Macro analyst @WealthGroup - Join me here ↓
Joined December 2021
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I prepared a new market overview with a focus on crypto, stock markets and current macro developments.
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Funny how markets are possibly pricing in democrats taking over the majority in the Congress like it matters. Markets always find reasons to go up because they are designed that way, regardless of who wins the US midterms.
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I think bitcoin:native is holding up relatively well, not only considering the scale of the Binance hack, but also the turmoil in equities, where several large-cap stocks have missed earnings expectations and suffered double-digit declines.
Pretty wild how BTC and BTC/SPX still follow the March 2023 fractal precisely. The FUD source back then was different, but it is always something that brings the market towards big areas.
$BTC finally getting into the 50W/200D moving averages as discussed a few weeks ago after the 3D bear div formed. I think this is a bullish retest which should print a higher low. Anything from here down to 72Kish should be for accumulation with an invalidation below 69K-67K.
$BTC finally getting into the 50W/200D moving averages as discussed a few weeks ago after the 3D bear div formed. I think this is a bullish retest which should print a higher low. Anything from here down to 72Kish should be for accumulation with an invalidation below 69K-67K.
I am still locally cautious with BTC as it has yet to reset or invalidate the 3D bearish divergence it printed below yearly open recently. I remain optimistic on the macro outlook though. I think if BTC goes for a higher low scenario at some point, the first big area of interest should be high 70Ks, where we have the 50W moving averages which were recently flipped.m
I don't think BTC is in a distribution phase here. It rather looks like re-accumulation before higher. We may or may not tap lower towards the 200D/50W moving averages, but I think ultimately it will trade higher. Invalidation would be a weekly close below 67K.
Three years as a macro analyst in @WealthGroup. Thank you all for being part of my journey and trusting my analysis. Your support means a lot. Here’s to more years together! 💚
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BTC continues to show relative weakness against the S&P500 after rejecting at our resistance zone a few weeks ago. This has been something we have expected when this zone was reached and is only logical after weeks of BTC outperforming the SPX. Remember, the weekly bullish divergence on SPX during summer market the bottom for the index.
The divergence has not been reset yet. Once this box is broken, BTC's outperformance against the SPX will mean a more parabolic move in the crypto market, likely towards new highs for BTC and the index. This certainly takes time as this is a macro chart. Moving forward, it is worth noting that the index is following the exact pattern as in 2023. I am not a fan of bar patterns as they can easily break, especially when they get too prominent.
However, such bar pattern also shows how deep BTC and BTC/SPX can drop before continuation higher, even in bull markets. In 2023, the index dropped towards the 200D SMA before printing a higher high and initiating a macro uptrend.
This translated into a 20% drop for BTC. It is important to keep this is as an open option, as in case we actually get something similar, we are prepared and not caught off guard. I believe that over the next months BTC will continue to outperform the SPX.
Bottom on BTC/SPX
In hindsight it was such a good idea to focus on crypto over stocks.
Above the green box, we can talk about a macro change of trend for the index.
Resistance here, so not an area for new buys, but I remain confident that eventually this will be broken and BTC outperforms the SPX for at least a year.
