Pinned Tweet
Newmont mines gold for $1,302 per ounce.
Gold sells for $4,430 per ounce.
That's $3,128 profit. Per ounce.
They produce 4 million ounces a year.
The stock is down 26% in March.
$NEM
Lundin Gold had the cleanest Q3 in the group.
Free cash flow: $331 million, up 73% from $191 million.
Adjusted EPS: $1.23, vs $0.86 a year ago.
Operating cash flow: a record $377 million.
Production: a record 153,736 ounces.
It returned $264 million to shareholders in the quarter and still ended with $574 million in cash.
New dividend declared: $1.14 per share, made up of $0.30 fixed and $0.84 variable, payable December 23. Nine-month free cash flow: $775 million, or $3.21 a share.
One mine, one commodity, and the payout rises with free cash flow by policy.
$LUGDF
Pan American Silver is two businesses in one report, and they went opposite ways.
Silver side: Q3 AISC came in better than forecast, and the company expects full-year silver AISC toward the low end of its range. Realized silver was $63.74 vs $39.08 a year ago.
Gold side: 2026 production guidance cut to 660,000-680,000 oz from 700,000-750,000. Gold AISC guidance raised to $2,000-$2,150 from $1,700-$1,850. Q3 gold AISC was $2,281.
Silver production is now guided to the low end of 25-27 million ounces, after unplanned downtime at Huaron and a higher gold-to-silver ratio at Cerro Moro.
The cash flow didn’t wobble: $377 million in attributable free cash flow, $300 million returned to shareholders, $0.185 dividend declared. The call is at 10:00 AM ET.
$PAAS
Coeur Mining reported after the close. Revenue is up 77%. The stock fell 4-6% after hours.
Q3: revenue $983.6 million (down from $1.09 billion in Q2). Adjusted EPS $0.10, which includes a $0.03 non-cash charge on Rainy River’s stockpile accounting.
Analyst estimates ranged from $0.16 to $0.30, so it missed on every source I checked.
The cash story is firmer: free cash flow $240 million (up 27% from a year ago, down from $388 million in Q2). Adjusted EBITDA $448 million.
Cash $1.2 billion. $111 million in buybacks.
The number to compare: Coeur now targets 2026 adjusted EBITDA above $2 billion and free cash flow above $1.3 billion at current prices.
When it announced the New Gold deal, the expectation was about $3 billion and $2 billion.
The call is at 11:00 AM ET.
$CDE
Agnico Eagle gained 9.7% Wednesday. The margin math explains about half of it.
Q3 margin per ounce: $4,264 realized minus $1,648 AISC = $2,616.
A 3% gold move adds about $128 an ounce. That’s about 5% on the margin.
The stock moved roughly twice that.
The other half is positioning. A week ago, Agnico closed at $165.38, 35% below its 52-week high.
Wednesday it closed at $183.45, 10.9% higher than Friday.
When a stock moves twice what its margin math says, the market is repricing sentiment, not just earnings.
$AEM
Wednesday’s miner rally, closing prices:
GDX: $84.59 (+9.0%)
Agnico Eagle: $183.45 (+9.7%)
Newmont: $118.15 (+9.9%)
Barrick: $40.13 (+8.3%)
Wheaton: roughly +12%
Gold rose about 3.3% to near $4,065, its biggest one-day gain since August 19. The miners moved about 2.7 times the metal.
This morning: gold near $4,131, its highest since October 22. Agnico is up another 2.9% pre-market.
The context: GDX is still about 28% below its 52-week high of $117.18.
$GDX $AEM $NEM $B $WPM
NEW ISSUE RELEASED:
miningstockstoday.substack.c…
Democrats took Congress. Gold miners took off.
Gold +3.3%. $GDX +9%. Oil -8%.
🚨But one green day doesn’t fix a broken trend.
In today’s Mining Stocks Today:
🔸What the blue wave changes for inflation and the Fed (and what it doesn’t)
🔸The permitting bill vote on Nov 9 that touches one copper miner
🔸The Dec 31 deadline hanging over a $2.9B mining loan
🔸My top 5 junior mining stocks to watch
$DC $SNWGF $CNL $PPTA $HBM $PPTA
THE SCORECARD SINCE MY LAST ISSUE (October 23 close to today)
What I said to watch:
Equinox Gold ($EQX): $10.11 to $11.28, up 11.6%
Lundin Gold ($LUG): C$84.52 to C$91.28, up 8.0%
Artemis Gold ($ARTG): C$37.67 to C$39.05, up 3.7%
Kinross ($KGC): $22.34 to $21.42, down 4.1%
DPM Metals ($DPM): C$56.02 to C$52.23, down 6.8%
What I said to stay away from:
Cameco ($CCJ): $78.60 to $71.68, down 8.8%
Uranium Energy ($UEC): $7.35 to $7.19, down 2.2%
Perpetua ($PPTA): $16.44 to $16.35, down 0.5%
Two more reports after the bell today, then the week gets heavy.
