Moneo

India’s Food Inflation Bomb Is Ticking. The Worst May Still Be Ahead! A failed monsoon, depleted soil moisture, tightening crop supplies and a looming Super El Niño are setting the stage for a prolonged food inflation shock. The numbers are already screaming: • Food inflation could hit 10% in Q3 FY27.\ • September food inflation surged to 7.74%.\ • Sugar prices have jumped nearly 30% in a year.\ • Sugar consumption: 29+ million tonnes vs production below 27.5 million tonnes.\ • Wheat prices have climbed to a near two-year high.\ • Corn and soybean account for 60–70% of poultry production costs. But the real danger lies ahead. Rabi sowing is already severely lagging. Poor residual soil moisture, depleted reservoirs and inadequate irrigation could jeopardise wheat, pulses and oilseed production. Protein inflation is becoming another flashpoint. Pulses, poultry, milk and eggs are all facing mounting cost pressures. Imports are no longer a cheap escape route. Higher international prices, a weakening rupee and rising freight costs are making imported supplies increasingly expensive. India is heading into a dangerous agricultural squeeze: weaker domestic production, costlier imports and persistent food inflation. The real test will be the rabi harvest. If the weather turns hostile again, today's price pressures could look modest in hindsight. \#AgTwitter #AgWx #IndiaAgriculture #FoodInflation #ElNino