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I turned a $3,000 deposit on Polymarket into over a $40,000 PnL.
Here is my journey:
Started the year down bad, ran $7k into the ground gambling without a real edge. Hit $3k and had a choice to make.
The turning point came the day of the Iran strikes. Everyone was buying YES on strikes. I went short Bitcoin instead, felt the downside was smaller if I was wrong. Bitcoin dumped.
That's when it clicked: stop gambling, size appropriately, be consistent.
Since February 28th, exactly 3 months ago:
I've turned that $ 3K into $ 40K. I learned so much about risk management and what it takes to be an actual consistently profitable trader.
I don't have to gamble and more importantly, i don't have to stress about my positions.
The approach is simple:
-No moonshots. I'm not looking for 1000x
- High Volatility plays with decent volume
- Multiple small wins, compounding fast
- Dont oversize, allows for easy exits, avoids holding the bag
- I trade anything, as long as the direction is clear, the flow is good, and the arguments hold up
If I can't find that, I don't trade.
Going forward, I'll be sharing my thoughts on markets, the bets I'm taking, updates on my trades, and documenting my journey through prediction markets.
Just decided to go full time with one goal right now:
$ 100K.
Infinite returns on Polymarket 101:
The "Microstrategy sells any bitcoin in may" market resolved to NO as expected.
After the market resolved the orderbook still had shares which you could redeem instantly
Someone just burned 100,000$ on Polymarket:
The account seems to be a crypto fund "Arca"
They bought 20M Yes shares on the "Microstrategy sells any bitcoin by may" market
This happened right as a UMA wallet revealed 200K votes for YES
The market settles to NO in 1H 45M....
A lot of people are confused on what is actually happening right now in the "Microstrategy Sells BTC in may" market:
The 'additional context' under the orderbook was issued by polymarket themselves
UMA then has to take into consideration that clarification by PM meaning they will vote NO.
That means that polymarket wont change any decision made by UMA as some people say, because they already issued their decision first.
The reveal phase of the votes for UMA already started (vote.uma.xyz/) and will end in 23 hours at which point the market will settle as NO.
Please don't burn your money hoping for a 1000x. This is over.
+$527.03 in one day from setting limit orders
The highest reward i have ever gotten on Polymarket from trading the microstrategy market
Holding shares was never without risk, however this was much safer if done correctly.
I was doing about 2500$ worth of shares every time, all i had to do was time it.
I also profited from flipping the shares so no adverse fills here.
Today I made +$2348 in profit on the microstrategy selling btc in may market, here is how:
Strategy disclosed that it sold 32 BTC between May 26–31, so new users pushed the price above 80c.
But the filing itself came after the market deadline.
Experienced traders bought NO because they knew:
information revealed after the market's deadline DID NOT count
I traded the NO side and closed +$1.9k, plus ~$400 in rebates through multiple trades.
Great start to the month!
Today I made +$2348 in profit on the microstrategy selling btc in may market, here is how:
Strategy disclosed that it sold 32 BTC between May 26–31, so new users pushed the price above 80c.
But the filing itself came after the market deadline.
Experienced traders bought NO because they knew:
information revealed after the market's deadline DID NOT count
I traded the NO side and closed +$1.9k, plus ~$400 in rebates through multiple trades.
Great start to the month!
My Polymarket Account:
polymarket.com/@lolakis
