+403.5u in 2024. Fully transparent. Winning Staff with NBA/WNBA/NFL/CFB/MLB for $25/mo! Betting Staff: @calebbets3 , @QuentinLocks, & @sammygprops
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The NFL writeup for TNF between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots has arrived from our man @calebbets3 👀
Extensive writing you won’t find here else, only at notify 🤌
10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT:
TNF W7: NE v CHI. 63°F, No Wind/Rain.
1) The Patriots have won 3 games straight, where Maye has broken out of his early season slump. In his first three weeks, Maye was sacked 9 times, compared to just 2 in the last 3.
Noting this as The Pats are missing both starting guards (Vera-Tucker, Brown), with Moses (RT) questionable after missing last week. Lomu will join this starting line, who allowed zero pressures last week vs NYJ.
2) The Bears are generating the 4th highest pressure rate this season, while 8th in Sacks (17), and 5th in opposing Catchable throw rate. So yes, the front depletion for NE is going to be cumbersome.
Can start with a note on Pats rushers, as Corey Kiner emerged last week with 11 Att for 57 Yards, which included 8 straight in the 4th to burn the clock.
“[Kiner] runs hard, and it’s the same way he’s selling the kickoff returns... We got three capable backs and you ride the hot hand" - Vrabel
3) Bears love their man coverage, and Maye has yet to throw the ball to A.J. Brown when facing it. Brown is looking for a rebound already after he notched 4 drops last week:
"There's no excuses...Just trying to get going again...Put this to bed really fast, I'm gonna watch the tape, and it's over, imma flush it." - Brown
4) Da Bears offense is back to full strength with the exception of Kyle Monangai. Without him last week, Bears carry distribution featured 16 to Swift and 13 to Johnson, though Swift had 4 of the 5 goal line carries.
Swift has notched 15+ carries in all 5 games where he hasn't got injured this season. 5 straight RB1s have covered their receiving yards prop vs New England.
5) Patriots rush defense is ranking Top 10 in OPP YPC and Success Rate this season. Granted, we have now seen 4 of 6 starting backs cross 4.5 YPC; Only 1 of them notched over 2 receptions, and that was Jeanty amidst a 28 Pt loss.
Bears offense runs Zone concepts on 56.5% of attempts, sitting in that Top 10 with Jags (30-137 v NE) and SEA (22-97). Patriots loss both of those games.
6) Caleb Williams is back and passing into a man-heavy Pats secondary, which is missing a starting CB in Carlton Davis III.
Williams has a 76% completion rate vs man, which is +5% comparative to zone, yet has came with a significant hit in Yds/DB (5.5 v 6.78).
7) Colston Loveland showed up last week, notching 6 receptions for 65 yards and recording his first TD of the season. When Williams is facing man, he's in 12 personnel (2 TE, 2 WR) at the 2nd lowest rate in the league (15%).
Loveland has played two games with Caleb against above average man-coverage teams, where he totaled 1 receptions for 3 yards (which was vs zone).
8) Instead, The Patriots are allowing the 6th highest target rate to wideouts. Kalif Raymond notched 214 of his 244 receiving yards in his opening 3 games, and has a chance to boom again here.
He generated 0.36 TPRR vs Man in the aforementioned sample, doubling the next closest Bear.
Last week Raymond played just 47% of snaps, the only time he has logged <60% with Williams. Odunze remains the leader here at 96%, yet 5 straight WR1s have gone under their receiving yards prop vs NE.
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, and TRENDS!
The Commanders covered their +7.5 vs San Francisco on Monday Night, which moves primetime dogs to 8-2 since Week 1 (excl. SNF).
The Bears have given up just 1.5 FGA per game this season, with 0 last week, ranking them 5th. This was because The Falcons scored on every RedZone trip, yet The Bears at home have allowed a 20% RZ score rate (compared to 90% on the road!).
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10 THINGS TO EXPECT IN THE NFL TONIGHT
MNF W6: WSH v SF. 64°F, 11% Rain.
1) No Croskey-Merritt (groin) for The Commanders tonight, which will leave Rachaad White as the lead back. Tough timing, as Daniels had only just returned to Washington last week and JCM was coming off his most productive game of the season.
White already played 60% of snaps last week compared to Ekeler's 10%; Expect him to handle bulk of carry and route share.
