Market insights, investment ideas and portfolio strategy for self-directed investors. Telling it like it is since 1998.
Australia
Joined June 2009
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Marcus Today retweeted
One rebound session doesn't fix last week. The midterms have damaged the AI trade, made building data centres harder and funding data centres more expensive.
Buying in this market is a function of risk first, potential returns second. An acceptable risk-reward ratio is not apparent yet. We're not that clever and not that cute.
@Marcus_Today
On one day last week the VIX jumped 70%, yet the ASX 200 finished the week up 1.27%. A big good day, followed immediately by a bigger bad day.
Marcus has a rule for exactly this.
It’s in Marcus Weekly at 11am.
marcustoday.com.au/marcus-we…
Monday morning briefing: what moved markets and what matters this week.
Chips rebounded on Friday, the SOX up 4.2% and $AMD up 11%, despite strong jobs data that all but sealed a December Fed hike. Nvidia’s board also opened a probe into whether Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign spy plot.
SPI up 20.
buzzsprout.com/1853541/episo…
Cash doesn't panic, doesn't get margin calls and doesn't need a rescue package.
@henryj007 makes the case for holding cash while the risks keep piling up.
marcustoday.com.au/2026/11/t…
There are two reasons the RBA keeps hiking. Neither is as simple as the headlines say.
General advice only. Not personal financial advice.
Japan just entered a bear market. TOPIX fell 6.29% and Korea’s Kospi was halted as Samsung and SK Hynix slumped.
ASX 200 down only 44 as banks and supermarkets cushioned the fall, but up 1.27% for the week. SNAS, which shorts the Nasdaq, rose 12.0%.
buzzsprout.com/1853541/episo…
The market goes up slow and comes down fast, and there's no rush to buy when the herd turns.
@MarcusPadley on what a 3% fall in the US market really tells you.
marcustoday.com.au/2026/11/t…
All four Australian majors trade at a premium to overseas banks with similar businesses. CBA is on 24.7x forward earnings. The average for eight offshore banks is 12.7x.
The SOX semiconductor index was down 12% overnight, its worst day since March 2020. It now trades on 16x forward earnings, down from 33x in June and the lowest since 2023.
NEXTDC's board calls the raid opportunistic, and the buyers say they have no intention of bidding "at this time".
@MarcusPadley unpacks what that wording leaves open.
marcustoday.com.au/2026/11/a…
Marcus Today retweeted
It's not every day you see a big good day followed by a big bad day. Last night's move is right up there with some of the biggest market moments of the last few years.
Wall St had its worst night since Liberation Day. Chip stocks led the selloff, and Barclays expects volatility-control funds to sell roughly $135bn of US equity futures in the next 24-48 hours, the most since December 2018.
A brutal night on Wall Street, with the post-election rally gone in a blink.
The Mag7 just lost about $900bn in a single session. The Dow fell 3.44% and the VIX jumped 68.81%.
$MU fell 17.5% and $AMD 17.3%, with chips having their worst day since March 2020.
buzzsprout.com/1853541/episo…
The ASX closed up 231 points or 2.61% on Thursday, its largest gain since April.
Buyers returned after the Democrats swept the midterms. 8 of 11 sectors higher, 3 lower.
$NXT.AX closed up 50.8% after GMG and Digital Realty bought 57.25m shares.
buzzsprout.com/1853541/episo…
Why do miners tend to hedge at the wrong time?
@henryj007 puts the question to Sean Russo of Noah's Rule, recorded live at @IMARC_Mining 2026.
buzzsprout.com/1852332/episo…
Marcus Today retweeted
We've decided to let the overnight reaction mature before believing this pivot point. Quite often, after a big good day, there is a reversal the next day, before the trends develop. At first sight this is shaping up as a significant pivot point if bond yields top out, inflation fears peak and the US dollar drops.
If these themes can hold for more than a day, we will be looking to buy something. There is a good chance this is a one-day wonder.
The Dow just had its best day since April 2025. Up 1,569 points, 3.03%, after Democrats won both the House and the Senate and Trump accepted the results.
US crude fell more than 8% after Vance blamed the Iran war for the losses. Gold ran hard and yields dropped.
SPI up 181.
buzzsprout.com/1853541/episo…
US midterm results hit Asia. Data centre states flipped to the Democrats, putting pressure on Korea, Taiwan and Japan.
ASX 200 dropped 52 to 8,835. Household spending rose 6.8% year on year, above the 6.1% forecast.
XYZ jumped 6.1% and CCX soared 13.9%.
buzzsprout.com/1853541/episo…