@OhioF50

Ohio high school football rankings and predictions by College of Wooster math & data science professor @DrewPasteur

 Wooster, Ohio
fantastic50.net
Joined September 2011
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345Media
Following up on a conversation with a member of the media, I am sharing a bit more info about how my predictive team rankings work.馃У
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Double-digit seeds that are favored fantastic50.net/picks11.html Big schools R1 #10 Fairmont (at Grove City) R1 #11 Toledo St John (at Westland) R5 #10 Hoban (at VASJ) R8 #10 La Salle (at Talawanda) R8 #11 Trenton Edgewood (at C'bus West)
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Mid-sized schools R9 #10 Hawken (at Howland) R12 #10 Goshen (at Hughes) R13 #11 Poland (at Woodridge) R14 #12 Van Wert (at Otsego) R15 #11 Marion-Franklin (at East Liverpool) R18 #10 Coldwater (at Genoa) R18 #11 Port Clinton (at Margaretta) R19 #10 Piketon (at Meigs)
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Small schools R22 #11 Delta (at Seneca East) R22 #12 Patrick Henry (at W. Reserve) R24 #10 Covington (at Huntington) R24 #12 Versailles (at Portsmouth West) R27 #10 Lucas (at Beaver Eastern) R28 #12 Fort Recovery (at Waynesfield-Goshen)
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Before the playoffs kick off, let's take a look at the most improved teams across the state. 馃У
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Most improved mid-sized school teams Ottawa-Glandorf (10-0, R14 #1) 9 wins over prior 4 seasons North College Hill (9-0, R16 #4) outscored opponents 503-3 Zanesville (5-5, R11 out) ended 26-game losing streak Claymont (9-1, R15 #5) 1 winning season in prior 8 years
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2,813
Most improved small-school teams Shadyside (8-2, R27 #5) 11 wins over prior 4 seasons Danville (10-0, R27 #2) outscored opponents 474-58 Chippewa (6-4, R21 out) 5 wins over prior 4 seasons Madison-Plains (8-1, R24 #8) most wins in 50+ years, maybe ever
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OHSAA has a few long road trips in the early rounds, but nothing like these from Nebraska. However, I have a college friend who taught in Barrow, AK for a while, and "road trips" there require an airplane.
Nebraska HS Football
@NEBHSFBOct 24
Longest Bus Trips (One-Way) for the NSAA State Football Playoffs First Round #nebpreps
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Ohio Fantastic 50 retweeted
H. Tyler Seggerman@TylerSeggermanOct 26
Having covered Coldwater/Marion Local, I know how big 50-50 raffles at HS football games can get鈥hat took place at the Archbold/Liberty Center game adds another layer! The winner gave his money back, so $10,000 went to Pediatric ICU unit at Nationwide Children鈥檚 Hospital. Wow.
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Projected first-round performance, by seed: #5: 22-6, avg. +17 pts. (vs #12) #6: 20-8, +14 pts. (vs #11) #7: 19-9, +11 pts. (vs #10) #8: 16-12, +4 pts. (vs #9) Last year: #5: 25-3, +21 pts. #6: 19-9, +14 pts. #7: 21-7, +8 pts. #8: 21-7, +9 pts.
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Heaviest regional title favorites R27 Danville 96% R28 Marion Local 94% R19 Ironton 94% R22 Liberty Center 88% R8 Anderson 86% R24 St Henry 83% R16 London 82% R9 Glenville 81% R21 South Range 76%
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I am having technical issues this evening with my website hosting provider, so I am posting some key playoff-related content here.
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Small school first round picks, by region R21 playoffs #8 Brookfield (7-3) by 28 (97%) vs #9 Columbiana (8-2) #5 Mineral Ridge (9-1) by 23 (93%) vs #12 Wickliffe (8-2) #6 United (8-1) by 5 (63%) vs #11 Warren JFK (6-4) #7 Smithville (8-2) by 30 (98%) vs #10 Grand Valley (8-2)
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Region 27 playoffs #9 Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (7-3) by 17 (87%) at #8 Fisher Catholic (7-3) #5 Shadyside (8-2) by 26 (96%) vs #12 South Gallia (6-4) #6 Strasburg-Franklin (7-3) by 27 (96%) vs #11 Frontier (5-5) #10 Lucas (5-5) by 11 (77%) at #7 Eastern (Beaver) (7-3)
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Region 28 playoffs #8 Fort Loramie (5-5) by 32 (98%) vs #9 Tri-County North (6-4) #12 Fort Recovery (3-7) by 40 (99%) at #5 Waynesfield-Goshen (7-3) #6 Cincinnati Country Day (5-5) by 20 (91%) vs #11 Upper Scioto Valley (5-5) #7 New Bremen (5-5) by 49 (99%) vs #10 Ridgemont (3-7)
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Mid-sized school first round picks, by region Region 9 playoffs #8 Ursuline (6-4) by 24 (94%) vs #9 Lake Catholic (6-4) #5 Glenville (8-2) by 38 (99%) vs #12 Univ. School (6-4) #6 Gilmour (7-3) by 1 (53%) vs #11 Benedictine (5-4) #10 Hawken (7-3) by 3 (58%) at #7 Howland (8-2)
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Region 19 playoffs #9 Ridgewood (6-4) by 31 (98%) at #8 Fairland (7-3) #5 Wheelersburg (7-3) by 41 (99%) vs #12 Grove City Christian (5-5) #6 Worthington Christian (5-5) by 23 (93%) vs #11 Vinton County (6-4) #10 Piketon (6-4) by 4 (60%) at #7 Meigs (7-3)
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Region 20 playoffs #8 Arcanum (6-4) by 1 (53%) vs #9 Dayton Christian (7-3) #12 Preble Shawnee (7-3) by 1 (53%) at #5 Summit Country Day (5-4) #6 Bishop Fenwick (5-5) by 34 (99%) vs #11 Greeneview (5-4) #7 Carlisle (6-4) by 27 (96%) vs #10 Greenon (6-3)
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