2) Commanders' backfield will be running into a beat up SF Front 7 that is missing Greenlaw (SUSP), Bosa (knee/calf), Wallow (hamstring) and has RDT Halton questionable. The Strong Safety Sigle is also out here with an ankle injury, so yea, injury bug is here.
On the season, The 49ers have allowed the 3rd highest Success Rate (45.1%), yet by far the lowest Explosive Rate (3%!!). This leaves us with 3 RBs already notching 20+ carries vs SF:
- Love 21 Att, 90 Yds
- Achana 20 Att, 74 Yds
- Wilson 20 Att, 61 Yds
Love leads the group at 4.3 YPC, with a long of just 8 yards.
3) It doesn't get much better injury wise on the offensive side for SF, with Deebo Samuel already ruled out and Mike Evans possibly joining him with a rib issue. Bear in mind this WR core is already missing Stribling, Pearsall and Robinson on IR.
From Larry Kreuger, "Just came off the field at #49ers’ Saturday practice. Based on what I saw, I’d be very surprised if Mike Evans plays on Monday. He was off to the side."
4) With both Evans and Samuel out, Christian McCaffrey has generated 0.27 TPRR, followed by Kittle at 0.26 TPRR.
This season, The Commanders have ran 2-HI safety looks on 59.4% of opposing drop backs -- 3rd highest rate in the league. Logically, this coverage look funnels more receptions to RBs.
McCaffrey has notched 0.28 TPRR vs 2-HI, and 0.33 TPRR against their top individual look of Cover 2.
5) Hard to understate how incredible Brock Purdy has been. He is now the all time leader in EPA/Play (min. 48 GP), while leading the field in Passer Rating this season (119.3) despite facing three consensus Top 3 pass coverages in LAR, SEA and DEN. Wow.
Now, he faces a WSH secondary that not only ranks B10 vs backfield receivers (McCaffrey), yet also with these marks:
- 69.3% Catch Rate (24th)
- 1,380 Air Yards (21st)
- 11.2% Lead WR TGT Rate (28th, Evans 📈)
6) Jayden Daniels is of course a different QB, currently leading the field in Scramble Rate at 16.3%. The 49ers have given up just 5 scrambles this season, good for 2nd fewest in the league.
This stems from their high volume of 1-HI safety schemes, which they run at the 5th highest rate. Here is Daniels vs the other Top 10 in 1-HI Freq%:
- 7 Rush, 69 Yds vs DAL
2025
- 11 Rush, 68 Yds vs NYG
- 10 Rush, 52 Yds vs CHI
Conflicting.
7) Jayden Daniels has had his struggles against 1-HI, producing 5.02 Yds/DB, which ranks 34th of 42 QBs with >20 DBs.
We already noted the Front 7 injuries for SF, so would expect their current Top 5 Pressure Rate to regress a bit. Daniels has sat at a B5 1.63 Yds/DB against Pressure, so a clean pocket is really key to any hope at a WSH win tonight.
8) Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable, yet didn't participate in Thursday's practice while being limited in Friday's. Granted, WSH limited a ton of their offensive contributors, so may be less important than typical.
He leads the team in TPRR against both 1-HI (0.25) and Cover 1 (0.24).
9/10) KICKERS, D/ST, TRENDS!
After The Broncos home-upset Seattle on TNF, non-Sunday primetime dogs are now 7-2 since Week 1.
No team is giving up more FGA/gp in their L3 games than San Francisco, at a whopping 3.7. This was most recently capped off by Jason Myers, who went 5/5 with all being 40+ Yards. It has now been 4 straight weeks where an opposing kicker has 3+ FGA.
The Commanders have given up 14 Pass TDs (3rd most) despite just 5 GP, with 12 of them occurring in the RedZone and 7 to Tight Ends (Kittle 📈).
