Oli Mears (@OliMears) header
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Opinions on Economics, Politics, Statistics, and Science.

Joined June 2020
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We need to put the Olympics on the moon: It’s a great way to politically and culturally unify the world. It’s a great way to stress test population sustaining and infrastructure building technology outside of Earth. The moon is a great launching pad into deeper space.
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The ethical reason that more skilled labour should earn more money is because this creates an overall systemic effect of a better society. This is due to faster technological progress and higher total output per person due to more effective labour specialisation.
No hay ningún motivo ético para que un ingeniero gane más que un camarero. Estudiar más no te hace merecedor de un nivel de vida superior. Quizá haya motivos meramente prácticos: un soborno para que la gente estudie cosas que le aburren, pero serán profesionales mediocres.
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Imagine the present universe is a simulation that a future society simulated to see where the modern world came from. But this simulation itself progresses to the point of simulating a reality in the future. That future simulation then simulates the original past simulation.
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As in, we are inside the simulation that this universe eventually simulates in the future. A simulation that is inside the simulation it is itself simulating.
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Depression is recognised as a possible symptom for deficiency in each of these nutrients. Doctors don’t test for deficiencies before prescribing antidepressants. 16-20% of the UK are vitamin D deficient: gov.uk/government/news/new-r… 25% of the adults in the UK are iodine deficient: gov.uk/government/statistics… 12% of the UK are below the requirements for magnesium, 15% for iron, and 6% for zinc: cambridge.org/core/services/…
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I kinda want the future to be carbon neutral fossil fuels created by factories like this which just recycle it into oil to put in your car. There’s a finite amount of energy capacity on the planet and some of it is in the CO2 and H2O in the air.
JUST IN - Europe's largest "carbon capture facility," officially opens in the Netherlands, aiming to cut emissions by capturing and liquefying CO2, then transporting it to Norway, to store it 1.6 miles beneath the ​seabed.
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Oli Mears retweeted
OUTLAW ORGANOID COMPUTERS
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Entire segments of AI research are doing the equivalent of p-hacking and overfitting with these benchmarks.
We evaluated GPT-6 Astra on WANDR. It scored 0.682 at $11.98 per task, the highest score of any model we tested. GPT-6-Astra scored 13.5% higher than Fable 5.1 at 6.1% lower cost, and 27.0% higher than Opus 5 at 3.3% higher cost.
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It really seems that net-zero is a nonsense policy compared to producing as much green energy as humanly possible.
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Sam Altman is saying that in 6.5 years the total token use of 1 person (the highest user) will equal 150 times the current total global usage at OpenAI. How can people not think this is the attitude of a bubble?
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Finite useful resources become valuable, the infinite resources become cheap. What’s effectively infinite in the long run? Energy once we get solar and nuclear fully going. What’s finite and useful? Most metals. Extremely finite? Gold. Extremely useful? Silver.
Weird economics up on the agent-only runescape server - Low cost of labor makes most commodities abundant - Currency inflation means trading goods for goods, nobody really wants cash - Huge swarm contention as certain resources with limited respawn rate become valuable
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If we sold all the oil rights to the North Sea oil at ~$22 per barrel (with no taxation for extraction). We could get ~$200B and use it to build enough solar panels to meet the entire country’s electricity demands assuming a mere 35% economies of scale discount.
"Anyone who supports North Sea drilling is an extremist" @OliDugmore
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0.5% property tax to replace council tax and stamp duty. 1% LVT, and a new personal allowance which is not paying the first £3k-4k of taxes (all taxes, property tax, LVT, capital gains, income, etc). Get rid of NI. 25% income tax up to £50k, 40% up to £150k, 50% above £150k.
🚨 NEW: Andy Burnham is strongly considering replacing council tax and stamp duty with a 0.48% annual tax on a home's current value
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To clarify that’s get rid of employee NI, not employer NI. And the new personal allowance would replace the old one.
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AND: Reverse employer NI increase. Heavy tax refunds for investing in training as an individual or corporation. Capital gains rebates for improvements to buildings that increase total housing capacity.
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AND: Reverse employer NI increase. Heavy tax refunds for investing in training as an individual or corporation. Capital gains rebates for improvements to buildings that increase total housing capacity.
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My genuine conception of the fabric of reality is: ‘It's (plato's) caves all the way up’. As an alternative to ‘it's turtles all the way down’.
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The death penalty is horrific not least because it allows governments to frame and kill citizens.
Axel Rudakubana has been moved from prison to a psychiatric hospital after an assessment by psychologists. His incarceration will now cost more than £300,000 a year, compared to roughly £60,000 before the Guardian reports. In any fair society, Rudakubana would hang.
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Oli Mears retweeted
Replying to @PYeerk
The British problem with left and right is that the left believe that they have the monopoly on morality, and the right believe they have the monopoly on rationality. Neither is correct, and aligning yourself with either side makes you neither moral nor rational.
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If a company pays for external training for an employee at any accredited course for at least X hours per year. Then the employer should pay no national insurance tax for that employee.
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So funny that Milei basically just front loaded inflation so the MoM and YoY numbers looked better and people think he solved inflation. The YoY in November 2023 was 170.3%, with a CPI of 2.96k. 2.96k inflated at 170.3% per year till June 2026 is 11.7k. The 2026 June CPI is 12k.
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To be fair, if I wanted to buy Argentinian bonds I’d rather the inflation had previously been front loaded. Better real return for the same yield.
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