Blogging on Macro trends and Credit since 2009 - Telegram channel: https://xitter.gq/t.co/t7tvf2slVd YouTube Channel: https://xitter.gq/t.co/c5DZyVMlaQ
Joined September 2013
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Facts:
- Firms with less than 20 employees make up 90% of all companies in the US
- Small and medium-sized firms employ half of all workers in the US
- Small and medium-sized firms generate half of all revenue in corporate America
- Small firms create around 3mn jobs every year
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
France’s credit score was put on a negative outlook by Fitch Ratings, in an unscheduled move that highlights the country’s struggle to fix its public finances bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
US gasoline is up 34.2% and heating oil 74.2% over the past year as voters head to the midterms. Average pump prices now top any point of Biden's term, a threat to incumbents as war in Iran disrupts oil and gas trade. #Midterms #GasPrices #Oil
oilprice.com/Energy/Gas-Pric…
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
Free newsletter: Anthropic’s S-1 uses an anomalous quarter to con investors into becoming its exit liquidity, and explicitly states that its costs will grow aggressively as margins decline. Its $430bn in non-cancellable contracts are yet to start hitting.
wheresyoured.at/exit-liquidi…
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
The Nasdaq 100 just had its worst day since June as the AI selloff hit chips
$INTC closed -28.6% at $65.76, its worst day since 1974, after weak guidance
$RDDT -29.2% in the worst day in its history on a soft Q4 outlook and falling Google referrals
$AMD -10.9%, $QCOM -11.1%, $DELL -10.8% and $COIN -10.6%
The chip index fell 7.2% and $NVDA lost 4.2%
S&P 500 -1.8% to 7,580
Dow -1.1% to 51,770
Nasdaq -2.9% to 25,437, down 5.3% in October for its worst month since March 2025
Gold -3.7% to a one-year low near $3,884 and Bitcoin slipped to $76,800
Three days ago the S&P was sitting within 1.2% of a record. Now the Nasdaq 100 is down 6.7% in a month as investors finally ask when all that AI spending pays off. The cash burn story isn't going away over the weekend
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
🩸BLACK FRIDAY
$1.7 TRILLION wiped out from US stocks today as AI stocks collapse.
$100,000,000,000 wiped out from crypto since Binance suffered the biggest heist in human history.
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
When you’re down 26% and the bloodbath still isn’t over, you need liquidity to post margin, handle redemptions, and manage the book.
Not surprising that some of the big players in distressed and leveraged finance are circling their positions and looking to buy on the cheap.
“Nasdaq 100 is now down 4.4%, with $1.8 trillion in value wiped out.”
On 2 October on Substack we flagged "the Ides of October" as a potential inflection (15th of October): rising bond volatility (MOVE) spilling into credit, CCC canaries under pressure, elevated dispersion, concentrated AI/tech beta, and ongoing French sovereign stress. We argued for a more defensive posture and the value of international diversification.
The sequence has played out.
The underperformance has been concentrated where we expected—tech hardware, AI proxies, and high-beta Asian markets.
Gold and silver selling hard is typical of “margin call” à la October 2008. When liquidity is scarce, you sell what you can, not what you want. Weaker hands are getting “challenged”.
Broad equity and high-yield beta are less rewarded; security selection, quality, and selective international diversification (including real-rate EM fixed income) retain relative value.
This is a regime, not a one-day event.
Stay selective. The canaries are still singing.
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
Today shows exactly why I own oil and natural gas: they diversify a portfolio when inflation rises.
Gold and silver are putting me in the red today, but oil and gas are doing their job and keeping plenty of green elsewhere in the portfolio.
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
UBS projects silver at $70 an ounce by December, $75 by mid-2027 and $80 by September 2027.
The bank projects a sixth consecutive annual deficit for the silver market in 2026.
Analysts in a Reuters poll expect silver to average $66.75 in 2027, down from this year’s forecast of $70.30.
They cite weakening photovoltaic demand, substitution in manufacturing and cautious investment sentiment after this year’s swings.
Source: UBS, Reuters
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
North America’s five most valuable gold companies have lost almost $140 billion in combined market value from their 52-week highs, with Agnico Eagle alone accounting for more than $40 billion.
Gold fell as much as 3.2% to $3,891.67 an ounce on Friday, its weakest in a year, and is on track for a drop of about 6% in October, its worst for the month since 2008.
Bullion trades about 28% below its record close of $5,419.83 on January 28.
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
En route to become one of my favorite stories to explain how messy the energy transition is proving:
Coal mine shifts to EV trucks to save on diesel.
📄: wsj.com/world/asia/these-tru…
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
Italy’s inflation jump is the dramatic result of the Iran war, Giorgetti says bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via @FlaviaRotondi @donatopmancini
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
Anthropic may not secure investment-grade rating after IPO, Blackstone tells investors - FT ft.com/content/59383c7f-8d82…
Macronomics 🇫🇷 retweeted
🚨 BIG TECH is getting absolutely hammered.
16 major tech stocks have already plunged more than 20% from their 52-week peaks.
And some of the losses are staggering.
AppLovin: −68%
Coinbase: −61%
CoreWeave: −55%
Intel: −54%
Strategy: −52%
Oracle: −51%
Even Alphabet, Broadcom and Meta are down more than 20%, while NVIDIA has fallen 16%.
Meanwhile, Apple is sitting just 1% below its high.
That's the striking part of this selloff.
The headline index is holding up relatively well, while entire corners of the AI, software and crypto sectors have already suffered MASSIVE drawdowns.
The Nasdaq says 9%. A lot of individual stocks tell a very different story.
Writer: Oliver
Why is French such an outlier? Because we kind of like doing revolutions...
Many European countries are grappling with political strife and fiscal strain. So when it comes to protests, why is France such an outlier? economist.com/graphic-detail…
Gold: Silver Ratio (GSR) at 79 today
Hey @grok, is that actually the high for 2026?