1/Anthropic’s S-1 is out. 2/ Revenue, quarter by quarter ($M) Q1'25: 376 Q2'25: 787 Q3'25: 1,382 Q4'25: 2,040 Q1'26: 4,731 Q2'26: 11,555 Q2'26 revenue was up 1,368% YoY. Compute & infra costs were up 300% over the same period. Q2'26 was the first quarter with positive GAAP operating income: $974M. 3/ How “Run-Rate Revenue” is defined Trailing-28-day consumption fees × 13 + monthly subscription fees × 12 Three caveats from the S-1: -It includes customers later found to be violating the usage policy -It is seasonal: usage dips in summer and winter holidays 4/ Revenue is recognized gross When Claude is sold through the AWS, GCP or Azure marketplaces, Anthropic is the principal. It books the full amount as revenue, and the cloud provider’s fee goes into Sales, marketing & partnerships. The marketplace share of revenue has climbed fast: 11% (2023) → 32% (2024) → 47% (2025) → 48% (H1'26) Adjust for this before comparing multiples with companies that report net. 5/ Distillation The S-1 puts a number on it: “we estimate that revenue from such customers represented approximately 5% to 7% of our revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2026” These are customers violating the usage policy or commercial terms. Applied to ~$33B of 9M revenue, that’s roughly $1.7–2.3B. Enforcement was stepped up in Aug–Sep, and the company expects the share to decline. The S-1 says the estimate “requires judgment and may change.” 6/ Visibility is low RPO at 6/30/26: $10.8B ~75% of that is recognized in the next 12 months, so cRPO ≈ $8.1B Deferred revenue: $1.65B Q2 annualized revenue is ~$46B, so cRPO covers less than 20% of it. 80% of revenue is consumption-based, and next year’s revenue depends almost entirely on usage. 7/ The compute bill Disclosed commitments: Broadcom TPU leases: ~$161B SpaceXAI (NVIDIA GPUs): up to $121B, ~$3.1B a month from Dec’26 Google: ≥$115B, plus $125–150B more of TPU capacity in 2028–31 Amazon: ≥$110B Microsoft: ≥$45B Nscale: ~$45B Lambda: ~$41B AMD: >$20B That adds up to roughly $780–810B. 8/ The mismatch to watch Revenue is variable and consumption-driven. Compute costs are fixed, multi-year and take-or-pay. On top of that, the Broadcom leases, the credit agreement and the convertible notes include cross-default provisions. This is the single most important risk in the filing. 9/ Demand is real NRR ~900% (ex-Pro/Max) Customers paying more than $100K / $1M / $10M a year: 11,900+ / 1,900+ / ~250 No single customer was >10% of 9M’26 revenue Top 5 customers ≈ 25% of 9M revenue Q3: 79% of revenue came from outside the top 5, up from 64% in Q1 Claude Enterprise users who also use Claude Code spend ~20x more than those who don’t 10/ Dilution $77B of convertible capacity: Google $20B, Amazon $15B, Broadcom $42B, settled in shares at a trailing VWAP Google can buy up to $10B more stock at the IPO price A Public Benefit Fund already holds 5% of fully diluted shares, and can get up to +2% more for every 50% rise in the share price