Pan American Silver: call Thursday at 10:00 AM ET. Analysts expect higher earnings and revenue, but estimates have been cut. The company has already said Q3 gold production will land 3,000 to 6,000 ounces below the low end of its quarterly range.
Q2: adjusted EPS $0.73 and a record $300 million returned to shareholders. The stock was $37.98 Friday, 46% below its 52-week high.
Lundin Gold: Q3 production is already out, a record 153,736 ounces at Fruta del Norte.
Then Friday: the October jobs report. Monday, Nov 9: Barrick, 6:00 AM ET.
$PAAS $LUGDF $B
Coeur Mining reports after the close today. Analysts have cut EPS estimates about 38% in 60 days.
EPS consensus: $0.10 to $0.16, depending on the source. A year ago: $0.23.
Revenue consensus: roughly $1.0 to $1.2 billion, vs $555 million a year ago. The New Gold acquisition roughly doubles the top line.
Revenue up 80-90%, EPS down 30-57%. That’s the cost and margin story the call has to answer.
Q2 recap: revenue $1.09 billion, mix 64% gold, 30% silver, 6% copper. CIBC cut its target to $30 from $35.
The stock was $13.10 Friday, roughly half its 52-week high of $27.77. The call is Thursday at 11:00 AM ET.
$CDE
Where Hecla’s record cash flow came from:
Greens Creek: a site-level record $147 million in free cash flow. More than 1.9 million ounces of silver and nearly 12,000 ounces of gold.
Keno Hill: nearly 1 million ounces of silver. Milled grade up more than 35%. A record 38,163 tons milled.
Lucky Friday: nearly 1.3 million ounces.
The cost line to watch: silver AISC was $14.34 an ounce in Q3, up from $6.07 in Q2 (excluding Keno Hill). Cash cost stayed negative at -$3.20 on by-product credits. Full-year AISC guidance improved to $11.50-$12.50.
Exploration: a new mineralized extension at Keno Hill’s Flame & Moth, 900 feet southwest of the known resource, and massive sulfide intercepts at Greens Creek (assays pending).
$HL
Hecla Mining reported after Tuesday’s close. The stock is up about 12% pre-market.
Q3 revenue: $394.8 million, up 18% from Q2 vs $340-350 million expected.
EPS: $0.22 vs $0.16 to $0.20 expected.
Operating cash flow: a record $203 million.
Free cash flow: a record $151 million, nearly triple a year ago.
Cash: $692 million. No debt, apart from finance leases.
It also raised the low end of its 2026 silver guidance:
15.3 to 16.1 million ounces, up from 15.1.
HL closed Tuesday at $13.21. Pre-market: $14.78.
$HL
Overnight, gold and silver ran like a different market.
10 PM ET: spot gold $3,931, silver $49.12.
4:30 AM ET: gold $4,045, silver $51.90.
That’s gold up 2.9% and silver up 5.7% in six and a half hours.
The trigger: Democrats won both the Senate and the House. The dollar slid about 0.5% and Treasury yields fell.
Stock futures swung too. Nasdaq-100 futures fell as much as 2.4% on the early results, then recovered after President Trump accepted the outcome.
Pre-market, the miners followed the metal:
Kinross +6.8%
Newmont and Barrick +5%+
Agnico Eagle +5%
$GDX $NEM $B $AEM $KGC
Freeport-McMoRan was the one major miner that reported and rose.
Adjusted EPS: $0.88 vs about $0.80 expected. Net income per share: $0.81, up from $0.46 a year ago.
Revenue: $7.5 billion vs $7.42 billion expected.
Operating cash flow: $2.0 billion.
Copper: 832 million pounds produced, 749 million sold.
Gold: 234,000 ounces produced, 105,000 sold. About 60,000 ounces of refined gold slid into Q4.
Management says Q4 will be the strongest quarter of the year by far, and that copper sales have risen three quarters in a row.
The caveat: Freeport trimmed its 2026 copper sales forecast about 2% and 2027 about 2.5%, citing lower US production.
Gold names reported rising costs. The copper name reported rising volumes.
$FCX
Kinross fell about 6% the day after it reported and another 6.8% Friday with the sector.
Here’s what was in the report:
Adjusted EPS: $0.50, versus $0.44 a year ago.
Free cash flow: $281.3 million, down 59% from $686.7 million.
Excluding working capital: $391.4 million, down 41%.
