PhDing in Finance IESE Business School International Finance, Macro Bjj, tennis, Maremmano
Joined October 2026
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Matteo Mariotti retweeted
The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 4%, supposedly to tackle inflation.
There is just one problem with this decision. The Bank knows that much of the inflation we are suffering is being driven by rising oil and energy prices, largely resulting from conflict in the Middle East.
It also knows that raising interest rates cannot reduce those prices.
So why is it doing this?
The answer is that the Bank believes it must suppress demand elsewhere in the economy to compensate for rising energy costs.
In other words, it is deliberately making mortgages more expensive, increasing business borrowing costs, discouraging investment and reducing household spending power.
And all this when people are already struggling with higher energy bills. That is problem number one.
There is, however, another problem. Higher interest rates increase costs for businesses, which can then feed through into higher prices. They can, in that case, add to inflation rather than reduce it.
The Bank is imposing economic pain to address a problem its chosen policy cannot directly solve.
That is not sound economic management. It is the consequence of an economic dogma that refuses to recognise the difference between inflation caused by excessive demand and inflation caused by supply shocks.
When will we learn?
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
Pendant huit ans, l’Union européenne a mis la Pologne au ban pour « atteinte à l’État de droit ». Milliards de fonds gelés, procédure de l’article 7, leçons de morale quotidiennes.
Cette semaine, Donald Tusk, le chouchou de Bruxelles, a envoyé la police prendre d’assaut le Tribunal constitutionnel et y installer une présidente autoproclamée. Le Tribunal lui-même parle de coup d’État.
Silence total de la Commission.
Vous comprenez maintenant ce que signifie « État de droit » dans la bouche de Bruxelles : le droit de museler des opposants.
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
There is no better chart to visualize the absurdity of the euro’s introduction in Italy. In the 28 years before the euro, the Italian lira was devalued by 83% against the Deutsche Mark. Italy could not keep up with German productivity growth and chose currency devaluation to stay competitive. The last 27 years the currencies have been pegged, and productivity growth or real wage suppression are Italy’s only avenues to remain competitive.
Many companies struggle to grow productivity fast enough and must keep wages low. This explains why Italian real wages have stagnated for decades while others became more prosperous. One must really admire the calm way Italians accept that. The euro in its current form has not made sense in the past and will not work going forward. The next euro crisis, which will likely begin in France, may become its final chapter.
This is eye-opening, Italy’s real wages have stagnated for a generation. OECD data show real gross wages per employee down 1.6% from 1990 to 2024, while the OECD average rose 35%, the US 50.5%, the UK 48.4%, France 33.4% and Germany 32.9%. Joining the euro removed Italy’s long-used Lira devaluation escape valve. With the exchange rate locked, the only options were faster productivity growth or lower relative wages. Italy has largely failed at the first.
Labour productivity growth has been near zero since the late 1990s, far below peers. Unit labour costs rose relative to Germany as wages outpaced meagre productivity gains. Industrial production is now roughly 23% below its 2000 level, with sharp losses in textiles, clothing and intermediate goods. Manufacturing remains important, but much lower-end capacity that thrived on periodic devaluations has been squeezed or closed.
The result is prolonged internal devaluation, with stagnant or falling real wages containing costs. Some firms upgraded into higher-value niches and exports held up better than volumes, but workers and large parts of industry have stagnated. Without higher productivity, the euro’s rigidities continue to force adjustment onto wages rather than the currency. Will politicians ever admit that introducing the euro in Italy was a huge mistake?
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
Review of Economic Studies is happy to announce the launch of the new journal, Review of Economic Studies: Insights. This is an open-access, general-interest economics journal that will publish short papers with a fast review process and accept/reject decisions.
1/4
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
Agghiacciante.
La crescita dei salari reali 1990-2024. 🇮🇹Italia è *negativa* -1.6%.
In Francia, per dire, è +33%. Media OCSE: +35%
Ci sorprendiamo di esodo giovanile o di manifestazioni di piazza?
(Fonte UPB, @mariasoleli per @ilpost)
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
So, basically, 500 million Europeans expect 300 million Americans to protect them from 120 million Russians who can’t even defeat 40 million Ukrainians while those 500 million Europeans don’t even realize they are being conquered by 2 billion Muslims who claim they are being persecuted by 8 million Israelis. Is that about right?
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Matteo Mariotti retweeted
Ik heb voor 8 Europese landen de officiële cijfers over zedendelicten naar herkomst naast elkaar gezet.
