$ATAI deal with Lily is pretty interesting, here's my opinion on the implications: First off, clearly bearish for Compass because, "Why didn't Lily buy $CMPS?". They would have evaluated the two and the transaction may be interpreted as favoring ATAI's platform, although Lilly's reasoning has not been publicly disclosed. Some investors may view this as a negative signal. Directionally negative/bearish doesn't mean absolutely bearish though. The likely reasons for Lily to pick ATAI instead: 1) They want to bet on the shorter acting drug 2) ATAI is probably cheaper to acquire than CMPS 3) They like the strategic profile ATAI's offerings over CMPS. (1) Makes sense as people worry about the 6-8 hour treatment regime for CMPS. I personally believe those worries are overblown. Plus, DFTX has a similar treatment regime and the market doesn’t seem too worried about that when trading it at a $6B valuation. (2) CMPS probably can't be acquired for less than $4-$5B. Not at this stage of the game. ATAI is going for $2.8B plus $1B CVR. So yes, it's cheaper, but this argument is pretty weak because Lily has a >1 Trillion dollar market cap so the price differences to them are largely rounding errors. (3) ATAI has a different drug mechanism and a few different avenues to commercialize. But ATAI is 2.5+ years behind Compass on approval (and meaningful risk of failure with the additional steps). --- On the bullish side, I think this increases the pressure on an acquiror, specifically JNJ to consider acting. They presumably want to defend their current Spravato brand/drug/market share. If Lily is taking ATAI, and if someone else takes Compass, it becomes a very challenging and competitive space in 2030 and beyond. A plausible defense here is that a potential acquisition of CMPS by JNJ is one of several possible outcomes and has ~3 years to really solidify their leadership in the market before Lily shows up. Plus it lets JNJ further monetize the REMS-clinic infrastructure that they spent so long building out for Spravato, instead of letting CMPS (or some CMPS acquiror) take advantage of it. Overall this development doesn't meaningfully change my thesis in either direction. My full writeup here: xitter.cf/kevin__mak/status/2075… Disclosure: Long $CMPS, no position in $ATAI Creek Drive and its affiliated funds may hold positions in securities discussed. Views expressed are current opinions for informational educational only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link above for more important information.