Maria Oien

Ahead of the upcoming talks in Abu Dhabi, Jared Kushner has proposed a broader European security framework – including permanent consultations, military transparency, mechanisms to prevent escalation, and respect for national sovereignty. These are important objectives. European participation in shaping Ukraine’s future security guarantees is also essential. Yet the fundamental challenge is not the absence of frameworks. It is the question of intentions. We already have the OSCE, built on the principles of the Helsinki Final Act and the Charter of Paris. Sovereignty, territorial integrity and the peaceful settlement of disputes have been at the heart of Europe’s security architecture for decades. Russia has repeatedly violated these principles. And so far, Moscow has offered little evidence that its intentions extend beyond prolonging negotiations while continuing its military campaign. The simplest test remains a ceasefire. As early as March 2025, the US and Ukraine agreed on a proposal for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. More than a year and a half later, Russia has still not accepted a comprehensive ceasefire, while more limited proposals to halt attacks on energy infrastructure have also failed to produce a durable agreement. These are the real litmus tests of progress. Not the number of negotiating formats, the sophistication of new institutions, or the ambition of diplomatic declarations. Diplomacy is necessary, and the Abu Dhabi talks deserve serious engagement. But the credibility of any future European security framework will ultimately depend on whether Russia is prepared to respect its commitments. Until then, the challenge is less about designing new rules than establishing whether Moscow has any intention of following them.