NFL Projections Lead @EstablishTheRun

Joined September 2010
The Raiders are currently running one of the NFL's more unique offensive structures in recent history. Since Brock Bowers returned in Week 3, only 6.3% of their plays have come in 11 personnel. It's even more dramatic in the last two weeks with 2 of 124 (1.6%) offensive snaps coming in 11. The 2022 Ravens have the lowest usage of 11 personnel at 12.3% over the last five NFL seasons. Looking at just this season, the 49ers' 32% rate of 11 personnel is the second lowest in the NFL behind Kubiak's Raiders. Not that there was much doubt, but Brock Bowers is the Raiders' WR1 and Kubiak is leveraging that skillset to a point we haven't seen in recent memory. (source: SIS play-by-play data)
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba posted a 43% target share in Week 7's win over the Chiefs. It's his 8th regular season game with a >40% target share since the start of last season. No other WR has more than 3 in that span (Zay Flowers, Ja'Marr Chase). In order for any other WR to accumulate 8 games with a >40% target share (Davante Adams), you need to start counting from Week 9 the 2021 season. It took JSN 24 games to amass 8 games with a >40% target share. It took Davante Adams 54 games (2021 W9–2024 W15). JSN's target domination is legitimately other-worldly.
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Jeanty heads into MNF leading NFL running backs in: - Targets (43) - Receptions (34) - Receiving Yards (312) - Receiving TDs (3) Meanwhile, his ranks among 26 RBs with 75+ carries: - 26th with 3.1 yds/carry - 25th with 10 missed tackles forced - 26th with five 10+ yd runs
The Ashton Jeanty efficiency has been horrendous in the rushing game, but his pass-game involvement is among the league's best at RB. RB targets per route run leaders through Week 6: 1. Ashton Jeanty - 29.8% (37 targets) 2. Jahmyr Gibbs - 29.6% (34) 3. Bijan Robinson - 29.0% (27) 4. Christian McCaffrey - 27.6% (35) 5. Kenneth Walker III - 27.3% (21) 6. Kyren Williams - 26.4% (39) 7. Chase Brown - 24.6% (28) 8. Kenneth Gainwell - 22.7% (17) 9. D'Andre Swift - 22.6% (21) 10. Aaron Jones Sr. - 22.2% (18) (min. 75 routes run, excludes Week 7 TNF between NE/CHI - data via SIS)
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The Ashton Jeanty efficiency has been horrendous in the rushing game, but his pass-game involvement is among the league's best at RB. RB targets per route run leaders through Week 6: 1. Ashton Jeanty - 29.8% (37 targets) 2. Jahmyr Gibbs - 29.6% (34) 3. Bijan Robinson - 29.0% (27) 4. Christian McCaffrey - 27.6% (35) 5. Kenneth Walker III - 27.3% (21) 6. Kyren Williams - 26.4% (39) 7. Chase Brown - 24.6% (28) 8. Kenneth Gainwell - 22.7% (17) 9. D'Andre Swift - 22.6% (21) 10. Aaron Jones Sr. - 22.2% (18) (min. 75 routes run, excludes Week 7 TNF between NE/CHI - data via SIS)
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Most yards after contact per carry among RBs through Week 6: 1. Jaylen Warren - 4.46 2. Ollie Gordon II - 3.98 3. Kenneth Walker III - 3.90 4. Kyle Monangai - 3.80 5. Bijan Robinson - 3.66 6. Bhayshul Tuten - 3.49 7. Bucky Irving - 3.28 8. Braelon Allen - 3.23 9. Brian Robinson - 3.04 10. Chuba Hubbard - 2.97 (min. 40 carries, excludes Week 7 TNF between NE/CHI - data via SIS)
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How many tight ends can the Rams legally play at one time?
Rams WR Puka Nacua left practice early today due to a calf injury.
