Richard Duncan

FREE VIDEO: Deficits, Bubbles, China, Defense, and AI — A Framework for Understanding the World Today Deficits, asset bubbles, China’s rise, the defense spending boom, and the AI arms race may appear to be separate developments. I believe they are all connected. In this new Macro Watch video, I bring together the major themes I’ve examined during 2026 and provide a framework for understanding how and why the world is changing. The video also explains why artificial intelligence may now be pushing Creditism toward a new economic system that I call Cognitism. For the first time, I’m making this video free for everyone to watch. If you find this video useful, please repost it and help me share it with a wider audience. #AI #China #NationalSecurity

Could the next financial crisis begin with artificial intelligence? Trillions are being committed. #AI stocks are wobbling. The financing risks are enormous. The latest two Macro Watch videos explore what could go wrong. Read more: richardduncaneconomics.com/w… #Anthropic

America is making a $10 trillion bet on AI. But what happens if the financing breaks down before the profits arrive? The two latest Macro Watch videos examine the extraordinary investment boom and what could bring it crashing down. Read: richardduncaneconomics.com/w… #Anthropic

Is the $10 trillion AI bubble beginning to burst? AI-related stocks are under pressure. Investors are getting nervous. Doubts are spreading. The two latest Macro Watch videos explain the enormous risks now confronting investors. Read more: richardduncaneconomics.com/a… #Anthropic

The AI boom may be more fragile than investors realize. What happens if Anthropic can't raise the capital it needs? Could OpenAI be next? The stakes could hardly be higher. Watch the latest Macro Watch video: richardduncaneconomics.com/w… #Anthropic #OpenAI #AI

Anthropic's IPO could be one of the most consequential financial events of this decade. If it fails, the fallout could spread through the entire AI ecosystem, threatening hundreds of billions in investment. Macro Watch. Read more: richardduncaneconomics.com/w… #Anthropic

What if Anthropic's IPO fails? The consequences could be catastrophic. A stock market crash. An AI investment collapse. A severe recession. The latest Macro Watch video explores what's at stake. Read more: richardduncaneconomics.com/w… #Anthropic

What if winning the AI race matters more than making a profit? If Washington views Chinese AI dominance as a national security threat, conventional financial considerations could become secondary. That could change everything. Read more on Macro Watch: richardduncaneconomics.com/a…

Railroads, electrification and the internet transformed the world—but investors lost fortunes when too much money poured in. Could AI follow the same path? My new Macro Watch video examines the risks behind America's $10 trillion AI bet. Watch: richardduncaneconomics.com/a…

America could invest $10.3 TRILLION in AI infrastructure by 2032—dwarfing previous investment booms. But will AI generate enough profits to justify the spending? The new Macro Watch video examines the enormous stakes. Watch here: richardduncaneconomics.com/a… #AI #Nvidia

What happens if long-term Treasury yields keep climbing toward 7%? The new Macro Watch video explains why that risk is rising—and why the consequences for stocks, bonds and household wealth could be severe: richardduncaneconomics.com/t… #Crash #Inflation #AI

The Road To 7% Yields and A Stock Market Crash. AI, defense spending and reindustrialization are creating powerful new inflation pressures. The new Macro Watch video looks at what this could mean for markets and wealth: richardduncaneconomics.com/t… #Inflation #AI

The 10-year Treasury yield has spiked above 5.2%. AI investment, military spending and reindustrialization could push it toward 7%—and trigger a stock market crash. The new Macro Watch video explains why: richardduncaneconomics.com/t… #BondYields #AI

The Fed raised rates this week—but there’s more to the story. With long-term Treasury yields near levels not seen since 2007, the Fed had to convince the bond market it was serious about inflation. This Macro Watch video explains what could come next: richardduncaneconomics.com/t…

The Fed can raise interest rates. But it can’t manufacture oil or diesel. With inflation rising, diesel above $6 and the economy still strong, the #Fed faces an increasingly difficult dilemma. The latest Macro Watch video explains why. Watch it now: richardduncaneconomics.com/t…

The Fed Had To Raise Interest Rates To Stop Interest Rates From Rising. It sounds like a contradiction. It isn’t. The new Macro Watch video explains why the Fed was trapped—and why this week’s rate hike may only be the beginning. Learn more: richardduncaneconomics.com/t… #FOMC

Macro Watch Briefing — September 17 Something unusual is happening: • The Fed just raised rates. • The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5%. • Oil remains above $100. • Yet GDPNow just jumped to 5.1% growth. Meanwhile, shortages of missile interceptors highlight the enormous investment needed to rebuild Western defense capacity. Bottom Line: AI, defense and federal borrowing are creating extraordinary demand for capital. How high must rates go before the economy finally slows? Disclosure: Prepared with AI assistance, reviewed and edited by Richard Duncan.

