
Passionate about nature, tech, and people. Backyard scientist 🔬 | Armchair genealogist 🧬 | Advocating to save lives and build a world that works. #VaxStatRep
Joined June 2014
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Follow me as I seek to explain & validate the argument that wins the vaccine debate.
My🧵s in search of the truth.
1) What happened in New Zealand?
How and why does a small island country show us beyond doubt how safe vaccines are?
xitter.cf/MauritzPreller/status/…
Replying to @MauritzPreller
Clear evidence that covid vaccines are safe can be found in New Zealand, a country of ~ 5.1m people where ~12,8m vaccines were administered to date.
As the graph below from NZ health shows, most of those were administered from March 2021 to March 2022.
tewhatuora.govt.nz/our-healt…
Asking @EthicalSkeptic to graph something is like asking RFK to be honest about vaccines.
cc. @henjin256
And this..
Weekly data, males age 1-29, England
#DiedSuddenly
Barry, you're correct that New Zealand's reported COVID-19 vaccination coverage is now lower than 95%.
But this isn't quite the flex you think it is.
As is the case with large data sets things can be quite messy.
And calling the 95% figure "absolute rubbish" suggests you haven't understood how New Zealand calculated its vaccination coverage, or how those calculations subsequently changed.
Let me share about the government's original reports, the population denominator revisions and the actual vaccination records released under the Official Information Act.
The results are rather interesting.
1. The 95% figure wasn't made up. It was officially reported.
On 1 March 2022, New Zealand's Office of the Auditor-General reported that 4,003,247 people aged 12 and older had received two COVID-19 vaccine doses.
That represented 95.1% of the eligible population, according to the official reporting methodology at the time.
Eligible being 12+ years and older
You can disagree with the methodology. But calling an officially published government statistic "absolute rubbish" doesn't make it disappear.
My original post was written in December 2023, using historical vaccination figures released at the time.
The tally that was shared publicly was 4,051,754 as my screenshot from December (soon after you stole and shared your data with known grifters) shows.
The screenshot also shows first-dose coverage, whereas my accompanying statement concerned two doses. The two-dose claim therefore requires its own supporting source, which the Auditor-General's report provides for March 2022.
The original percentage was genuine. It just needs to be understood in its historical context.
Interestingly, the government subsequently revised its methodology.
And this is where what you eventually discovered become particularly relevant.
9. And finally, your claim that mostly unvaccinated nations had almost no COVID deaths.
Which nations would that be? Please do tell. That is basically a bold faced lie at worst and and a complete distortion of the truth at best.
Bulgaria is an obvious example.
According to the OECD, only approximately 30% of Bulgaria's population had been vaccinated by the end of 2023.
Yet Bulgaria experienced some of the highest excess mortality in the European Union during the pandemic.
The OECD and European Observatory's 2023 Country Health Profile reported more than 60,000 excess deaths between 2020 and 2022, approximately 20.2% above its historical baseline.
Eurostat reported 37.3% excess mortality in Bulgaria during 2021.
Low vaccination coverage certainly did not mean almost no excess mortality.
That observation alone does not establish how much of Bulgaria's mortality was caused or prevented by vaccination. Differences in age, chronic disease, healthcare capacity, infection timing and other circumstances must be considered.
But your sweeping claim about largely unvaccinated countries experiencing almost no COVID deaths does not hold up.
You may want to read this analysis.
For those who still insist the Covid vaccines “caused deaths” or “didn’t work”, here’s a pattern you need to explain.
Australia & New Zealand vs Bulgaria.
If vaccination was the main driver of excess deaths, why did low-vaccination Bulgaria get absolutely hammered while highly vaccinated Australia and New Zealand did vastly better?
And if the vaccines caused the excess mortality, why did Australia and New Zealand, both of which rolled out first boosters at nearly the same time, experience their major mortality waves at different times? More closely tracking their respective reopenings and subsequwnt Covid waves?
What alternative explanation fits what we observe across these three countries better?
Not an anecdote.
Not “Fauci did it.”
Not “look at ivermectin.”
Not a screenshot from Telegram.
Explain the pattern.
Share this with anyone who still claims the vaccines caused the excess deaths or simply “didn’t work.” Ask them to make their hypothesis fit the data.
I’ll keep refining this argument. Make it more comprehensive, more testable, and harder to wave away.
Now let’s see whether an alternative theory can survive contact with the whole dataset.
10. So where does this leave your original response?
You are correct about some things.
New Zealand's current reported vaccination percentage is lower than 95%.
There are substantial numbers of unvaccinated New Zealanders, particularly among younger age groups.
But here's what you missed.
First: The historical 95% statistic you dismissed as "absolute rubbish" was genuinely published by the New Zealand government.
Second: The government subsequently documented how a denominator revision reduced reported coverage by 5.23 percentage points, without changing the number vaccinated in that comparison.
Third: Health NZ specifically identified younger adults, particularly men, as underrepresented in its earlier population estimates.
Fourth: The AIR transition introduced another methodological break and is a snapshot not a historical record.
Fifth: Both the historical and subsequent data show very high vaccination coverage among older New Zealanders, the population most vulnerable to COVID-19 mortality.