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Steelers leaning heavily into the pass with 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers - 1st in NFL with +6.3% PROE - 1st in Red Zone PROE 71% of the Steelers' TDs scored in Rodgers' 22 starts have come via the pass. 12 of 13 TDs this season League average is 61.6% since start of 2025
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Mark Dankenbring retweeted
Worth noting that Josh Jacobs was allowed to be in team meetings at the facility, lifting sessions, medical treatments, any other non-football activities. Also note MarShawn Lloyd (49th in EPA/rush among 54 qualifiers) and Kaleb Johnson (53rd) have been quite bad. Not all their fault of course, offensive line a mess as well. Talked about Jacobs long-term outlook and a lot more on yesterday's Rest of Season Top-150 show with @MarkDank, @JackMiller02, @notJDaigle. Free here or on pod feeds: youtu.be/yf2xrEns2pI?si=aGX_…
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Falcons made it a one-score finish against Chicago (31-23 final), but Bears eased off D'Andre Swift and leaned on Roschon Johnson once they took a 31-7 lead with 14:56 left in the 4th quarter. Before 31-7 lead: - Swift 39 snaps, 14 carries, 21 routes, 5 tgts - Roschon 16 snaps, 5 carries, 7 routes, 2 tgts After 31-7 lead: - Swift 4 snaps, 2 carries, 1 route, 0 tgts - Roschon 12 snaps, 8 carries, 3 routes, 0 tgts
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Mark Dankenbring retweeted
This week's Team-by-Team show is up. Was a ton of interesting spots to discuss with @evansilva ahead of Week 7. Free here or on pod feeds. youtu.be/QxD4XudBWPA?si=wM5Y…
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Jaydon Blue waived. Turns out the "Louis Vuitton cleats" week was maybe the biggest red flag in fantasy football history.
We have signed RB Elijah Mitchell to the Practice Squad and released C James Brockermeyer and RB Ian Wheeler from the unit. We have also waived RB Jaydon Blue. RB Carson Steele has been Waived/Injured.
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Bijan has a 10.8% tgt share from Michael Penix on the season. It was 35.9% with Cooper Rush. Not really concerned long term, though. Bijan had an 18.8% target share from Penix in 2025, nearly identical to the 18.9% he saw from Kirk Cousins.
The Bears blitzed on 59% of the Falcons' drop backs in Week 6, their highest blitz rate of the season. Forced Bijan Robinson to block on 48% of his pass snaps (14 of 29), the highest pass block rate of Bijan's career. Bijan had just two catches for -8 receiving yards on the day. Seems like a pretty great game plan from Dennis Allen to neutralize one of the Falcons' biggest receiving weapons.
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The Bears blitzed on 59% of the Falcons' drop backs in Week 6, their highest blitz rate of the season. Forced Bijan Robinson to block on 48% of his pass snaps (14 of 29), the highest pass block rate of Bijan's career. Bijan had just two catches for -8 receiving yards on the day. Seems like a pretty great game plan from Dennis Allen to neutralize one of the Falcons' biggest receiving weapons.
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Michael Wilson entered Week 5 having run a route on 95% of Jacoby Brissett's drop backs this season. Wilson has run 81% and 80% of the routes in the two games without Marvin Harrison Jr., per SIS. Strange to see that number dip. Not really sure what's going on there, but Wilson has just 14 targets over his last two games after amassing 44 in his first 4 contests.
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Mark Dankenbring retweeted
From the @ringernflshow on Jalen Hurts, the Eagles, sleep, the timeline and why everyone is on the same page.
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Fun times setting lineups on a Sunday morning
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Deshaun Watson, fresh off a twice-torn achilles, currently leads all QBs with 12 designed rush attempts on the season. Giga-freak Josh Allen is in second with 9
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Mark Dankenbring retweeted
Is now a good time to tell you that Shedeur Sanders had a higher yards per pass attempt last season than Bo Nix?
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I don't like to be criticial but it's a genuine shame how poor of an NFL broadcasting duo Al Michaels & Kirk Herbstreit are at this point. Michaels can't see the field and lacks any meaningful insight or enthusiasm. Herbstreit is out of his element calling his secondary sport and doesn't have the NFL knowledge you want from an analyst. It's insane to me these two get 17 prime time games a season. It's a slap in the face to NFL fans.
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New Rest of Season Top 150 show is live! Covered this week's biggest movers: - Ashton Jeanty - Jaylen Waddle - Rhamondre Stevenson - Germie Bernard - Isaiah Likely & Malik Nabers - Woody Marks and RB timeshares for Steelers, Bengals, Seahawks, & Vikings with @adamlevitan , @notJDaigle , @JackMiller02 youtube.com/watch?v=u9fVW4gg…
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