Steeds hetzelfde patroon: een veelvoud t.o.v. de autochtone bevolking, gecorrigeerd voor leeftijd en geslacht. Gesorteerd op het gemiddelde over alle landen.
Bovenaan:
Afghanistan ~4,0x
Midden-Oosten en Noord-Afrika ~3,8x
Irak ~3,5x
Syrië, Afrika bezuiden de Sahara, Marokko, Somalië ~3,2 tot 3,4x
Onderaan:
EU ~1,2x
Oost-Azië ~0,85x
Westerse landen ~0,7x
De patronen:
1. Herkomst bepaalt het beeld, niet het land
Over alle 70 datapunten verklaart de herkomstgroep 59% van de verschillen (R² = 0,59). Het land, en daarmee de meetmethode, verklaart maar 23%. Wie zegt “dat komt door de manier van meten” verklaart dus het kleinste deel, het grootste deel is herkomst!
2. Overal dezelfde volgorde
In elk land met data zitten dezelfde groepen bovenaan. Meestal 2 tot 7x het autochtone niveau, in Finland bij Irakezen 9,5x.
3. Het is geen “migranten”-effect
Oost-Aziaten zitten overal rond of onder de baseline, EU-burgers rond 1 tot 1,9x, westerse migranten in Nederland precies 1,0x. Herkomst maakt het verschil, niet migratie als zodanig.
4. Meetmethode bepaalt de hoogte, niet de richting
Landen die op nationaliteit tellen (VK, Duitsland, Finland) komen hoger uit dan landen die op herkomst tellen (Denemarken, Nederland, Noorwegen). Wie naturaliseert verdwijnt uit de groep, wat overblijft zijn vooral recente aankomers. Maar ook met de strengste methode blijft de oververtegenwoordiging staan.
5. Inkomen en opleiding verklaren het niet weg
Zweden corrigeert ook voor inkomen en opleiding. Centraal-Azië (vooral Afghanen) zakt dan van 9,4x naar 5,6x. Kleiner, niet weg.
6. Hoe ernstiger het delict, hoe groter het verschil
Denemarken, Midden-Oosten en Noord-Afrika: 2,5x bij alle zedendelicten, 4,9x bij verkrachting. Afrika bezuiden de Sahara: 2,5x tegen 7,0x.
7. Waarom ontbreken Frankrijk, Italië en anderen w.o België? Niet weggelaten. Ze publiceren de cijfers niet zo dat je de vergelijking kunt maken.
Frankrijk: etnische statistiek wettelijk sterk beperkt, alleen Frans tegenover buitenlands. Buitenlanders zijn 13,5% van de verdachten van zedendelicten, bij circa 7% van de bevolking.
Italië: alleen Italiaans tegenover buitenlands. 42% van de verkrachtingsverdachten is buitenlander, bij 8,7% van de bevolking.
Zwitserland: nationaliteit alleen voor alle misdrijven samen, niet per delict.
Oostenrijk: geen gepubliceerde tabel, alleen losse Kamervragen.
België en Ierland: geen nationaliteit van verdachten per delict.
Kanttekeningen:
dit zijn verdachten, aanklachten of veroordelingen, afhankelijk van het land. Aangiftebereidheid kan per groep verschillen. In absolute aantallen heeft de meerderheid van de daders een autochtone achtergrond. Het gaat om het risico per persoon. En R² beschrijft hoe consistent het patroon is, niet waarom het bestaat.
Conclusie:
acht landen met één duidelijk patroon. En dat patroon wordt voor het grootste deel verklaard door herkomst.
Consequentie:
Bij het verlenen van de gunst van een verblijfsvergunning kunnen land bepalen wie daar wel en wie daar niet in aanmerking voor komt.
Bronnen:
VK: The Economist (okt. 2026), op basis van MoJ/ONS via Migration Observatory
Duitsland: BKA, Polizeiliche Kriminalstatistik 2024 (T40, T62); Destatis
Spanje: INE, Estadística de Condenados 2024-2025; INE, Estadística Continua de Población
Finland: Tilastokeskus, StatFin 13yy en 11rg (2021-2025)
Zweden: Brå, rapport 2021:9, tabellbilaga 1 (2015-2018)
Denemarken: Danmarks Statistik, STRAFNA4, STRAF40, FOLK2 (2021-2025)
Nederland: CBS, 81947NED, 37325, 85656NED, 85510NED (2018-2025)
Noorwegen: SSB, siktelser og innvandringsbakgrunn (dec. 2024)
Frankrijk: SSMSI/INSEE. Italië: ISTAT. Zwitserland: BFS. Oostenrijk: BMI/Parlament.
