To all my followers: So I just spent a brief time away in the mountains reflecting on the last 15-20 years with my best friend (she also happens to be my wife) and here's what I concluded at least for now when it comes to posting here going forward. I will try and avoid posting things that I do not think will be helpful in the market. The reality in my view is that most of twitter is full of noise, mostly by people who have views/opinions that don't help anyone make actual $ in the market. I am humbled by many of the compliments I've received here and other places (most recently our annual gala) that what I've been teaching is helping both on the MPA platform and here as well. That is my goal. I've done well and want to try and give knowledge to those in search of it. I'm the product of a few great traders influence and trying to do the same for those interested. I will not respond any longer to trolls, skeptics or critics. If you don't like me or what I'm saying do us both a favor and unfollow me. See Teddy above...'it isn't the critic who counts.' I'm not listening or going to respond as life is just too short and honestly I feel sorry for anyone who feels the need to project that kinda stuff on any social media platform. I also want to talk more about generosity and the need for it as people learn to grow in their wealth. As what does a man gain to earn the world and in the end 'forfeit his soul.' I have much more to say on this in time and going forward but a recent talk I did on this was very WELL received and only demonstrated what I believe to be a deficit at least in peoples thinking in this area. I'm going to be posting more examples of real trades and post analysis of both winners & losers. I have more losses so I'll probably be posting more of those but simply so people can see how I've handled things and how I try and continue to improve on process and risk management as ideas are wildly overrated. Lastly (sorry got a little long) I put the 'man in the arena' up there because my wife gave it to me many years ago when I got started on this journey. I've been thinking about what Teddy called 'a worthy cause' and I think investing in others (both generally and personally) is a good example of one going forward. I could be wrong and fail to do a good job but if so I'll attempt to do so 'while daring greatly.' Blessings. MR2

I've been watching this cycle work that MPA and @markminervini puts out for years and I find it fascinating how these things often rhyme or seem like they fit like a glove. For me the difference is in watching vs leaning/trading on something. I have never traded or anticipated a cycle turn in anything. I watch and use this stuff to keep my mind open and flexible. Right now for instance the market looks pretty lousy but historically it looks like it could turn on a dime here. I'll wait for evidence in the market (setups, breakouts, an accumulation/FTD day) vs sticking my neck out and leaning against some historical precedent. I posted a few precedents last week on how the market acts ($QQQ) xitter.cf/MarkRitchie_II/status/… when we start to have a failed breakout. Given the breadth and both examples looks like at least a test of the 200-day could be in order, but I'm not going to dig in with that or any opinion. We could bottom on today's open, or next month, or next year, I haven't a clue. I'd love to see a bit of a risk puke where all the indexes go red and we see a spike in VIX or put/call but that could be wishful thinking too. Stay tuned and flexible.

I don't see much 'good news' out there, seems like a pretty nice wall o worry: -high oil -rising rates -wars -election uncertainty -AI is a bubble, if not it'll take our jobs and after that kill us all -Bears lost to the Packers & Vikings Anyone ready to get long if any good news happens? Asking for a friend...

Longer/personal post warning, if that isn't your cup of tea, pour some coffee and ignore this. There's an old verse in Isaiah that says, "whether you turn right or left, your ears will hear a voice behind you, saying, 'this is the way, walk in it'". I don't know that I've ever heard that audibly but there's been times where it seemed so abundantly obvious which way to go, and what to do, that it may as well have been audible. Recently I've been reflecting on my decisions to try and help others, primarily via X (or anywhere for the sake of this diatribe) as I've wrestled with whether to continue bothering, or not. The wrestle has more been over the issue of how best to help the few, vs the many, and trying to do for others what a few did for me. I am VERY grateful for a majority of the folks who have liked or commented on things here as well as those who haven't who I've met personally (particularly recently at the gather in SC). In my pinned post from a few years ago I commented on how I would no longer post on political/social issues. I share some occasional things on faith but I can't help that as that part of my life is never compartmentalized as it's THE primary influence and foundational to my worldview. Hopefully staying away from silly stuff that is of little consequence has brought more value to the few. Going forward my goal and hope is to be a positive formational influence on anyone who decides to read/follow. We are all being formed by something (usually what we read and the voices/ideas we entertain). Here the goal will be to focus on risk v reward, trade expression, and having a repeatable process. I can give ideas but never conviction, so focus on the philosophy and thought process that leads to conviction and hopefully that is a good influence on how you think about markets/trading/investing as a discipline overall. I've wrestled for years with what degree to even discuss personal success. I've realized no matter what I do I'm in an untenable position. If I talk about historical performance or dollars made I'm an arrogant jerk. If I never mention any of it I'm a fraud who is only on here to sell something. Neither are true but you can't stop people from believing what they want to or thinking in extremes/polemics. I don't have to apologize for the success I've had as it is only a negative if I allow that to put undue pressure, or illegal expectations upon myself. A mistake I have made in the past for sure, but hopefully not going forward. I'm human and have made SO many mistakes both in and outside of markets. I'll try and point out more trades that didn't work than have (that is my historical stats, more losers than winners) but won't apologize for the wins either. For fun I recently put our historical performance (+32% CAGR over 15+ years) into perplexity and asked what the odds were, and it stated 'very unlikely' to achieve. Based on the stats alone it stated somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 in 5000, when adjusted for our actual volatility and a PtG ratio >2.5 the odds went MUCH lower. The goal again is positive formation and sharing the thinking/philosophy we use that got us to where we are and are using to sustain and propel us going forward. I've had a few traders who've played an invaluable part of my own formation both in the past and on going. To any critics I'm gonna come in the opposite spirit and be kind. I generally won't respond but if you don't like me or anything I share simply ignore me, or unfollow. I've got nothing but love for you all, critics included.

