Decoding Global Markets 🌍 | Charts Tell the Truth | Macro • Crypto • Equities | Tweets are not financial advice |
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FOMC Key Changes: Fed paused, but two members still wanted a hike.
1. September raised rates by 1/4 point. Today they held the range at 3-3/4 to 4%.
2. The vote went from unanimous (12-0) to 10-2. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred to raise rates again.
3. Growth language was upgraded from “solid pace” to “strong pace.”
Inflation guidance shifted from “today’s policy action will support a timelier return” to “the accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance.”
They paused, but the statement still keeps the door open for more tightening later.
Rest. #DYOR Follow @NeelMacro
BOOM🚀🚀🚀, As expected, momentum in Crypto.
It also gives market makers the opportunity to hunt liquidity.
In the morning, $110 million of longs were liquidated; now, $31 million of shorts have been liquidated.
$82,000 is key resistance for $BTC
$2,400 is key resistance for $ETH
Fun Part:
Nasdaq down 1.62%
While Russell 2000 up near 1%...
Means damage only in a company, not the entire market...
Actually It's buy the dip call for Crypto.
Rest #DYOR
$GOOG -13% after open, erased over $500 billion in a single day..
$GOOG 11.4% down in pre market after earning.
Revised target:
- Evercore ISI: PT cut to $435 from $450 (Buy/Outperform maintained).
- RBC: PT cut to $400 from $425 (Buy maintained).
- KeyBanc: PT cut to $385 from $410 (Overweight maintained)
- Barclays: PT cut to $405 from $425 (Buy maintained)
- Piper Sandler: PT cut to $345 from $400.
- DA Davidson: PT cut to $300.
- Morgan Stanley PT cut (e.g., to $375 from $425).
SUPPORT IS $275. Do you like to buy it ?
$GOOG 11.4% down in pre market after earning.
Revised target:
- Evercore ISI: PT cut to $435 from $450 (Buy/Outperform maintained).
- RBC: PT cut to $400 from $425 (Buy maintained).
- KeyBanc: PT cut to $385 from $410 (Overweight maintained)
- Barclays: PT cut to $405 from $425 (Buy maintained)
- Piper Sandler: PT cut to $345 from $400.
- DA Davidson: PT cut to $300.
- Morgan Stanley PT cut (e.g., to $375 from $425).
SUPPORT IS $275. Do you like to buy it ?
#JUSTNOW: PCE came in exactly as expected. Core PCE held at 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY.
Headline PCE was also in line at 0.5% MoM and 3.6% YoY. Personal spending missed slightly at 0.5% versus 0.6% expected.
The bigger surprise was growth. Q3 GDP printed 3.4% against a 3.2% forecast, while the GDP price index cooled to 2.2%. Jobless claims improved to 194K.
Inflation is sticky but not accelerating. Growth is still holding up. Fed has little reason to turn dovish from this print.
🚨Bitwise just put a $1.6 million Bitcoin target on the table by 2036.
They call Bitcoin the best-performing major institutional asset of the next decade.
WHERE IS WORLD GOING?
WHAT THEY WANT?
@GROK What you think, this is looked like warning for DOOMSDAY
🚨 WHY IS EVERYONE PREPARING FOR THE WORST AT THE SAME TIME?
🇬🇧 UK: The government tells every household to keep 3 days of supplies, including 9 litres of water per person as a part of "Be Ready" campaign.
🇫🇷 France: The "Tous responsables" guide asks for a 72-hour kit with water, food, basic medicines and a radio.
🇯🇵 Japan: Japanese Minister Hosono urges citizens to stockpile food, water and toilet supplies ahead of potential disasters.
🇩🇪 Germany: Ideally 10 days of food, water, medicine and hygiene supplies, with three days also considered valuable.
Governments are essentially warning that food supplies, electricity and payment systems could all collapse at once.
France calls the first three days of a crisis the decisive window, when you may have to survive on your own before services recover.
Governments saying the threats as cyberattacks, extreme weather, hostile states and critical supply chain disruptions.
The Pentagon is now telling major US military bases to plan to run for 90 days without outside help.
Government officials insist none of this means war is near.
So why is everyone preparing at the same time?
$CAT dropped about 9% after Q3 earnings.
- Revenue: $20.7B, beating expectations of $20.54B 🟢
- Adj EPS: $7.20, beating expectations of $7.08 🟢
Good numbers still got sold. Same pattern is showing up across names this week, beats and misses both getting dumped once the print is out. Wall Street is running a simple “sell the event” trade.
#CATERPILLAR
#Breaking: DoorDash just moved its Q3 earnings forward by almost a week.
It was set for Nov 4 after the close. Now it reports Thursday, Oct 29, before the open, with the call at 5:30 a.m. PT / 8:30 a.m. ET.
Public companies rarely pull earnings forward like this without a reason. The timing lines up with reports that DoorDash is in advanced talks to buy Instacart (CART) in a deal valued around $17 billion. Sources have said an announcement could come as early as this morning.
Markets will be watching both the numbers and any deal news.
$DASH up 1.8% in overnight Market.
#BITCOIN WEEKLY ANALYSIS:
$BTC closed LAST week down 2.40% but held above the weekly MA 50 for the sixth consecutive week despite the US market correction.
Support: $79k and weekly MA 50 near $75,790
Resistance: $85,000 and $87,500
RSI is still at 55, well above 45, so the broader trend stays positive and bullish.