Capex: $439.6 million, up from $312.2 million.
AISC: $1,947 per gold-equivalent ounce.
Part of the cash hit was timing. Ounces unsold at quarter-end because of the September 30 bank holiday were sold in early October, and management expects part of the working-capital outflow to reverse.
The balance sheet didn’t move: $2.6 billion cash, $1.9 billion net cash, over $950 million returned this year, 28.5 million shares repurchased.
$20.13 Friday, about 48% below its 52-week high.
$KGC
How far each miner has fallen from its 52-week high (Friday’s close):
Newmont: -21%
GDX: -34%
Agnico Eagle: -35%
Pan American Silver: -46%
Kinross: -48%
Coeur: -53%
Hecla: -60%
The biggest names fell the least. The silver and mid-tier names fell the most.
Valuation after the washout (Morningstar, normalized P/E):
Kinross: 8.4x
Newmont: 11.4x
Agnico Eagle: 14.8x
Cheap isn’t the same as a floor. But it shows who’s priced for trouble and who’s still priced for quality.
$NEM $GDX $AEM $PAAS $KGC $CDE $HL
Agnico Eagle beat earnings Wednesday night. The stock fell about 10% over the next two sessions.
Adjusted EPS: $2.62, a beat. Free cash flow: $852 million. $478 million returned to shareholders.
Here’s what the market sold: margin per ounce.
Q2: $4,483 realized minus $1,459 AISC = $3,024 an ounce.
Q3: $4,264 realized minus $1,648 AISC = $2,616 an ounce.
That’s $408 less per ounce in a single quarter.
Q3 AISC was up 24% year over year and above the top of the full-year range ($1,400-$1,550). Production: 814,012 ounces, down 6%. Management now says production lands near the low end of 3.3-3.5 million ounces and costs near the high end.
$165.38 Friday, 35% below its 52-week high.
$AEM
Silver reports in about ten days. Two setups.
Pan American Silver: Nov 4, after the close. It has already disclosed that Q3 gold production will land 3,000 to 6,000 ounces below the low end of its quarterly range, on shortfalls at El Peñon and Jacobina.
The silver side is the strong one: H1 silver costs came in below forecast and the 2026 outlook was reaffirmed. Q2 adjusted EPS was $0.73, up from $0.43 a year ago.
Hecla: expected Nov 5 after the close (date not yet confirmed by the company).
Consensus: about $0.17 a share on $335 million in revenue, flat with Q2’s $334 million. Q2 delivered $199 million in EBITDA and $136 million in free cash flow, with no long-term debt.
Gold problems at one. A flat-revenue test at the other.
$PAAS $HL
Kinross raised its payout and cut its guidance in the same press release.
Return of capital target: from 40% to 50% of free cash flow. Year to date: about $800 million returned, $655 million of it buybacks.
Now the other side:
Q3 consensus EPS: $0.47. Q2 actual: $0.71. That’s a 34% drop.
Revenue expected: $1.97 billion vs $2.22 billion in Q2.
Its cost guidance assumes $4,350 gold. Gold slid toward $4,000 on Friday.
50% of a smaller free cash flow number isn’t automatically a bigger check.
The market is pricing that. Kinross trades around 8.6x trailing earnings, roughly half Agnico’s multiple. UBS kept a Buy on October 8 but cut its target from $30 to $28.
$KGC $AEM
Kinross has already told you what Q3 production will be.
About 425,000 gold-equivalent ounces. It pre-announced that on September 23, when it cut guidance.
New 2026 and 2027 production: about 1.84 to 1.86 million ounces a year, 2-3% below the low end of the old range.
The damage is concentrated:
La Coipa in Chile: unprecedented winter weather, lower recoveries on high-copper ore.
Round Mountain in Nevada: lower mining rates, grades and recoveries.
Meanwhile Paracatu and Tasiast, its two largest, lowest-cost mines, are on track for a combined 1.1 million ounces. That’s about 60% of the revised output.
So Wednesday isn’t a volume test. It’s a cost and cash-conversion test.
$KGC
Agnico Eagle’s Q2 realized gold price: $4,483.
Newmont’s Q3 realized price, reported Thursday: $4,317. That’s 2% below Newmont’s own Q2 ($4,414). Different companies, but it’s the closest read-through available.
Now Agnico’s earnings expectations:
Q2 adjusted EPS: $3.05.
Q3 consensus: about $2.50 (sources range $2.45 to $2.52).
A 2% price decline doesn’t explain a roughly 18% drop in expected EPS.
Whatever explains the rest, whether costs, taxes or mine timing, is what to listen for on Thursday’s 11:00 AM ET call.
$AEM $NEM