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SOLID DAY OF FOOTBALL🔥
Sunday NFL Week 6 Recap⬇️
✅Blake Corum O 40.5 Rushing Yards
✅Woody Marks O 13.5 Receiving Yards
✅Aaron Rodgers O 33.5 Pass Attempts
✅Kendre Miller O 34.5 Rushing Yards
✅Chuba Hubbard O 17.5 Rush Attempts
🪝Rome Odunze 40+ Receiving Yards
❌Dalton Kincaid O 46.5 Receiving Yards
Super close to a 7-0 day…brutal losses with Kincaid and Odunze😩
❤️IF YOU MADE SOME MONEY W/ ME!⬇️
Game 1 of the WNBA Finals is a SWEEP for our guy @calebbets3! Plenty more to come for the remaining games between the Valks and Dream, join us and cash 🤝
✅ Kayla Thornton u13.5 PRA
✅ Kiah Stokes o2.5 PTS
✅ Kiah Stokes 5+ Pts | +225
✅ Angel Reese u0.5 3s
Easy NFL sweep last night from the fellas @calebbets3 and @QuentinLocks 🤝
Gearing up for WNBA playoffs this weekend and NBA a week from today 👀
✅ Josh Allen u246.5 Pass Yds
✅ James Cook o73.5 Rush Yds
Keys to the WNBA playoff games tonight presented by @calebbets3 👀
Game 3 Article coming in under an hour, then a few free picks from there 🍀✍️
If you want access NOW to the full article + my current 6 bets, feel free to hop in here:
patreon.com/calebbets
WNBA playoffs keep FIRING with our guy @calebbets3! Huge night of green as the playoffs wind down. Join us before end of the playoffs as we head into NBA 🍻
Recap | 10.7.26:
+3.03u
✅ Rhyne Howard o7.5 RA
✅ Jonquel Jones o23.5 PR
✅ DeWanna Bonner u13.5 Pts
✅ Stephanie Talbot o0.5 3s
✅ Stephanie Talbot 2+ 3s | +340
✅ Cecilia Zandalasini o1.5 Reb
❌ Atlanta Dream TT u86.5
Notify Picks is thriving as we continue WNBA playoffs and get college football and NFL rolling. Join us in the discord and cash every day with us 🤝
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September is CLOSED 🫅🗣️
+29.72u Total | 40% ROI
+13.89u in FIBA | 43.4% ROI
Our futures settled, the women hooped around the world, and we had the best month this year!
HAVE A WNBA PLAYOFF DAY @calebbets3 🧨💰
+3.5U on the day, sheesh!!
✅ Gabby Williams o21.5 PRA
✅ Shakira Austin u19.5 Pts
✅ A’ja Wilson o9.5 Reb
✅ Caitlin Clark u37.5 PRA
✅ Awak Kuier u9.5 Pts
✅ Jessica Shepard u33.5 FS
❌ Gabby/Arike o3.5 3s
Valks & Aces wins, great for our futures bets 👀
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FREE YEAR OF VIP TO SOMEONE WHO LIKES❤️⤵️
NFL TNF Week 3 Recap🧹🧹
✅✅Drake London 5+ Receptions
✅✅🧹6+ Receptions (+116)
✅✅🧹 7+ Receptions (+220)
✅✅MarShawn Lloyd U 28.5 Rushing Yards
✅✅Michael Penix Jr. U 4.5 Rushing Yards
MEGA SWEEEEEEEP☢️
Loved all three reads a ton…let’s roll it into the weekend!
SHOW SOME LOVE IF YOU TAILED!❤️
Our man @calebbets3 cooked last night and would’ve had a massive sweep if Jose Fernandez didn’t play his starters 30+ minutes in a meaningless game 👎
Final slate of the season tonight before playoffs - buckle up 🍿
✅ Dominique Malonga o14.5 Pts
✅ Sabrina Ionescu u27.5 FS
✅ Natisha Hiedeman o4 Ast
✅ Flau’Jae Johnson o21.5 PR
✅ Jordin Canada o0.5 3s
✅ Paige Bueckersu16 FGA
🪝 Jessica Shepard u11.5 FGA
❌ Arike Ogunbawale u16 Pts
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Recap | 9.23.26:
+1.18u
✅ - Malonga o14.5 Pts
DFS:
✅ - Sabrina u27.5 FS
✅ - Natisha o4 Ast
✅ - Flau’Jae o21.5 PR
✅ - Canada o0.5 3s
✅ - Paige u16 FGA
🪝 - Shepard u11.5 FGA
❌ - Arike u16 Pts
Put too much trust in Jose to regulate starter mins, sold my 🧹.
