JT (@NathanJoooo) header
JT (@NathanJoooo) profile picture

"During rough patches, remember that opportunities are always within reach." 心慌難擇路 欲速則不達 逆貪順恐,90%吃屎期活著 be very lazy; 10%超爽期盡量多部位。逐漸接近吃屎期跟超爽期交會階段要認真。

Taiwan
Joined December 2011
Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)Photo by JT (@NathanJoooo)
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미연 'Lips Together (feat. 미연 (MIYEON))' M/V 촬영 비하인드 (Filming Behind-the-Scenes) ♡ #미연 #MIYEON #조미연 #MY #CHOMIYEON #ミヨン #曺薇娟 #赵美延 #LipsTogether
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Instead of directing hate towards me for having a different opinion than you, try and turn that into something constructive. Build a business, create something cool, or spend time with family/friends. Don't waste your life mocking others who disagree with you.
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我发现推上不少人,尤其是在美国硅谷、华尔街工作的华人,多少有点活在一个泡泡里。 过去几年,科技和金融行业赚了不少钱,portfolio 也涨得不错,大家天天讨论 AGI、生产力革命,觉得 AI 改变世界是不可阻挡的趋势 这些判断中长期可能都没错,但问题是,普通美国人真的也是这么想的吗? 对一个普通美国家庭来说,他可能根本没有多少美股资产,也不关心英伟达今天又涨了多少。他更关心的是油价、超市账单、房贷,以及自己明年还有没有工作。 你在Sand Hill Road的会议室里兴奋地讨论 AI 如何取代人类劳动,他听到的可能是:那我的工作怎么办?Mortgage 谁来付?Bills 谁来 pay? 举个例子,一个 Uber 司机今天辛辛苦苦跑了十几个小时,赚了两三百美元。晚上回家打开电视,看到 Elon Musk 兴奋地宣布 Robotaxi 即将大规模取代人类司机。 你觉得他会跟着欢呼 AI 革命,还是会担心自己过几年就没饭吃了?到了投票的时候,他更愿意支持 Elon 背书的候选人,还是一个承诺保护普通人就业的候选人? 我觉得这次民主党的大胜,值得科技圈和金融圈认真反思。很多人已经习惯了从资本市场的视角看世界,却忽略了大多数选民是靠劳动收入,而不是资产升值生活的. 科技进步和普通人的利益,从来不一定在每个阶段都是一致的。 对持有科技股的人来说,AI 是财富增长的机会;对一个随时可能失业的美国蓝领普通人来说,AI 首先可能是生存威胁。 这两个群体看到的,根本就不是同一个世界
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最近看到不少多头在安慰自己:就算民主党上台,也不可能放弃 AI,毕竟这是几十年一遇的技术革命。 这个逻辑我中长期是认同的。但我想提醒多头一句:等到市场重新相信民主党也会大力发展 AI 的时候,你得确保自己的仓位还在,不要下牌桌。 中短期市场如果想去杠杆,找个借口就够了。何况现在除了政治不确定性,还有一个更值得警惕的问题:AI 的需求端是否真的能兑现市场如此高的预期? 市场可以长期看好 AI,同时在短期内把 AI 多头杀得片甲不留。这两件事并不矛盾。所以现在最重要的不是争论 AI 革命会不会成功,而是控制好杠杆。 方向看对了,不代表过程就能扛过去。别倒在黎明前,更别被杠杆踢下牌桌。 过去十年,我在币圈里面见过很多长期看多 BTC,但是短期玩杠杆被洗掉的朋友,有感而发
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還是紀念一下,難得在台指期權市場劃出了一個高點2960。
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Like I said, he is manufacturing a crisis on purpose. It's literally the same playbook he has done probably a dozen times at this point, and this one aligns with the typical Q4 midterm year dump. At some point, the market will rebuke him and not rally when he TACOs, but I don't think we have necessarily reached that point yet. Just something that likely will happen later in his term (maybe late 2027 or even into 2028).
Trump on Iran: I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I'll have to. You'll know soon enough,
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目前阶段立刻进行股市泡沫出清是非常好的时点,能保存大量的社会财富,可能将5年以上的熊市跨度缩减为1-2年。我反而会因此看好后市,等股灾结束信号出现,我会狠狠抄底。
Replying to @wangwatchworld
错,这让美股得以以相对比较小的代价进行泡沫出清,中国并没有像美国那样把整个社会的财富拿去买显卡,把整个社会的财富投入买显卡然后泡沫才爆炸的结果是整个社会一起完蛋。
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10 月 13 日 全网还在幻想新故事继续抱团时 ($INTC 当时103),我就明确警告:AI 硬件(存储、半导体)的抱团已经瓦解,资金正在撤离 10 月初果断大幅砍仓,满手现金看着这波兵败如山倒 交易里最爽的不是躲过暴跌,而是当别人都在被动挨打、甚至被迫砍仓时,你手里握着充足的子弹,准备弯腰捡带血的筹码 泥沙俱下之后,真正的黄金坑正在砸出来。接下来的核心课题只有一个:哪天会出现确定性的右侧击球点?准备拉一个 【AI 抄底 & 美股核心小群】,深入研究这波暴跌后的错杀标的与建仓节奏。 不收费、不带单、不灌水。首期卡 50 人,满员即封群。 入群门槛:X 粉丝 ≥ 300(谢绝营销/广告号)有兴趣的朋友麻烦私信我, 并请附一句自我介绍. 优先欢迎:二级市场资管/机构投研、全职交易员、以及大厂 AI 一线研究员与工程师加入
前段时间反弹就是Meta来一个新故事,看大家能不能抱团。在 Anthropic IPO 之前再拉一波,目前感觉这个抱团瓦解了, 资金在抛弃AI硬件相关股票(存储, 半导体) 最近一些软件股涨得不错,比如 $MSFT 和 $PLTR
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The NASDAQ has already given back all of its post-midterm gains, down another 3% today. Similar thing happened in 2018. Lot of exuberance following the midterms in 2018 (SPX rallied 2% the next day), then 3 major events caused the market to sell-off into December. 1) A Hawkish Fed: In October 2018, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell remarked that interest rates were still a long way from neutral, signaling to investors that the Fed would continue tightening monetary policy into 2019 regardless of cooling economic data. This triggered severe liquidity fears and widespread panic selling. This is similar to today in that the market is pricing in 2 more rate hikes despite the sell-off we have seen in tech. 2) Escalating U.S.–China Trade War : Just before and after the midterms, a flood of major multinational companies (including Caterpillar, 3M, and Ford) warned that rising tariff costs were eating into their profit margins and disrupting global supply chains. This is similar to today as tariffs have had major inflationary effects and is one of the reasons why the Fed has to remain hawkish. 3) Tech Valuation Reversals: The technology sector, which had been the primary engine driving the multi-year bull market, abruptly reversed course in late 2018. We also had the FAANG slump in which major tech giants faced severe regulatory scrutiny over antitrust and data privacy concerns (such as Facebook's controversies). This is similar to today as the AI trade has taken quite the breather with AI fears mounting. History does not always repeat itself, but it does often rhyme.
