Matthew Dickinson (@MattDickinson44) profile picture

Matthew Dickinson

@MattDickinson44

Presidency Scholar, specializing in elections, White House organization, decisionmaking, American politics.

blogs.middlebury.edu/presidentialpower/
Joined January 2012
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I promised some comments on the methodology behind the recent UNH Green Mountain poll showing Amanda Janoo leading @PhilScott4VT 51-43 (including leaners).
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One caveat (so far!): the ChatGPT reweighting of Navigate's results using UNH's age distribution was meant to be illustrative, not exact.
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Because UNH doesn't publish its weighted likely-voter age distribution (or at least I couldn't find it) the calculation used its published age figures and assumed uniform age distributions where the polls' age brackets differed.
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Replying to @MattDickinson44 @PhilScott4VT @WCAX_Darren
The discrepancy is potentially significant, because younger voters overwhelmingly support Janoo, so including more of them in the turnout model is going to increase her support.
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According to @ElectProject, just under 33% of Vermont ballots have been returned as of today. That's running behind the 2022 midterm turnout.
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