Last reg szn slate tomorrow 🤟🗣️
No NFL, no problem. Hot off FIBA’s +13U stretch, @calebbets3 keeps firing with plenty of WNBA green! Join us as playoffs approach and profit 🤝
✅ Jessica Shepard o31.5 PRA | -111
✅ Flau'Jae Johnson o13.5 Pts
✅ Aaliyah Edwards u6 Reb
✅ Natisha Hiedeman u24.5 FS
✅ Kiki Iriafen/Azura Stevens u28 Pts
✅ Nyadiew Pouch o2.5 Reb
🪝 Awa Fam 15+ PR
❌ Rae Burrell o14.5 Pts
The soccer guys in Notify continue to CRUSH. Get it all in the discord 💰💰💰
9/7 - 9/10 Recap: +4.09U
✅Anton/Barella PP
✅Mbappe Parlay FD
✅Javi Lopez 2+ Tackles
✅Dembele/Hancko PP
❌Stensness/Szo PP
❌Juan/Mbappe PP
Our man @calebbets3 has been DOMINATING the FIBA World Cup this month! +4.6U off yesterday alone. Only a few more games left before we get back into WNBA, check out all the green below and join us in the Notify discord 🤝
✅🇭🇺 - Takacs-Kiss u14.5 Pts | -110 🪶
✅🇺🇸 - Stewart u15.5 Pts | -155
✅🇩🇪 - Fiebich o8.5 Pts w/ FRA 1HML
🪝🇩🇪 - Fiebich u9.5 Reb | -140 🪶
❌🇭🇺 - Hungary +33.5 | -110
✅🇭🇺 - Dorka u1.5 3s | -140
✅🇭🇺 - Takacs-Kiss u1.5 3s | -250
✅🇩🇪 - Buehner u2.5 3s | -165
DFS:
✅ - Xu u35.5 FS
✅ - Guelich u17.5 PRA
✅ - Vanloo u20.5 PA
✅ - Salaun o19.5 FS
❌ - Yang u26 FS
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Books are HOT:
✅ - Italy +30.5
✅ - Meesseman o4.5 Ast
✅ - Fiebich u29.5 PRA
✅ - Sabally u23.5 PRA
✅ - Hungary -1.5
✅ - Stafford u11.5 Reb
✅ - Zandalasini u26.5 PRA
More tonight, make some coin for NFL Sunday 🍀♥️
Use code 'FIBA' to get the rest of The Cup for just $5:
dubclub.win/r/p/pri-mn99n/?c…
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Wake and cash indeed 🙂↕️✅
Just 2 points for Takacs-Kiss… who wants another?
WAKE AND CASH 🌞🍀
Takacs-Kiss u14.5 Pts | MGM -110
9.10.26 Play #1 | #FIBA 🇭🇺
Hungary is coming off a three game stretch of relatively easy matchups, leading off with Nigeria before two undersized interiors in Korea and Japan. Now they face The US, with a sensational frontcourt defensive unit of Collier/Stewart/Boston/Reese. The US has only allowed one player to notch 15+ Pts against them and it was a reserve Czechian in their recent 40 point victory.
The frontcourt duo of Kiss and Juhasz have been thriving their last 3 games, and now are in for a tough day.
Show some love to our CFB man @QuentinLocks, with one hell of a week 1 start 🔥🔥
✅Braden Atkinson O29.5 P Attempts
✅Bryce Underwood 30+ Rushing Yards
✅Makhi Hughes O 14.5 Rush Attempts
✅Louis Brown O 3.5 Receptions
✅Ian Strong 60+ Receiving Yards
❌Zeon Chriss-Gremillion 30+ Rushing Yards
What a lovely +3.08U to kick off the season 👌
🔥GREAT SATURDAY OF FOOTBALL🤝
CFB Saturday Recap💰
✅Braden Atkinson O 29.5 Pass Attempts
✅Bryce Underwood 30+ Rushing Yards
✅Makhi Hughes O 14.5 Rush Attempts
✅Louis Brown O 3.5 Receptions
✅Ian Strong 60+ Receiving Yards
❌Zeon Chriss-Gremillion 30+ Rushing Yards
HUGE SATURDAY (+3.08U) to kick off the season🔥
Loved the reads…let’s run it back next week.
❤️IF YOU MADE SOME MONEY!
