Triangulating markets through technicals, sentiment, & macro MO: A Community for traders seeking an uncommon edge https://xitter.cf/t.co/4VCCRiG5bE
Austin TX
Joined December 2015
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MACRO OPS retweeted
Comfort Systems (FIX), a former portfolio holding, is another textbook example of the Dual Trend System doing exactly what it was designed to do: identify strong trends, capture the move, and help manage risk when conditions change.
MACRO OPS retweeted
Every regime change prints a red spade. And a decade of ordinary cards does not teach you to see the trick card.
Only trick cards do.
MACRO OPS retweeted
JEFFERIES DESK:
“.. in the last 10 days, we’ve been net for sale in Tech to the tune of > $1B on 7 of those days.
.. And for reference, here’s our net trading flows over a 20D period, one of the more dramatic net selling periods we’ve seen in Tech in recent years.”
MACRO OPS retweeted
Given the strength in consumer staples today, it seems like a good time to revisit a study from the Chart of the Week series, highlighting instances when the sector posted a 10-day rate of change (ROC) of at least 9% either in the 10 sessions leading up to an S&P 500 record high or in the 10 sessions immediately following one.
MACRO OPS retweeted
The GRU hacked into Jared Kushner's iPhone. Dutch military intelligence (MIVD) then recruited a GRU spy who gave them access to the hacked phone. What MIVD discovered was that Kushner had access to two bank accounts --one Azerbaijani, the other Israeli --where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Emirati ruler Mohammed bin Zayed deposited money. It sounds like a slightly far-fetched episode of "Slow Horses," but it's real. And it proves just how eye-poppingly corrupt this administration was and continues to be as its "special envoy" decides the fate of tens of millions in Europe in the Middle East. Simply incredible reporting by Matthew Cole, drawn from his new book on Kushner. vanityfair.com/story/jared-k…
MACRO OPS retweeted
The SKEW Index has reached an extreme level.
Over the past 10 years, this has happened only a handful of times. In the last three instances, it preceded significant downside pressure on equities—not immediately, but weeks later.
Current price action looks more like 2021. If this analogy holds, we could see a year-end rally before a downturn in January 2027.
*The CBOE SKEW Index measures the perceived tail risk of extreme negative returns in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, based on the prices of out-of-the-money options (with 100 indicating a normal distribution and higher readings signaling greater demand for crash protection).
MACRO OPS retweeted
Probably my 1000th time reading this but worth reminding everyone again why Druck will forever be the GOAT
MACRO OPS retweeted
Here’s the midterm election-year scorecard, comparing 2026 with the composite of years when the S&P 500 closed within 3% of a record high on day 188, the seasonal low. Momentum, interest rates, and inflation are all at their most unfavorable levels in the dataset, while market breadth is the weakest on record. But who knows? Maybe the market will deliver the average 17% gain next year after all.
MACRO OPS retweeted
The last 3 times since the Russell 2000 $IWM had consecutive closes below the 200-day for the first time in at least 200 sessions.
MACRO OPS retweeted
Another notable divergence suggesting caution ahead.
Again, this is not a "sell everything" signal.
However, if confirmed by a bearish technical setup, the odds of a deeper correction increase significantly.
Divergences don't last forever. Something's gotta give.
MACRO OPS retweeted
"Narrow Market Top" setup? Only one bellwether—Financials—has confirmed the S&P 500's latest high; the others still have much ground to make up. That's the same number of red flags as March Y2K. At the 2007 top, all 8 were flashing warnings. At minimum, investors should be uncomfortable. #SP500 #Stocks
MACRO OPS retweeted
There are several notable bearish divergences at the moment, and this one worries me a bit.
Whenever the correlation between the S&P 500 and homebuilders has been this low, equities have experienced significant drawdowns.
The tape remains bullish, so this shouldn't be interpreted as a "sell everything" signal. However, it could be an interesting setup when combined with other technical indicators that confirm a potential short.
A strong negative correlation between a rising SPX and falling XHB can warn of broader equity risk because homebuilders are highly sensitive to interest rates, consumer confidence, and housing demand—key leading indicators of economic health—so sustained weakness there often signals underlying deterioration that the wider market may eventually follow, as seen in pre-crisis divergences.
Worth watching!
MACRO OPS retweeted
Already predicting this
This is their gameplay
Executives at OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI companies are reportedly preparing for a public and political backlash after a catastrophic AI event, possibly as early as 2027 (via Axios).
Axios reports that many industry insiders expect a major incident within the next 6–12 months, most likely a cyberattack disrupting banking, internet access, power or water.
OpenAI confirms it runs preparedness exercises, but says: "These scenarios are not treated as inevitable, but are meant to help us prepare for a variety of circumstances."
Anthropic declined to comment.
MACRO OPS retweeted
When a trader can’t close a losing position, we call it denial. When he can’t take profits on a winning one, we call it greed. The chop in equities has left traders round-tripping their positions, and I’ve heard the same frustration over and over. But neither denial nor greed touches what these traders are actually holding onto.
This week’s essay is about what we’re unwilling to let go of, and why, more than a decade in, I still notice this same tendency in myself.
In markets: the standoff between equities and energy is unresolved. The Nasdaq is holding its breakout while Brent holds the structure of its head-and-shoulders continuation and WTI flags above its breakout level. Feeder cattle recompleted, soybeans are back at their neckline, and soybean oil keeps coiling. In currencies, the Aussie is bouncing off its neckline, the pound is testing the floor of a 15-month triangle for the fourth time, and EUR/AUD is on the verge of breaking down.
Read this week's issue: research.macro-ops.com/p/ope…
MACRO OPS retweeted
One of the big risks of the Iran war many warned about early on was it going regional. It is going VERY regional now and it feels like that fact is being ignored by most.
MACRO OPS retweeted
Not only has the US never televised public executions in its history, but not even the Nazi defendants sentenced to death at the Nuremberg trials had their executions televised (it was deemed violative of the human rights that post-WW2 institutions were trying to re-establish).
The most amazing part of this is that Nidal Hasan is paraplegic and close to 60. So this disgusting spectacle will involve rolling him out in a wheelchair, then live-streaming his body as it's pumped full of bullets.
When I and others pointed out last night that public executions are carried out only by the countries we're told are the most primitive and savage (Afghanistan, North Korea), MAGA enthusisasts replied that we were too weak. Pummeling an old guy in a wheelchair with bullets -- as a reality TV show -- seems like an odd and dubious defintion of "strength," let alone an expression of the western values they endlessly claim they and they alone are trying to salvage.
BREAKING: The Pentagon says it will livestream the firing squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Malik Hasan. apnews.com/article/fort-hood…