Macro Watch Briefing — September 16 A big macro day: • The Fed decides today, with a rate hike expected as the 10-year Treasury yield hovers near 5%. • Oil remains above $100, while the global diesel shortage continues to threaten inflation. • The US and Germany have agreed to deepen defense-industrial cooperation and expand production capacity. • German defense spending is set to surge from €108 billion in 2026 to nearly €154 billion by 2028. Macro Watch Bottom Line: AI, defense and government borrowing are creating enormous demand for capital—just as interest rates and energy costs surge. Something has to give. Disclosure: Prepared with AI assistance, reviewed and edited by Richard Duncan.

Macro Watch Briefing — September 15 Something has to give. The US economy remains remarkably strong, but the 10-year Treasury yield has hit 5%, oil remains above $100, and the Fed appears poised to raise rates. Meanwhile, China’s domestic economy is weakening sharply. Retail sales grew just 0.4% in August and fixed investment fell 7.2%, even as Chinese exports continue to surge. And the enormous AI investment boom remains a major engine of US growth—but one increasingly worth watching as concerns about the pace of AI development intensify. Macro Watch Bottom Line: 5% Treasury yields + $100 oil could become a powerful brake on credit, investment and growth. So far, the US economy hasn’t blinked. Disclosure: Prepared with AI assistance, reviewed and edited by Richard Duncan.

Macro Watch Briefing — Sept. 13 • US Credit System: The Fed’s new Z.1 report shows total US debt securities + loans outstanding reached $120.4 trillion in Q2 2026. That’s: +$2.2T in one quarter. +$7.3T in one year. +$40.4T since the end of 2019. Total credit-market debt has increased by roughly 51% since the eve of the pandemic. • Largest Components: Federal government debt securities outstanding were about $34.9T in Q2 (this is the Z.1 debt-securities measure, not total gross federal debt). Financial-sector debt was $27.7T, business debt $24.0T, and household debt $21.4T. Macro Watch implication: Creditism remains alive and well. The US economy is still operating on an enormous and expanding stock of debt. • Geopolitics: Energy risk worsened again over the weekend as pressure increased around both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, two of the world’s most important shipping chokepoints. Macro Watch Bottom Line: The US credit system has expanded enormously since 2019—and it is still growing. That helps explain the economy’s resilience, but it also makes the system increasingly sensitive to high interest rates and geopolitical shocks. Disclosure: AI was used to assist in compiling this briefing.

US household net worth—i.e., wealth—increased by $12.8 trillion in Q2 2026 alone, an amount equivalent to roughly 40% of the entire US government debt held by the public. Macro Watch Briefing — Sept. 12 • America's Wealth: The Fed's new Z.1 report shows household net worth reached a record $195.9 trillion, up $20.6 trillion in just one year. Since the post-financial-crisis low in Q1 2009, household wealth has increased by an extraordinary $136.6 trillion—more than four times today's $32.4 trillion of federal debt held by the public. For perspective, even if $32.4 trillion were somehow raised from accumulated wealth to retire all government debt held by the public, American household wealth would still be approximately $104 trillion greater than at the 2009 low. That doesn't mean such a policy should be adopted. But these numbers provide important perspective on America's fiscal position and the range of policy options available. • Treasuries: The 10-year yield briefly reached 4.98%, while the 30-year hit 5.38%, its highest since 2007. • Inflation: One-year consumer inflation expectations jumped from 4.0% to 4.6%. Markets now see roughly an 80% probability of a Fed hike next week. • AI & Credit: Oracle spent $28.5 billion on capex in just three months. AI is rapidly becoming not only a technology and investment story, but a major credit story. • US Economy: GDP growth remains strong and bank credit continues expanding, while S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow roughly 31.5% in 2026. Macro Watch Bottom Line: America's government is heavily indebted—but America's private sector is extraordinarily wealthy. The new Fed data provide important perspective on both the scale of the fiscal challenge and the resources potentially available to address it. Learn more from Macro Watch: richardduncaneconomics.com/ Disclosure: AI was used to assist in compiling this briefing.