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India
Joined February 2019
Building an "Axis of Influence," Creating an "Axis of Resistance" Last week’s state visit by Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu to Pakistan, where he held discussions with de facto ruler Asim Munir and signed 20 agreements spanning defense, maritime security, cybersecurity, AI and intelligence sharing, has raised significant geopolitical red flags in New Delhi. It signals that, despite India’s overtures and concessions (including bilateral bailouts, debt extensions and currency swaps to shore up the Maldivian economy), the Islamist-leaning Muizzu has not fully abandoned the anti-India plank that helped catapult him to power. He took office in November 2023 after campaigning on an “India Out” platform. As president, Muizzu has softened his public rhetoric toward India. But after securing critical financial lifelines from New Delhi for his cash-strapped country, he concluded free-trade agreements with China and Turkey. Muizzu’s agreements with Islamabad, including commitments to deepen defense and intelligence ties with Pakistan, underscore that his underlying strategy remains one of strategic hedging against India. Bringing Pakistan into defense capacity-building in the Indian Ocean, where the Maldives sits astride key sea lines of communication (SLOCs), directly challenges India’s strategic depth and naval surveillance in its immediate neighborhood. As a hedge against India, Muizzu appears to be facilitating a Sino-Pakistani “Axis of Influence” along the SLOCs in the Maldives’ strategic periphery. This could be viewed in New Delhi as an attempt to construct an “Axis of Resistance” against India.
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Brazil voted Lula back in on Sunday, 51.8% to 48.2%. In thin overnight trading the real fell about 9%, and a Tokyo-listed Brazil ETF opened down 11%. Does this change why I own Brazil? Not much. I hold Brazil for three reasons. 1) It is one of the cheapest large stock markets in the world. 2) It is a commodity exporter and can benefit from a commodity supercycle. 3) Its real interest rate, the policy rate minus inflation, is close to 9%. You get paid well to wait. Both were true before the first round. Then Flávio Bolsonaro’s surprise lead sent stocks up 7.7% to a record. That jump was a bet on reform, even though Flávio had rejected pension reform. That is the part now coming off. A Lula win probably keeps spending higher and hence rates higher for longer. So the 'rate-cut' catalyst looks more uncertain. The Brazilian Congress though leans right and can block him. One has to wait and watch.
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The best thing about a day after a selloff is how easily it reveals true strength
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Replying to @Ars3286
Rising interest rates means probably a bear market
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India’s market has settled into two comfortable stories. Both are fake. One half treats us as the global anti-AI trade - waiting, as @ruchirsharma_1 Ruchir Sharma noted, for the bubble to burst so foreign money returns. The other half still believes delivery apps, resellers, and PLI-box-checking solar or battery companies will deliver generational wealth by burning private-equity cash and racing to the bottom. Neither camp is building anything that compounds. One hopes someone else’s model fails. The other pretends scale and subsidies equal innovation. As Ruchir put it, the opposite of love is not hate but indifference - and right now the world is simply looking past us while we wait for someone else’s story to collapse. FIIs will keep selling until we stop pretending to be what we aren't yet. #Nifty #NiftyBank #SENSEX #Markets
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Trump must be furious... Ukraine launched a massive attack on a Russian oil terminal. This terminal is mainly used to export refined products like diesel... The midterms are approaching, and inflation is already a major problem for Trump... Well, it's about to get worse. - He won't get additional diesel supplies from Europe - No additional supplies from Russia - And Iran is expanding its attacks on energy infrastructure In other words, energy prices will keep rising... And so will inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, AI, the most important growth driver for the US, is finally feeling the pinch of higher rates and inflation. If AI growth slows down, so will tax receipts, meaning the deficit will rise and Warsh will be forced to step in and print the difference while inflation is surging. We don't own enough gold for what's coming.
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This is UNREAL! A Indian mining company: Lloyd Metals has undercut and won one of the biggest copper and gold mine in the world from one of the biggest mining firms in China! They gave the President’s Wife a Kidney Transplant in India saving her life! Indian Mining has ARRIVED
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If you’re intelligent but still broke, work on your ego.
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A big uncomfortable takeaway from the Sept trade data is that India's software & services exports have started slowing, probably due to A.I.! Sept services surplus was down 10% yoy and April-Sept services surplus was up only 4%. Our goods exports are doing fabulously (up 23% in Sept), so goods trade deficit is declining -down 8.5% yoy in Sept. But it's still a deficit of $30bn for Sept & $177.6 bn for Apr-Sept. That deficit needs to be filled. Slowing services exports, probably due to A.I. is worrying. @FinMinIndia @RBI @CafeEconomics
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AI equity trade sucked away rest of the world Liquidity and led to rising dollar as rest of the world currencies and assets were sold to buy into AI trade. AI companies massive bond borrowing also contributed to rising U.S. bond yields. On a duration-adjusted basis, it is closer to about 12% of annual Treasury supply. If AI trade were to reverse then expect 1. Falling US dollar 2. Falling U.S. bond yields 3. Rising non AI related assets.
