phiunit

NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem. Please see our full report and disclosures now available on our website, link in bio.

Protests and riots in Europe. Gambling in the US. These have a lot in common. Quick post about The World After Capital and the accelerating transition we are in now continuations.com/the-world-…

1) Trying again. 
TLDR: Everyone can win. Open-source, frontier labs, infrastructure, applications and most importantly the American people.   I understand all of the jitters about Anthropic losing share, real rates, spreads and second derivatives. Still think the most likely future outcome is a hybrid, multi-model future where almost everyone wins, open-weight tokens are likely the overwhelming majority of tokens, the dominant frontier model companies still do well albeit perhaps not the outcome that seemed possible in May and AI infrastructure/applications benefit immensely from the increased fragmentation, competition and lower margins at the model layer.   Lower margins at the model layer mechanically drive higher compute demand as long as someone is willing to pay for the training. And Jensen is obviously willing to be the “trainer of last resort.” As below-market compute contracts signed in 24/25 roll-off and reprice higher, cloud and neocloud revenue should continue to accelerate which will help address financing fears; I think we may be near peak external financing for this buildout. Noteworthy that using data from 3Fourteen Research, B200 clusters will generate a 37% IRR *if* their rental price declines 40% per year. Prices are still going up, but that IRR math is too ridiculous to print. 37% IRRs available at scale should get funded. Re: this weekends controversy about MOUs, Anthropic’s $413 billion of real contractual commitments sounds scary. Reality is that it works out to roughly $31 billion of annual cloud spend, which is easily internally financed given their reported ARR, and $161 billion of spend at Broadcom which will be financed by Broadcom and private credit. Continue to believe fragmentation at the model layer is the best outcome for ordinary Americans and humans everywhere. As I have said before, do not trust any 5-20 individuals to make the best possible decisions about the direction of this technology. I want as many AIs as possible to maximize the odds that they encompass the diversity of human values across the world and richness of human variation. And I want an AI that shares my own personal values. Safety, freedom and the maximization of human agency through democratization, distribution and diffusion vs. centralization. History has spoken on the dangers of the latter path. Finally, from my perspective anything that slows this buildout down is net positive over the long-term as the biggest risk and worst outcome is an *actual* overbuild. We are structurally short watts, wafers and increasingly capital. That is all good. God forbid we were still in ZIRP, TSM ramped capex to 3x their current plan and we weren’t short turbine blades: there would almost certainly be an overbuild and a bubble. That would be terrible. Slower and smoother for longer is better both for investors and for the world. A terrible cyber event is the most plausible near term bear case IMHO, but AI cyberdefense ramping quickly and I was happy to hear Sholto say that cyber probably becomes defense dominant in the near future.   Longer, threaded version follows:

My girlfriend has thousands of TikTok’s saved- day trips, vacation ideas, restaurants, gifts, etc. I couldn’t keep track of it. Now she texts the videos to Hermes, it watches them + stores in a vault, I text the agent to pull from her lists and plan. Magic.

GPT‑6 wanted to beat ExploitGym so badly that it discovered a zero day in OpenAI’s package registry proxy, hacked its way out of an isolated evaluation environment, escalated privileges until it reached the open internet, then chained stolen credentials and more zero days into remote code execution on Hugging Face’s production servers to pull the answers directly from its database 😭 Absolutely fucking insane

You basically need to be unemployed to keep up with all this AI stuff.

Helium is dead, long live Helium! Andrew Yang (of all people) acquired Helium Mobile. The acquisition is DePIN’s most surprising and arguably most significant development this year. What does it mean and what are the implications? 1. HNT’s TAM has meaningfully declined. As a result HNT has lower upside along with slower growth potential. No Helium Mobile MVNO revenue token burn potential means token holders can’t hope to benefit from this revenue line like they could in H2 2025. 2. Conversely HNT’s value accrual mechanics are now solidified solely through network hotspot usage, reducing underwriting uncertainty and providing a stable base for network growth. The network makes money if carriers use the hotspots - this dynamic is purer and less confusing that mixing in carrier offload revenue. 3. The main KPI to track is carrier offload usage growth which is tied to Helium supply side expansion in high value areas. If you buy Helium you’re betting it can actually expand mobile coverage more efficiently than centralized methods. This presents a far different investment profile than the MVNO business line. 4. Token holders across crypto will likely demand equity rights in tokens claiming that associated businesses will accrue their revenue to the native token. Helium’s flip flop between 100% revenue burns of helium mobile revenue to nothing within 6 months proves that investors can’t have confidence in verbal promises of value accrual. All in all - the acquisition represents a return to DePIN roots and reveals how difficult it is for teams to run bun a DePIN and a semi affiliated derivative business. With the focus purely on growing carrier offload the network is far simpler and easier to understand which might make investing in HNT easier even if the TAM has shrunk. I expect that we’ll see a medium term trend across the market towards simplicity rather than complexity in these difficult crypto market conditions where sophisticated derivative business will be harder to fund. The news is disappointing overall but it also paints the way forward for what DePINs should focus on. A new chapter has opened in the history of this admirably ambitious space.

main reason why u should rely less on ai to write for u that writing is thinking. when u skip the mental struggle of writing by letting someone else (ai) do it for u, u become dumber over time.