Maths. Puzzles. Lecturer at @CASAUCL. I've also written a book w/ @Fryrsquared on the merry Maths of Christmas! https://xitter.cf/t.co/A3Y2uf96yi
London
Joined October 2011
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Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
A plot of Labour & Conservative polling errors in all final GB general election voting intention polls, 1945-2024. 2024 polls in red. Data from PollBase (@markpack). #GE24 #politics #stats
Definitely agree with @Dannythefink that GE24 polling miss should be taken more seriously.
But in fairness to pollsters:
- Several averages had Lab at 37-38%, wide on their lead by ~6% not 10. Bad not catastrophic.
- They did pick up late dip in Lab’s vote; it was ignored
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
Today should be the day we hear if @QMUL plan to save Westfield nursery. @qmulnursery means so much to us so we hope the right decision is made!
We stand with the staff. We are family.
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
Whilst we wait for the decision as to whether
@QMUL will save or close @qmulnursery. I'm sharing testimonials from the Westfield nursery families. #savewestfieldnursery
"The environment created by the team has made our child feel safe and secure..."
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
Since WW2, there have been 9 changes of the gov party. Setting aside 2024, in 4 cases govt vote share increased at the following election and in 4 cases it decreased. In only 1 case did a new govt lose power (Feb 1974), and even then, they won the most votes. #GE24 #stats [2/n]
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
When the @qmulnursery community comes together, magical things happen... Behold, our website! All the updates on our campaign to #SaveWestfieldNursery in one place! Any questions? any frequently asked ones, even? We've got answers!
#HandsOffOurToddlers
handsoffwestfield.notion.sit…
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
We await the final decision as to whether @QMUL
will save or close @qmulnursery. Here I am sharing testimonials from the Westfield nursery families. #savewestfieldnursery
"Having a nursery in our place of work always gave us a sense of safety..."
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
POST-ELECTION UPDATE TO ANALYSIS:
2024 very much continued the pattern of the last 60 years: When Labour is ahead in the polls, their actual margin over the Conservatives turns out to be smaller than predicted (or negative). #GE24 #stats #GE2024 #GeneralElection2024 [1/n]
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
Just an hour to go until that big Exit Poll reveal. Here's how previous ones have compared to the final result, with the current methodology having a solid track record.
ALT Chart showing the result predicted for the largest part by the broadcaster exit polls (or equivalent) compared against the final result.
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
A summary of the 14 final projections listed on @inglesp's wonderful website. 382 (60%) unanimous predictions, 118 where 12 or 13 agree, 84 where most (9 to 11) agree, 48 with too little agreement to call.
ALT Map showing the agreement of the 14 final prediction models.
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
THREAD: Graph of poll margin (LAB-CON) vs final result, for gen elections back to 1964. Includes 8 elections with Labour ahead & 8 with Labour behind. Labour actually only received the most votes in 6 of these elections (though went on to form govt in 7). [1/n] #GE2024
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
Thread incoming this evening on #GE2024. Statistical discussion of historical elections (back to 1964) and current polling, ending with some vote share predictions. #stats #GeneralElections2024 #GE24
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
The clock is ticking. @QMUL soon decide if they will close @qmulnursery. The community have offered a way forward and it isn't too late to listen and to do the right thing.
Past, present and future Westfield children thank you @rushanaraali for your continued support.
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
I am concerned to hear from parents that Westfield Nursery at @QMUL is scheduled to close in August.
I have asked the University to postpone the closure until further discussions have been had with parents and stakeholders to try and find a solution that benefits parents, children, and the Queen Mary community.
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
I am backing @QMUL youngest students @qmulnursery. Listen to them - they have a voice and they are shouting - DON'T CLOSE OUR NURSERY! Do the right thing.
How you can help - ReTweet our video + sign our petition. chng.it/j5QdtLJVCr
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
Sign! Share! Let's make it "the most successful petition of its kind, anywhere"! #DontEvictOurToddlers #SaveWestfieldNursery #BabesBeforeSuits
change.org/p/save-westfield-…
Sign the Petition
Save Westfield Nursery! Queen Mary University - Don't evict our toddlers!
change.org
Thomas Oléron Evans retweeted
🚨PhD Studentship Klaxon!!🚨 - Bit like buses these @CASAUCL studentships at the moment. Another two in CASA, this time from the ESRC and both with industry partners. One with me, @gerardhughcasey and Esra Suel, another one with Jens Kandt - details here: ubel-dtp.ac.uk/co-fundedandc…