Starting to get more sporty out there... -Volume picking up a bit -closing below 50-day -$SPY closing below 50-day on outside day -VIX (price of insurance) +25% on the day All of this could be a recipe for an oversold bounce at any minute but when markets go liquidation mode it's always a 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️ scenario as to when/where that takes place. Watching to see if we get a crescendo at all into the close of the week. Been awhile since we've seen a bad Friday into ugly Monday open...

A little more color (sorry I'm bored) but meant to mention to show the weekly and point out a few reasons I was willing to sit. 1. first and foremost the stock never hit my initial stop. 2. This entire base has had no heavy selling and as @dryan310 taught me many years ago stocks that are still under accumulation usually don't have more than 2 weekly lower lows. All selling was below average on down weeks. 3. Stock on the weekly never even had one of the behavioral analytics flash Red (TPR, Buy Risk, Pressure). I don't use indicators but been studying these and they are pretty good at least 'guiding lights' on the dashboard to monitor as good lagging indicators (once in the trade).

$LLY I've posted on this a number of times but given that I'm not doing much on the long side today figured I'd give an update. This is a position I've stuck with and is trying to breakout here. I would like to have added more but given the sloppiness and overall conditions playing I'm just holding/watching. I have a line and now waiting/hoping for a handle. This has been a tape where you either have to be really tight/quick/fast or play a bit smaller/wider. Anything else, at least for me has left me getting middled a bit and this is a good example as I've tried to add a few times to get a few small chops.

$QQQ precedent analysis when support starts to go...to me the 2018 looks the closest to my eye as things looked great and then support didn't hold and we slid right to the 200-day then into a cyclical bear. I remember that one well as I got caught a little flat footed and didn't raise cash fast enough. The more interesting thing is whether we could have a 'stealth' correction in the Nasdaq and not the rest of the market. This morning we're gapping below the 50-day while the Dow & Russell 2K are higher. Rotation again and if it gets violently unwound $QQQ could play some serious catchup to the downside. I have NO CLUE what's going to happen anyone telling you they do you should run from. I do know that these type of environments can be very dangerous and no should override their risk management or listen to stories about how great xyz company is. All stocks are bad if they aren't doing what they are supposed to be doing.

$QQQ is starting to look like a possible failed breakout here. We have the conditions for a bit of a slide/air pocket for sure, only thing is lots of people calling for it based on breadth. This is where you get ready to pull the rip cord on any loose longs or anything that doesn't hold up and don't argue with stops. Still a few things out there that look ok but that can/does change very quickly. Interested to see how we close the week as looks like we're headed for distribution today, do we accelerate tomorrow and into the weekend is what I'm watching to see?

I meant to post this sooner but I want to warn people that I do NOT reach out to anyone personally about money management, trade ideas, or asking for money or anything like that. There are also tons of people trying to use my or others profile pics to scam people. I heard a tragic story over the weekend about someone being scammed out of hundreds of thousands of dollars thinking they were following a supposed expert. I do not, nor have I ever reached out to ask anyone for money, or to subscribe to a private group, or anything like that and I do not manage public money anymore. Anyone asking or telling you that is a scam.

This is a really great post and also why if you want to 'understand' something you don't (new tech, idea) ask one of your kids, or someone young. That exercise in an of itself is an act of humility. The #1 thing Druckenmiller has stated repeatedly that rarely gets quoted as his greatest strength is his 'flexibility'. The irony is almost NO ONE ever presses him on what he means by that which is where the real art is. Ideas, conviction, sizing and expression which are all dynamic (flexible) vs static. Case in point...The number of old people who tried to tell me why BTC was stupid or wouldn't work (all of whom were wealthy might I add) was pretty long. Ironically I had thought the same when I first heard of it but after talking to a tech nerd who explained it more and then hearing about it from others smarter than me I started doing some digging/thinking. I told my Dad I liked the risk v reward in 2015 and he said 'I don't really get it but if you like it buy me some', which was an example of someone who was willing at least to be flexible and see in 'risk v reward' terms rather than I'm right and know more than you.

I want to thank everyone who came out over the weekend especially those I had to opportunity to meet & chat with. The event is always overwhelming in the best way. Thanks to everyone for the compliments and kind words. I thought this year was perhaps the best so far getting deeper into what is really forming/driving our decisions and how trading is ultimately a reflection of who we are on a much deeper level. One of my personal highlights was listening to Brian Clement talk and to hear him ask repeatedly & rhetorically ‘who are you, and why are you here?’ Profound talk, Reggie Sanders was just as good and @markminervini as inspiring as ever.

I think we may have slightly underestimated the interest…yesterday was really great, today should be fun too!

Longtime bears fan and of chicago sports and Da Coach was larger than life. One of my favorite stories was when he was hired in 82' he created a new culture immediately by telling the team 'the good news is we are going to the superbowl in a few years, the bad news is half of you won't be here.'

Meeting and getting to talk markets with Larry was a career highlight! Funny, humble and incredibly wise!

As we say in our shop 'even a bad plan is better than no plan, and a simple plan you follow is far superior to a complex you one that you can't.'

I'm traveling for the MPA Gala next day/two but right now I'd say this area is still key to watch (AI, semi, memory). Some of these stocks have tried to move but albeit a bit lumpy. I've added some exposure but partying with one foot right near the exit if we don't get follow through. Still selective for sure and IF (big IF as all the news is bad) we get any good news (backup in rates, oil, peace somewhere 🙏) do these names sell off (more rotational chop) vs hold and move higher.

Great interview from two MW.

Looking forward to connecting with new & old friends from MPA this weekend. It's going to be a great event as always!

I literally pulled these headlines from my youtube suggested videos...have a great weekend!