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Besides the inherent contradiction of trump's decision to buy Russian fuel, after his administration spent months harassing and punishing #India for doing trade with #Russia, there are two interesting points to note. First, this is an acknowledgement that the West's sanctions policy, put in place by Biden, Macron and Johnson aimed at weakening Putin's 'war machine', has been a total failure. Europeans, who cut back on buying cheap Russian energy weakening their own economies (Germany even lost its pipeline) may now be groping in the dark. Second, trump has just torpedoed the Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. How can Zelenskyy continue to bomb Russian refineries when the Americans are preparing to buy diesel from Russia?
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Literally the dumbest motherfucker on the planet.
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It's been 14 months since I wrote this essay on Trump and U.S.-India relations. Was pretty clear to me even then where this was going to end up: carnegieendowment.org/emissa…
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Parts of India that have poor coverage are tribal areas in Jungles of central India, desert and salt marshes in the west, heights in Ladakh and tribal hills of north east India. No one in these parts can afford to pay for Starlink. If you are so concerned make it free first.
Starlink will be of great help to areas of India that have bad or no Internet and even no mobile coverage. No country has perfect coverage, including America, but Starlink can fill in the coverage gaps for those who most need it.
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We're coming to India. Home to some of the world's best tech companies and developers. Planning to add 240 MW with @AdaniConneX and building a local team. $CRWV
CoreWeave is partnering with AdaniConneX to establish our first infrastructure presence in India 🇮🇳 We also plan to open a local office and hire professionals from the region's vibrant and growing AI ecosystem. More here: crwv.co/utebi
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RBI: The way I see it, there is no reason NOT to hike. -Inflation is above target. More than half of the CPI basket items with inflation above 4%. -Oil high, food prices rising globally. -Currency pressures persist despite $140 billion in flows. -Growth above expectation. -Global rates rising. So 25 hike bps seems like an easy choice. But will they go beyond? And what will RBI do to signal how far the hiking cycle goes? This piece lays out the data: reuters.com/world/india/broa… And read here for the expectations in the market: reuters.com/world/india/mark…
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Follow up: 🚨TDB pauses fresh RDI Fund applications to clear backlog as over 230 deep-tech proposals pile up So far, TDB has committed around Rs 2,900 crore across 35 projects, while another set of proposals is at different stages of evaluation, people familiar with the matter told Moneycontrol. The board has also received around 175 proposals between June and September alone. The sharp increase in applications has led TDB to pause fresh proposals while it processes those already in its pipeline. “The demand has been much higher than what was initially expected, and the evaluation process is fairly detailed. The technical and financial aspects of each proposal have to be assessed, which takes time. The pause is not because the funds from the government have not come through,” said a person familiar with the matter. By @AryamanGupta_ moneycontrol.com/news/busine……
Govt's Rs 1 lakh crore deep-tech fund hits pause, TDB halts fresh applications The Technology Development Board (TDB) has stopped accepting applications under the government's Rs 1 lakh crore Research, Development and Innovation (RDI) Fund, putting new proposals on hold. In a September 29 notification, TDB said the invitation for funding would be closed after September 30 “due to administrative reasons”. The notification didn't specify the reasons or when the funding window will reopen. The RDI Fund was approved by the cabinet in July 2025 with an outlay of Rs 1 lakh crore over six years. It aims to increase private-sector investment in research and development across areas including artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum technologies, biotechnology and space. Funding is routed through Second-Level Fund Managers (SLFMs), which provide capital to eligible companies and projects. TDB and the Biotechnology Industry Research Assistance Council (BIRAC) were designated as the initial SLFMs, with the government also seeking to bring AIFs, focused research organisations and other financial institutions into the programme. By @AryamanGupta_ moneycontrol.com/news/busine…
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Pine Labs , product wise competitive positioning of merchant platforms, reading this one source: motilal oswal
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Future of warfare.
JUST IN: Ukraine’s defense minister announces “We’re launching the Army of Robots,” seeking to automate warfare & replace soldiers on the most dangerous missions.
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Thinking about the latest #Trump-#Xi #G2 truce? Read my analysis where I explain the key takeaways turning #TRUCE into an acronym where : T — for trade truce extended. R — for reciprocal leverage retained — Chinese rare earths versus American technology controls. U — for an unsettled Taiwan. C — for competition contained, not concluded. E — for engagement expanded, particularly on artificial intelligence (AI), without much new institutional architecture. Finally, how this #TRUCE drives bipolarity at the grand level, while middle order’s pushback with plurilaterals. #Trump_Xi #comprehensiveStrategicStability #US_China #G2
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