Step back to look at the big picture. Know the game you are playing.
Joined October 2022
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OnePosition retweeted
Equity put/call ratio 1.05 today, higher than Liberation Day.
Previous spikes above 1.0 happened close to near-term lows. Is this time different?
OnePosition retweeted
The worst possible combination is a Republican President and a Democratic Congress. Futures seem to agree so far.
OnePosition retweeted
After a 15% rally in April/May, the S&P 500 has simply consolidated those gains for nearly five months.
The 20-week MA has caught up and now is a nice time for the primary trend (a bull market) to continue.
OnePosition retweeted
Something has to give, as October 28th is historically the best day of the year.
This day falls on this Wednesday and that is also a Fed meeting. Under Kevin Warsh we've seen the S&P 500 fall 1.21% in June, 1.52% in July, and 0.45% in September.
Which history will repeat?
OnePosition retweeted
"It's not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters."
- Epictetus
OnePosition retweeted
Corporate America will forgive incompetence before it forgives you for not laughing at the manager’s jokes.
OnePosition retweeted
We noted the positive divergence in >20-day MA at the start of the week.
Nice broad-based rally this week.
OnePosition retweeted
👀
I just found the CRAZIEST market statistic
Use this. It’s the roadmap to get rich.
19 FOR 19
Since 1950, the S&P 500 $SPY has been higher 12 months after EVERY midterm year.
That’s a 100% WIN RATE
19 midterms.
19 times higher.
Average gain: ~15%.
21 FOR 21
Since 1942, EVERY November-through-June period following a midterm has been positive.
21 straight.
Average gain: +16.6%.
YEAR 3 = HISTORICALLY THE STRONGEST
The year after midterms has historically been the strongest year of the 4-year presidential cycle.
Average gain since 1950: ~18%.
So remember:
Market is
19/19 after midterm year
21/21 Positive returns
Year 3 = historically the strongest.
Now you know when to go heavy into the market again.
OnePosition retweeted
Vivaldi's “Winter,” visualized in a fascinating way, so that the auditory experience is even more intense; one can literally “see” the music, so to speak
OnePosition retweeted
This could be the fifth consecutive week without a 1% gain or loss for the week for the S&P 500.
May 2023 last time we saw that. The old saying not to short a dull market comes to mind.
OnePosition retweeted
Can something as obscure as a 30-year cycle in commodities really matter? Decide for yourself. But, um, so far, so good. @sentimentrader
OnePosition retweeted
September bears watching. Midterm years often start stronger than longer-term September patterns, but that advantage fades sharply after midmonth. By the end of September, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 losses have historically deepened to around –1.6% to –1.8%. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/8…