And this is ultimately the problem with simply pointing to a newer percentage and declaring an older government statistic nonsense.
A vaccination percentage is not an isolated fact.
It depends on the number vaccinated, the population denominator, the age groups, the reporting date and the methodology used.
Change any of those, and the percentage can change.
You were right that the newer percentage is lower.
You were wrong to suggest the historical 95% figure was fabricated.
And the government's own documentation explains why treating those figures as directly interchangeable would be a serious statistical mistake.
For someone making sweeping claims about what New Zealand's vaccination data supposedly proves, those distinctions are rather important.
What's not normal? Did people of all ages not die of these things before?
1. 28 years old: Blood clots
2. 37 Undisclosed Natural causes
3. 19 Not disclosed
4. 35 Lymphoma
5. 18 Heart transplant (cardiac issue)
6. 54 Brain cancer (glioblastoma)
7. 31 Aortic dissection
8. 56 Bowel cancer
9. 45 Cardiac arrest
10. 24 years. Undisclosed.
At least 10 prominent athletes DIED UNEXPECTEDLY or were struck by anomalous medical emergencies in JUST the last 21 days.
Large numbers of sports stars continue to drop like flies since the mRNA gene therapies were rolled out.
In October 2026 ALONE:
• Jalen Hurts, 28 (NFL, Philadelphia Eagles) — Blood clots in BOTH lungs
• Allen Bailey, 37 (Former NFL, Chiefs/Falcons) — Found DEAD at home
• Ben Kindel, 19 (NHL, Pittsburgh Penguins) — Medical emergency on team flight
• Kasey Redfern, 35 (Former NFL, Lions/Falcons) — DEAD from CNS lymphoma
• DJ Jones, 18 (NCAA Football, Missouri Tigers) — HEART TRANSPLANT
• Heidi Burge Horton, 54 (Former WNBA, LA Sparks/Washington Mystics) — DEAD from brain cancer
• Hyron Andrews, 31 (Professional Rugby, Johannesburg Lions) — DEAD from aortic dissection
• Cheryl Waaka, 56 (Former Rugby, New Zealand Black Ferns) — DEAD from bowel cancer
• Eirik Skadsdammen, 45 (Former Pro Hockey, Storhamar/Norway) — DEAD from cardiac arrest
• Jack Davies, 24 (Welsh Rugby, RGC/Caernarfon) — DEAD, cause undisclosed
This is NOT normal.
Mau retweeted
I've got really bad feelings about this.
Blaming us healthcare workers for poisoning our patients during the pandemic is fucking infuriating!
Barry Young is a case study in a very specific kind of statistical disinformation: taking real data and inverting what it actually shows.
The pattern:
1. Real dataset (NZ vaccination records)
2. No clinical or statistical expertise to interpret it
3. A predetermined conclusion ("vaccines cause excess deaths")
4. Analysis reverse-engineered to fit that conclusion
What the actual data showed is that New Zealand had negative excess mortality during the 2021 vaccine rollout. Meaning fewer deaths than expected. The excess deaths that did occur in 2022 tracked COVID-19 waves, not vaccination timing.
Young claims the data proves the opposite. He is convincing his audience of a "60% higher chance of dying" and "huge clusters of deaths" .
This is the hardest kind of disinformation to counter because it uses real numbers. It doesn't fabricate the dataset. It just performs an analysis designed to reach a conclusion, then presents the output as if the data "showed" it.
In an attempt to score political points Mr. Seymour casually admits...When the vaccine got here, he (Hipkins) overlooked advice that it could be fatal to teenaged boys...
Woah...wait..what? Did our deputy PM just acknowledge the work of our brave freedom fighter @KiwiAly ? He just admitted the covid vaccine was potentially dangerous??????
Meaning it opens up the entire covid vaccine program to debate (It did NOT just negatively impact teenage boys).
This chart below cannot be rationally or logically explained without acknowledging the wider potential risks of this vaccine.
These are our people.
Using mathematics statistics and logic this shows excess mortality that cannot be rationally explained. Null hypothesis is rejected by an order of magnitude that is breathtaking to comprehend.
• SMR = 1.65 (95% CI ~1.64–1.67)
• ~14,755 excess deaths (≈40% above expectation)
• Incidence rate ratio (IRR) ≈ 1.65
• p < 1e-16, i.e. statistically certain
• Attributable fraction = 41%
If the effect were random, SMR should fluctuate around 1. Instead, it rises monotonically with age. That’s a dose–response relationship, which strengthens causal interpretation. This demonstrates that most of the absolute excess burden sits in the elderly, even though the SMR rises across all ages. Among people aged 65+, there were 31,922 observed deaths compared to 18,442 expected, yielding an SMR of 1.73 and ~13,480 excess deaths. This accounts for ~91% of all excess mortality in the cohort.
I am on trial. The data is not.
I'm going to post a new preprint om Covid-19 and the mRNA vaccines proposing that antivaccine hesitant thought reduces human capacity to understand anything.
The idea of mRNAs in the vaccine persist in time and the evidence is hesitants eventually lose all common sense.
