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Joined March 2022
$PENG 🧵 Penguin Solutions is up ~15% today after crushing earnings last night. EPS $1.00 vs ~$0.75 expected, a ~33% beat, and it even cleared the $0.84 whisper number. Record quarter + raised outlook. Here's the breakdown 👇
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Full year FY26: Revenue $1.73B, +26% EPS $2.87, +51% Cash $647M, up $207M QoQ Paid off its $100M credit line Stock had fallen ~17% since last earnings heading in. This print flipped the narrative.
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The risks: Operating cash flow was -$163M in Q4 (working capital to fund growth) Memory pricing tailwinds won't last forever Just issued $750M in convertible notes = potential dilution Beta ~2.9. This stock swings hard both ways. NFA, DYOR.
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$TSM 🧵 Taiwan Semi hit a new 52-week high this morning, around $480 premarket (+1.7%). Market cap ~$2.45T, and the stock is up ~14% in the past month alone. Earnings land Oct 15. Here's what you need to know 👇
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Valuation: P/E ~35. A premium, but far cheaper than AI names like $AMD (~140x). Analysts: Buy consensus, avg PT ~$550 (~15% upside), Street-high $700. Recent: Stifel initiated Buy at $515, Bernstein $554, Needham $530.
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Risks: Margins squeezed by overseas fab buildout (Arizona, possible new Texas plant) Taiwan geopolitical risk never goes away Running into earnings at all-time highs means expectations are high NFA, DYOR.
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$AKAM just announced an expanded $11.6B, 7-year deal with Anthropic for AI cloud infrastructure — one of the largest single commitments in Akamai's history. This isn't their first deal together either. Here's the full story 👇
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The structure: Akamai will supply CPU compute for Anthropic's workloads via its distributed cloud. Deal can expand by another $9B — total potential commitment ~$20B over 7 years. Akamai also issued Anthropic a warrant for up to ~5% of its shares, priced at $111.33.
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Why it matters: this signals frontier AI compute demand is spilling beyond the big three hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) into distributed cloud/CDN players like Akamai. Watch how shares react today vs. the May reaction. NFA, DYOR.
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$AMD just crossed $1 trillion market cap. 🚨 Stock at $609, up huge today, joining the trillion-dollar club alongside Nvidia and Apple. From near-bankruptcy under Lisa Su a decade ago to this. Here's what got it here 👇
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The AI story: Data center revenue +107% YoY last quarter, now 58% of total revenue. Helios (new AI server platform) is ramping, and management says demand for both CPUs and GPUs is outpacing supply. Next earnings: Nov 3.
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The catch: ~144x trailing earnings, ~50x forward. This is priced for a lot of continued AI growth — not cheap, not a value stock. Trillion-dollar club is now Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, AMD (+ a few others). Rare air. NFA, DYOR.
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$SNDK 🧵 SanDisk has beaten earnings estimates 4 quarters straight, by an average of ~381%. Stock is up ~570%+ over the past year on an AI-driven NAND flash shortage. Next earnings: Nov 5. Here's the full picture 👇
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The bigger picture: • Up ~570%+ over 12mo, but down ~20% month-to-date (profit-taking/rotation out of chip names) • Forward PEG: 0.11 — historically cheap, or a sign of deep skepticism this growth holds • Bernstein just raised PT to $3,000 from $1,700
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The real question: is this a multi-year NAND supply shortage (bulls' case) or a chip-cycle peak getting priced like it's permanent (bears' case)? Nov 5 earnings — and especially the NEXT guide — will say a lot. NFA, DYOR.
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