@NicoAIQ

Non-tech Hooman w/in a quant framework. Creativity won't come from an LLM. 🇺🇸 in UY/AR NOT ADVICE. Not financial or any type of advice, but strong opinions.

 South America
archaiq.ai
Joined January 2024
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  • Following581
  • Followers2.2K
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Nico
@NicoAIQSep 13
I’ll add this to the free section to explain what I call “two-tails.” What makes El Niños unique is that precipitation becomes more predictable (clustered), while temps tend to rise in specific regions and timeframes. This is why so many traders are piling into the El Niño trade: it’s predictable, which means a higher probability of directional price outcomes. nicoaiq.substack.com/p/el-ni…
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🇺🇸 agriculture's competitiveness is on the decline. Handouts have become policy, while the credibility of the USDA is in free fall. Turning this around starts with transparency, accountability, and data the industry can trust.
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nicoaiq.substack.com/p/on-be…
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Scoring FOB competitiveness. Easily see how the 🇺🇸 went from most competitive, to one of the least competitive. 🇺🇸 will get more competitive again over the next 4 weeks.
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Legacy newsletter realizing AI will write your reports. Cue the 7,000 word dissertation on how the Brazilian FX impacts soybeans lmao
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Many of the FERPs still won't get it 👇 xitter.cf/NicoAIQ/status/2115137…
Nico
@NicoAIQ20h
FERPs masquerade as experts in the age of AI, but accidentally make posts that show they don't know the slightest about how the business works. Do people think that if the Bulgarian Lev or Russian Ruble devals that wheat prices magically fall by that much everywhere?
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For those blaming USDA’s shocking moves on headcount reductions, I’d like to point out that Managed Money, Algorithmic Traders & Hedge Funds don’t use any field enumerators. They forecast using Satellite Imagery & Digital Models at a fraction of the cost, with daily updates.
Benjamin Riensche@BenRiensche19h
With the recent USDA foibles, it’s not about looking for math errors in irrigated corn acres or ear length calcs: -It’s repeated negative reports just as things were looking up -Reports varying so widely from top analysts -Negative wildcards in inventories, acres, carryover
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Live video of me reviewing @usda_nass and WASDE decisions one by one. “OMG there more yield issues in each state” On a serious note, don’t mess with this man’s 🐝 🐝
Brock Riddick
@BrockRiddickIFB23h
These hornets attacked his Bee hive. Now he is waiting for them on the outside.
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FERPs masquerade as experts in the age of AI, but accidentally make posts that show they don't know the slightest about how the business works. Do people think that if the Bulgarian Lev or Russian Ruble devals that wheat prices magically fall by that much everywhere?
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Unprecedented behavior from the #PolarVortex deserves an unprecedented blog. Usually I try to argue what's the the correct forecast, here I try to convince you that whichever forecast you believe to be correct, don't. Hopefully thought provoking! Blog live published.aer.com/aoblog/aob…
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One of the favorite past times for Brazilians and Argentines is to plan their holidays in whichever country offer better bang for the buck. BRL to ARS is in the 90th percentile discount
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Friendly reminder that @USDA picks and chooses when to adopt its own agency's figures w/no public explanation. Let's see what they do with this change in November. Domestic demand for meal is growing, but not corn? What do animals eat? A broken process.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2026: Let’s Put a Little Context Around What We Witnessed in Brazil Today. Cash Grain Basis Is Acting As We’d Expect. CFTC to Start Semi-Weekly Reporting — It’s a Nothingburger.
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tomorrow morning I'll send out the first look at how South Africa's growing season started.
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Oliver - Blue Line Futures
@OliverSloupOct 26
Exciting news!
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Today's move in the BRL makes top 10 all-time in the last 30+ years in weekly moves. The largest single day devaluation since 2003. A testament to how crowded these trades become in the current era.
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This is what the Civil War map looked like.
Pat Thorman
@Pat_ThormanOct 26
Kings in the north
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Old enough to remember when Truflation was nothing more than thinly veiled propaganda… oh yeah, still trash lol. Seems like little more than a lagging glorified energy and logistics beta, with some downward biases.
Danny Dayan
@DannyDayan5Oct 26
It's funny how nobody posts this slop thing anymore because it no longer fits their narrative. If someone you follow posted it repeatedly when it was < 2% but doesn't post it now, you have identified someone with a bias.
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🇺🇸 Costs of ag production were moving in the wrong direction, and got less competitive after today. 🇧🇷 Growing season starts out much more favorable after this move.
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someone's blowing out of sugar
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Now's probably a great time to review what I wrote back in July on Brazil and stocks to watch. nicoaiq.substack.com/p/the-l…
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