DFS burner. Recently getting in to prediction markets. Mostly just complaining about Pick6 rule changes and all the fake "prediction markets" launching.
Joined August 2019
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Trying to force you into a "for you" algorithm has kind of ruined twitter on my main feed but the degenerate shit it feeds me on this account is pretty entertaining.
All this time I've seen people talk about vibe coding and I assumed it was some new project management theory like Agile not just letting AI models rip from scratch.
Seems Draftkings has also gone the route of not allowing limit orders with their "prediction market." Sad
Maybe I am just old but I hate that everything launches as mobile only these days. Let me use my computer.
I'm all for prediction markets but I don't really see how these Kalshi parlays qualify. As far as I can tell the public can only use one side of it so either they are running an unregulated sportsbook with them or allowing just a few select market makers to.
So on Underdog's "prediction" markets you can't even post your own price to make the spreads tighter so there clearly doesn't have to be another person besides them on the other side of each transaction.
Assuming in the next 3 months Pick6 will further limit any correlated picks or implement some sort of multiplier function on them and start limiting winning players
Fanduels new pickem game. The guarantees are significantly higher than pick6 but calling these games "peer to peer" at this point is disingenuous
Kalshi seems to grow more confident in their legal standing every month. went from only offering futures, to effectively individual games for the NCAA tournament and tennis tournaments but wording it as "round of x qualifiers." Now just offering individual NBA game winners.
I'm pretty bored but I have a hard time believing doing these playoff best ball drafts before week 18 can be a very good idea unless you get in drafts with a lot of people taking Montgomery, Bengals and Dolphins players all early
I've noticed DK has started to make the QB and top WR yardage lines for Pick6 slightly higher than the normal sportsbook line. If they insist on less extreme variable payouts they should be more aggressive on that until the overs aren't used by 40% of people and the unders by 5%
After letting the new pick6 changes play out for a couple weeks I think it is roughly a net neutral for NFL in terms of playability but definitely makes it a lot less fun. NBA is virtually unplayable other than the 2 pick level now.
Changes to the prizing/contest size aside there is no reason that DK needed to remove the live prizes feature of pick6. Honestly it would probably help them for people to see when the minimums are boosting their prizes.
@Betopenly The new parlay changes should probably help parlays get filled.
The other thing I would consider looking at is the fee structure when housing a long odds parlay. If you house a parlay at -2000 the 1% fee ends up being over 20% of what you win right?