Bringing advanced MLS analytics to the fan. A model that values every touch, tackle and contract. Contact: [email protected]
Joined October 2026
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The fourth most valuable outfield player in MLS this season, by my model, is a fullback on a $396k supplemental-roster deal: Anthony Markanich.
Only three outfield players have added more, Messi and Almirón among them.
That's what this account is for. How it works:
Not that many games with that high of impact tonight but the one worth watching as a neutral: Dallas vs. Columbus. Dallas may be able to sneak into the 1st seed while Columbus continues to claw for a playoff spot. Match preview thread below:
Soft spots? Neither defence has a clear one: opponents attack both down the left, center, and right in about the league's proportions.
Both are stingy (1.28 xG conceded a match, 6th- and 7th-fewest), and Columbus give up the 3rd-fewest chances from the middle of the box.
Biggest game of the weekend! U22 star Habroune goes up against the electric DP in Sargent. Who you got?
With MLS's official 22 Under 22 out, I figured I'd compile the model's top 22 by performance per 90.
Synchuk seems to be massively underrated by cast ballots. Underlying numbers are very strong, even though production isn't all the way there.
Biggest snubs? Biggest surprises?
Comparison to the official list below.
MLS Weekend in Review:
Six East teams. Three points apart. Two playoff places.
Cincinnati 63%
Columbus 44%
Red Bulls 29%
NYCFC 27%
Toronto 25%
D.C. United 13%
Who gets in?
What to watch for in MLS tonight (10/17):
Minnesota did Vancouver a favor. With St. Louis beaten, Vancouver's chance of finishing first in the West is 76%.
Win at Austin tonight (8:30 ET) and it's 85%, even with Thomas Müller listed out. Lose and it's 55%, with FC Dallas two points back.
What to watch for tonight in MLS (10/17):
The West's last playoff places get settled at 10:30 ET: Galaxy v San Diego and Portland v Colorado.
Minnesota's 3–2 win over St. Louis took them to 34 points, but Real Salt Lake, Portland and San Diego sit a point behind with a game in hand.
What to watch for in MLS tonight:
Biggest swing of the night: the Red Bulls. Beat Toronto and their playoff chances go to 74%. Lose and they drop to 31%.
Out West, LA Galaxy (50% → 89%) and Colorado (54% → 92%) both face direct rivals at 10:30 ET.
This Middlesbrough team is an absolute joy to watch. Tenacious and energetic with and without the ball.
Nashville have now entered coin flip territory for the single season MLS points record. They have 66 points with five to play. The league record is 74 (Inter Miami, 2024); New England had 73 in 2021. Our season simulations have them at a 54% chance to break it, 66% to at least tie it. Expected finish: about 75.
Remaining matches: San Jose, at Montréal, Philadelphia, Red Bulls, at Cincinnati. Philadelphia is the closest to a toss-up (Nashville with 48% win probability for that match).
The approach builds on public work I admire: Sarah Rudd's possession chains, Karun Singh's expected threat, VAEP, and American Soccer Analysis's goals added.