quality of Competition metric broken into Off & Def and measured with xG rates of the competition. but thought it was neat.