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同意。很多人都是屁股决定脑袋,上 X 不是为了交流观点,而是为了寻找心理按摩,最好所有人都能认同自己的判断。一旦有人提出不同意见,哪怕只是客观分析,也可能直接被 block。 我一直觉得,真正优秀的 Trader 往往是非常尊重对手盘的。市场本来就是由无数持有不同观点的人组成的,如果只愿意听自己爱听的,最后很容易陷入信息茧房,不断强化自己的偏见。 尤其是交易,最忌讳的就是先有立场,再去寻找支持自己立场的证据。看多的人只看利好,看空的人只看利空,最后交易反倒变成了维护自己的面子。 比如我这段时间基本空仓,一直在等更好的入场机会,但我并不会因此就希望市场天天暴跌,更不会因为自己空仓,就自动站到所有多头的对立面。 恰恰相反,最近我也一直在研究半导体、存储等板块的抄底机会,关注哪些利空已经被市场充分定价,哪些公司可能被错杀,以及什么时候可能出现值得参与的反转行情 我很愿意听多头的逻辑,尤其是那些和我当前判断相反、但有充分数据和事实支撑的观点。如果对方的逻辑足够有说服力,我完全可以改变自己的判断。 交易不是辩论赛。在 X 上把对手辩得哑口无言,甚至把所有反对你的人都拉黑,也不会让你的账户多赚一分钱。 市场不在乎你之前说过什么,更不在乎你的面子。交易员真正需要捍卫的是自己的账户,而不是自己的观点。
Replying to @kovainvest
It's dangerous to make a bear call on X, people hate bears especially Chinese community 😂
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JT retweeted
纳瓦尔: “世界从不奖励辛苦,只奖励判断力和复利。”
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Has the Pokémon TCG hobby lost its soul?
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Replying to @ArtofSpecuycky
we need a capitulation candle stick
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Tiffany Young 티파니 영 'Lips Together (feat. 미연 (MIYEON))' Official MV Tiffany Young 티파니 영 X MIYEON 미연 youtu.be/t1S8uM8e8Ro
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In bull markets, investors are blind to the risks. In bear markets, investors are blind to the opportunities.
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$MRVL Marvell 正式宣布收购 $LITE Lumentum,交易隐含企业价值高达 1,150 亿美元,堪称今年 AI 基础设施领域最重磅的并购之一 交易细节: 100% 换股,每 1 股 LITE 换取 4.5 股 MRVL 按 10 月 28 日股价计算,每股收购对价约 1,132 美元,溢价 23.9% 合并后 MRVL 原股东持股 67%,LITE 股东持股 33% 预计 2028 年上半年完成交割 预计每年产生超过 10 亿美元成本协同效益 这笔并购的战略意图很明显, Marvell 本身就是定制 ASIC、光 DSP 的重要玩家。Lumentum 则掌握激光器、光模块、光路交换(OCS)以及磷化铟(InP)制造能力 两家公司合并,相当于把 AI 数据中心从电信号处理到光信号传输的关键技术整合到了一起。未来 Marvell 在 AI 数据中心互联领域的竞争力将进一步增强,也更有底气与 Broadcom 正面竞争。 更有意思的是,Nvidia 今年已经分别向 MRVL 和 LITE 投资了 20 亿美元。这笔交易再次说明,AI 基础设施的竞争正在从 GPU、定制 ASIC,进一步延伸到带宽、功耗和光互联架构。 Marvell 愿意拿出合并后公司约三分之一的股权,押注下一代 AI 数据中心的光互联市场 1,150 亿美元的估值确实不便宜。如此激进的并购,最终能否创造足够的股东价值,还得看 AI CapEx 的持续性,以及后续业务整合能否兑现预期
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提示词:Your advice for next 10 years. No explanations.
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Damn that's crazy...
$STONK continues to dominate with over 10% launchpad share revenue remains consistent with $150K/day avg and roughly $74k/day avg buybacks (based on 7D rev) total supply burned is nearly 22% now which is the most by any major protocol on solana as i’ve said before, they just need to continue building and dominate with just a fraction of pumpfun launchpad share and they are gucci holding up that $90 - 100M mcap range support pretty well
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JT retweeted
ようこそ世界で一番可愛いブルーガール♩🫐🩵
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