Elections, African Politics, Democracy and a general curiosity about how the world works, or doesn't. Unresponsive to anyone who follows more than is followed.
Johannesburg
Joined November 2011
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Look who is swimming in the US foreign policy river - while everyone is in denial about their responsibility for agoa
Paul Graham retweeted
Print is the resilient information substrate we need!
I just voted in Westchester NY and as I dumped my ballot into an orange bag, it struck me even as a guy who makes my living from
Technology, that maybe, just maybe, the 1980s style “lever-pulling machines” and getting all votes counted that night is vastly superior to any electronic /software solution from 2026! #ElectionDay
Parties and candidates in the #LGE2026 who seem not to have money for posters, radio spots, dedicated social media accounts, fliers or personal appearances really should not be taking up anyone's time. You can't expect the @IECSouthAfrica ballot papers to be a PSA.
Paul Graham retweeted
I've been going through the DTIC response to Washington's AGOA decision, and honestly, some of these figures put the whole debate into perspective.
Did you know that in 2025, approximately 89% of South African exports to the US entered under ordinary WTO Most-Favoured-Nation terms? Only about 10% entered under AGOA, valued at roughly $1.7 billion, down from $4 billion in 2024.
And here's what makes this interesting: AGOA exports represented just 1% of South Africa's total global exports. 😒
Now, I'm not suggesting that losing AGOA won't hurt, particularly for affected farmers, manufacturers and workers. But can we please stop talking as though South Africa's entire economy is going to collapse on 1 January 2027? 😭
We're talking about a serious challenge for certain industries, not the end of the Republic!
And while we're discussing economic dependence, can we also talk about what America gets from its relationship with South Africa? According to the DTIC, South Africa supplies 12 of the 50 minerals the US considers critical to its industries. The department also says we supply approximately 70% of certain US medical isotopes used in cancer treatment. Then there are the more than 600 American companies operating in South Africa, supporting approximately 134,600 local jobs.
So this idea that AGOA is some charitable favour Washington bestows upon helpless South Africans is rather amusing. 😂
Trade relationships involve mutual interests, darlings. America has economic interests here too! 💅
But something else in the DTIC statement caught my attention. Minister Parks Tau says South Africa spent months negotiating with Washington, offering additional concessions while trying to respect our biosecurity requirements, WTO obligations and constitutional responsibilities.
Yet, according to the department, the US subsequently introduced new issues that hadn't formed part of the negotiations that began in 2025.👀👀👀👀👀
And this is where the DTIC's Butterfly Strategy becomes interesting. South Africa is pursuing additional export opportunities across the African Continental Free Trade Area, SADC, India, the EU, UK, ASEAN, MERCOSUR and China. Which is exactly what economic diversification should look like.
Not abandoning America. Not becoming dependent on China. Not imagining BRICS will magically solve every economic problem.
But building relationships across multiple markets so that no single trading partner has disproportionate influence over our economic future.
Paul Graham retweeted
This is every tariff the United States has stacked onto South African goods.
The broad 30% tariff from 2025 that the US Supreme Court threw out, and the temporary 10% charge that expired in July, are already dead.
South Africa now faces a 12.5% “forced labour” tariff on manufactured and processed exports such as wine, chemicals and machinery. The heavier tariffs are 25% on cars and parts and up to 50% on steel and aluminium.
Underneath is AGOA, which lets qualifying goods skip Most Favoured Nation duties. It briefly lapsed between September 2025 and February 2026, was restored and extended to the end of 2028. Staying in it is possible but not guaranteed, as Washington reviews eligibility yearly and the next decision is due today.
Most damage comes from the car and metal tariffs, unrelated to AGOA, so losing AGOA would add only a smaller tax on a narrower slice of exports. Still far less than what was faced late last year.
Paul Graham retweeted
Trump removes South Africa from a duty-free trade agreement because of a fake "genocide" against white South Africans that only he can see and because South Africa accurately charged Israel with a real genocide in Gaza before the Int'l Court of Justice. trib.al/xSE4rbX
Much to blame the ANC government for, but the blame for being excluded from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is entirely at the foot of the conservative Afrikaner movement - Solidarity, Afriforum and their friends - and an ideological White House.
South Africa is of all African states the most qualified for AGOA - but the White House has decided to be punitive, and nothing we do can change that.
This is the letter US President Donald Trump sent to President Cyril Ramaphosa announcing the termination of South Africa’s AGOA eligibility.
Here's the crux: "I am taking this step because I have determined that the Government of South Africa has not established, or is not making continual progress toward establishing, a system to combat corruption and bribery or the elimination of barriers to United States trade and investment, as required by section 104 of AGOA. In addition, certain actions by the Government of South Africa on matters of international security and its relations and cooperation with governments of concern to the United States risk undermining United States national security and foreign policy."
Paul Graham retweeted
"Successive US administrations have used AGOA eligibility as a stick to discipline African governments. It's unclear if this works, and very clear it imposes big costs on African economies."
cgdev.org/blog/nine-ideas-im…
It is regrettable that South African policies led to the termination of AGOA for South Africa. This was a predictable and preventable outcome resulting from the rejection by South Africa's government of real concerns raised by the U.S. Government. I remain hopeful that we can find a path forward to address our larger bilateral concerns, but the South African government must understand the gravity of the situation. We know that if America succeeds, so too will South Africa. This is the partnership I will continue to pursue as expeditiously as possible.
ustr.gov/about/policy-office…
Got my first sight of the #LGE2026 ballot paper. We really need to stop with these duvet size pieces of paper. And that means making it more costly to enter and to fail to win support.
And your queue is no indicator of turnout, btw.
Voter turnout will be a critical component of this election, and yet the more I look at turnout stats, the more questions I have.
Here is a view of LGE and NPE turnout patterns.
2021 was in Covid, and I feel that we just don't know how this year looks.
claude.ai/artifact/VgqDwB7Ra…
Paul Graham retweeted
I just special voted in JHB. It's a huge double-sided ballot. Takes a while navigate. Suggestions:
1) Parties should definitely educate voters about where they are on the ballot
2) Tell friends where to look for your party of choice-for max speed. Turnout will be high. Vote fast
Paul Graham retweeted
📢 The IEC Chief Electoral Officer, Sy Mamabolo, will brief the media on readiness for the 2–3 November special votes.
Accredited media are also invited to a results system training session.
📅Sunday, 1 November 2026, 16h00
📍Media Overflow Centre, National ROC
#WozaLGE2026
bbc.com/news/articles/cmq5np… These fortress bureaucracies are getting out of hand.
Paul Graham retweeted
One concerning thing I've heard people say is: 'Party X always wins this ward, so it doesn't matter if I go vote'
THIS IS WRONG.
Every single vote (ward and PR) gets put into the overal seat % calculation. So EVERY VOTE matters in EVERY WARD. TURN OUT. GO VOTE ON WEDNESDAY!
This account either believes in clickbait or reverse psychology; it can't just be cluelessness about the game.
Paul Graham retweeted
Test cricket is the greatest format this game has ever had, and Australia touring South Africa is one of the greatest spectacles going.
We need documentaries. We need the hype. We need the discussion, the arguments, the endless talk. More than the Ashes gets. More than the BGT gets. And if not more than those, then this series absolutely deserves to sit in the same bracket.
The contest is simply fairer when Australia come to South Africa. It feels like the cricket, the broadcast, all of it, is on point in a way it isn't everywhere else.
I love it. I love this.