Stochastic RSI is losing momentum as of now. SO DON'T MAKE YOURSELF BULLISH UNTILL IT TURN POSITIVE OR $BTC BOUNCE ABOVE $85K
This week will drive volatility. Bitcoin already lost its daily MA 50. A break below $79k would open the door to $75k, which also lines up with the weekly MA 50.
Bitcoin stays in a bull structure as long as it holds above the weekly MA 50 near $75,790
$GOOGL AT 7 MONTH LOW TRADING BELOW $300.
STOCK ERASED NEAR $350 BILLION IN JUST 35 MINUTE POST WEAKER EARNING.
$GOOG: Alphabet missed on the top line and operating income. Stock is down about 7%.
- Revenue came in at $127.58B against a $127.93B estimate.
- Operating income was $40.58B versus $43.16B expected.
- EPS fell to $2.12 from $2.87 a year ago.
Google Services missed at $96.30B. Search and YouTube ads both came in light. The bright spot was Google Cloud, which beat at $30.71B versus $29.10B expected.
Capex was $51.36B, below the $55.78B estimate. The cloud beat helped, but the miss on the core ad business and lower operating income weighed on the stock after hours.
$MSFT: Microsoft beat on both revenue and earnings. Stock is up about 4%.
Revenue came in at $92.3B against a $90.69B estimate. Adjusted EPS was $4.89 versus $4.73 expected. Operating income rose 21% year over year to $45.9B.
Azure grew 48% to $33.2B. Microsoft Cloud overall was up 30% to $63.9B. Commercial remaining performance obligations stood at $677B. Capex was $39.4B.
There was a small net gain from OpenAI of $207M, or about $0.03 on EPS. Strong cloud and Azure numbers drove the beat and the after-hours move higher.
$GOOG: Alphabet missed on the top line and operating income. Stock is down about 7%.
- Revenue came in at $127.58B against a $127.93B estimate.
- Operating income was $40.58B versus $43.16B expected.
- EPS fell to $2.12 from $2.87 a year ago.
Google Services missed at $96.30B. Search and YouTube ads both came in light. The bright spot was Google Cloud, which beat at $30.71B versus $29.10B expected.
Capex was $51.36B, below the $55.78B estimate. The cloud beat helped, but the miss on the core ad business and lower operating income weighed on the stock after hours.
$CRWV is up 6% today and 24% in the last 3 days. Today’s momentum came with $ORCL.
Till last week both stocks were under pressure for the same reason debt and funding concerns around the AI data center buildout.
CoreWeave has roughly $50 billion in debt. Its bonds were trading at distressed levels, with yields above 15% and credit default swaps near 1,000 basis points. Investors started questioning whether the company can keep raising money at reasonable rates to fund its expansion, even with a large backlog.
Oracle faced similar scrutiny. Heavy spending and rising debt levels put pressure on the stock as the market focused more on financing risk than on AI demand.
The rebound started as Oracle’s Investor Day gave clearer long-term numbers and the broader AI infrastructure names recovered. Demand is still strong. The fear was mainly about how the spending gets funded.
Rest. #DYOR Follow @NeelMacr4
$ORCL up 12%
The move comes from Investor Day. Oracle set a long-term target of $225 billion+ revenue by FY30, more than 35% CAGR from FY26. They also guided positive free cash flow in the second half of FY28 and $30 billion+ in FY29.
They reaffirmed FY27 revenue of at least $90 billion. The company said growth will be self-funded from FY29 and additional capital raises through FY30 are limited to $20 billion.
AI cloud infrastructure remains the main growth driver. The stock is reacting to clearer long-term numbers after the heavy spending concerns.
Rest. #DYOR Follow @NeelMacro
$ORCL up 12%
The move comes from Investor Day. Oracle set a long-term target of $225 billion+ revenue by FY30, more than 35% CAGR from FY26. They also guided positive free cash flow in the second half of FY28 and $30 billion+ in FY29.
They reaffirmed FY27 revenue of at least $90 billion. The company said growth will be self-funded from FY29 and additional capital raises through FY30 are limited to $20 billion.
AI cloud infrastructure remains the main growth driver. The stock is reacting to clearer long-term numbers after the heavy spending concerns.
Rest. #DYOR Follow @NeelMacro
Stock to Watch: $ORCL (Oracle)
Oracle is currently testing a critical long-term support at the Weekly MA 300 — a level that has strongly held the stock since 2008.
On the daily chart, $ORCL looks oversold with solid support between $120 – $125.
Key Catalyst:
Financial Times reports that Oracle is leading the race to supply Japan with top-secret cloud services.
Japan chose a US cloud provider after high-level discussions with Washington and a direct conversation between President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in March. The US has been pushing Japan to strengthen its cybersecurity due to vulnerabilities to Chinese hacking. Air-gapped cloud solutions (not connected to the internet) provide the highest level of security.
Oracle, whose founder Larry Ellison is a known Trump ally, positioned itself early as the most secure option and has emerged as the frontrunner.
#Breaking: Apple just changed the Mac forever.
First ever touchscreen MacBook Pro is here. PROLED tandem OLED display and Dynamic Island now on macOS.
14-inch starts at $2,899
16-inch starts at $3,399
They didn’t just add a touch layer. Touch sensors are built into the panel, zero latency. And the glowing Apple logo is back on the lid.
M5 Pro and M5 Max chips. Thinner OLED so these are lighter too.
Pre-orders live now. Stores from Friday, November 6.