Eigen berekening.
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
I posted the materials for my second-year PhD course, broadly on "Identification in Macroeconomics" -- basically a back-and-forth between structural models and data, both time-series and cross-sectional, with a focus on business-cycle questions.
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
Il potere non viene mai conferito dalle elezioni. Questa è una convinzione formale ma non sostanziale.
Il potere viene sempre conferito dalle élites e gli incidenti formali come perdere un'elezione o ignorare i diritti umani in caso di obbligo vaccinale o usare il codice penale contro i nemici e sospenderlo per gli amici sono gli eterni strumenti a disposizione del potere.
Le élites cadono quando una élite nuova subentra alla vecchia.
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
After almost 10 years of work corporateownershipdata.com now makes available all publicly available ownership records of 7,156 publicly traded firms, not just the S&P 500, including dual-class shares.
Se parliamo di “Migrante occidentale” si totalmente d’accordo.
Altrimenti sono solo un peso sulle finanze pubbliche
La mente é catturata dai “barconi”. Ma sono briciole. I numeri veri raccontano di ingegneri edili, infermieri, insegnanti, badanti, medici. Favorirne l’integrazione é una politica win-win. 👇
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Matteo Mariotti retweeted
È come se al secondo turno ci fossero andate la Meloni e la Schlein e gli elettori di Lega, Forza Italia e Vannacci avessero votato tutti la Schlein (tutti: il 100%).
E anche la metà di tutti quelli che si sono astenuti al primo turno.
E anche il 70% delle nulle al primo turno.
Vincendo in tutte le città comprese quelle che al primo turno erano al 73% per la Meloni.
Porco cane Lula che campagna elettorale che hai fatto...
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
Giovani violenti: gridano contro il capitalismo e intanto desiderano gratis i suoi simboli più costosi. Il successo altrui diventa prova di un’ingiustizia. Questa cultura non nasce nelle periferie ma fra gli intellettuali
corriere.it/opinioni/26_otto…
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
Der "POINT OF NO RETURN" in der Lehre von Von Mises:
"Ein Staat wird in an dem Punkt beinahe unreformierbar, an dem die Mehrheit der Bevölkerung finanziell oder strukturell vom Staat abhängig ist (Staatsangestellte, Beamte, Subventions- oder Förderungsempfänger, Bezieher von Transferleistungen etc.) Sobald die Gruppe derjenigen, die netto vom Staat profitiert oder alimentiert wird, größer ist als die Gruppe, bei der dies nicht der Fall ist, blockiert das System Reformen, da die Mehrheit aus Eigeninteresse für den Erhalt oder Ausbau staatlicher Leistungen stimmt."
Das ist genau die shice, die wir haben.
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
Nel momento in cui il Parastato gramsciano diventa più grande della parte produttiva della Nazione il mantenimento del suo potere sarà garantita da una base elettorale che non cesserà mai di essere maggioranza in quanto o agente del Parastato o sua beneficiaria.
A quel punto l'unico criterio di funzionamento dello Stato sarà la creazione di debito sempre maggiore sino al fallimento.
La via alternativa alla Rivoluzione d'ottobre non giunge a una fine diversa da essa.
Very nice lecture by @R2Rsquared about public debt and financial repression
@bse_barcelona @BancoSabadell
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Matteo Mariotti retweeted
La Sinistra ha bisogno che i popoli siano oppressi perché solo l'esistenza di "poveri" da tutelare giustifica l'esistenza di un apparato di commissari politici pagati dallo Stato che si occupano delle necessità dei poveri, sempre badando bene di mantenerli in stato di perenne dipendenza dai "servizi sociali" che vengono loro erogati.
Senza "oppressi" la Sinistra in quanto clero politico non potrebbe esistere. Ecco perché nascono continuamente "nuove povertà", "nuovi diritti", "nuove discriminazioni" (lgbtp), "nuove ingiustizie". Perché la loro esistenza giustifica quella di coloro che se ne occupano.
La radice del problema sta nell'irrisolto rapporto con il lavoro, cosa che Marx non capì mentre Sorel e Lafargue sì.
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
🧵In 2019, California billionaire tax crusader Gabriel Zucman made an astonishing claim to the NY Times: billionaires pay a lower avg tax rate than poor people in the US.
I noticed something fishy though: Zucman's NYT chart did not match his own published data from a 2018 paper
Matteo Mariotti retweeted
California's Billionaire Tax Act would collect roughly $30 billion. Accounting for lost income taxes from departures, the mean Net Present Value is negative $39 billion, from Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh nber.org/papers/w35899