Anthony Kyriakopoulos and I just posted this new Preprint on COVID-19 and the SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines on the Preprints server, proposing that the spike protein accelerates the aging process.
"The mRNAs in the vaccine and the transcribed spike protein persist in time, promoting a chronic activation of NF-κB and other pathogenic pathways."
preprints.org/manuscript/202…
Sometimes I genuinely struggle to come to terms with how we operate as humanity.
Some ideas are simply bad ideas. Not every question represents a legitimate scientific controversy, and not every disagreement means the evidence is evenly balanced.
Take measles.
The evidence that measles can cause serious harm, and that vaccination provides highly effective protection, is about as clear as medical evidence gets.
Yet somehow, decades of research have been turned into what many people perceive as an open debate. (Yesterday I was confronted with "independent" thinking.)
And I suspect something rather disturbing happens along the way.
For many, the mere existence of a debate becomes evidence that there must be something to debate. Someone raises a question, someone else challenges the answer, and suddenly established scientific findings are treated as just another opinion.
The appearance of controversy becomes more persuasive than the weight of evidence.
I'm all for asking questions. Science depends on it. But # asking a question is not the same as producing evidence, and manufacturing doubt is not the same as discovering a problem.#
We should never stop questioning what we know. But we also need to recognise when those questions have been asked, investigated and answered, repeatedly.
At some point, we need to stop treating every unsupported claim as though it deserves equal standing with decades of rigorous scientific research.
Demand evidence. Challenge misinformation. Stop mistaking confidence for competence and controversy for credibility.
And above all, when children's health is at stake, we have a responsibility to act on what the evidence actually shows.
Protect your children. Vaccinate them.
Speak up when misinformation puts others at risk.
Because the consequences of getting this wrong aren't theoretical. They're measured in preventable suffering, permanent disabilities and lives lost.
I spent the last day investigating the evidence behind this CDC statement about measles:
“Nearly 1–3 of every 1,000 children who become infected with measles will die.”
Rather than simply assume the CDC was correct, I examined the historical records, modern outbreak data, systematic reviews and clinical studies.
Here is what the evidence establishes, what remains uncertain, and what we can reasonably conclude. 🧵
"It’s the truth. Ladies and gentlemen, there was no pandemic. There was no virus.
They use these PCR tests to identify Covid, which is coronavirus which has been around for thousands of years and we’ve all had it. It’s the common cold ladies and gentlemen."
Sometimes I genuinely struggle to come to terms with how we operate as humanity.
Some ideas are simply bad ideas. Not every question represents a legitimate scientific controversy, and not every disagreement means the evidence is evenly balanced.
Take measles.
The evidence that measles can cause serious harm, and that vaccination provides highly effective protection, is about as clear as medical evidence gets.
Yet somehow, decades of research have been turned into what many people perceive as an open debate. (Yesterday I was confronted with "independent" thinking.)
And I suspect something rather disturbing happens along the way.
For many, the mere existence of a debate becomes evidence that there must be something to debate. Someone raises a question, someone else challenges the answer, and suddenly established scientific findings are treated as just another opinion.
The appearance of controversy becomes more persuasive than the weight of evidence.
I'm all for asking questions. Science depends on it. But # asking a question is not the same as producing evidence, and manufacturing doubt is not the same as discovering a problem.#
We should never stop questioning what we know. But we also need to recognise when those questions have been asked, investigated and answered, repeatedly.
At some point, we need to stop treating every unsupported claim as though it deserves equal standing with decades of rigorous scientific research.
Demand evidence. Challenge misinformation. Stop mistaking confidence for competence and controversy for credibility.
And above all, when children's health is at stake, we have a responsibility to act on what the evidence actually shows.
Protect your children. Vaccinate them.
Speak up when misinformation puts others at risk.
Because the consequences of getting this wrong aren't theoretical. They're measured in preventable suffering, permanent disabilities and lives lost.
..
It’s the truth. Ladies and gentlemen, there was no pandemic. There was no virus.
They use these PCR tests to identify Covid, which is coronavirus which has been around for thousands of years and we’ve all had it. It’s the common cold ladies and gentlemen.
But the PCR test can be magnified to be able to see every single virus you’ve ever had in your whole life so if it was turned to 50 or more amplification, they would see the coronavirus and then they would say well you have coronavirus because they’re detecting it because we’ve all had it! Duh
I’m a Truck Driver and I know this how the hell do I know all this shit?
Are you kidding me?
They’re blowing smoke up all of our asses, my fellow American people
And then they’re telling us it’s raining when they’re pissing down our back
They murdered over 50 million people with that Covid shot
COVID= certificate of vaccination ID
The pretext to the Covid shot was the PCR test, which was a fraud
The guy who invented the damn test got on social media and said that it was a fraud didn’t you see it?
Ladies, gentlemen, our government tried to kill all of us
Including our military police, doctors and nurses and our children and us
But some states have helmet laws to protect our safety
And they’re so worried about our safety that they have to pull us over just because we scratched our ass and swerved a little bit, because we might be impaired if our eyes are watery from working all day.
Pfffft whatever. 🇺🇸




















