Asymmetric bets, mom & value, preferably uncorrelated to the major markets, mostly small cap or even smaller
Joined May 2022
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Current allocation:
30% gold via miners and tiny bit of silver
15% long volatility via market makers $FLOW, $virt and $abca.pa
55% global diversified microcaps
>30% short cash
Rules of thumb so far meaning sometimes I wait to rebalance when I want to be overweight certain assets.
Litigation finance didn't provide any diversification benefit. Still holding $BCHT and $BUR but it doesn't get its own fixed allocation bucket no more.
Ngl but this alphabet feels like somebody was intentionally trying to f... with your brain...
This is how the inventor Boris explains it:
"Let’s take B and pronounce it v.
We'll take the P and pronounce it like r. Americans will never be able to decipher this. (insert evil Russian laugh) Then we'll do H like n, C like s, x like kh and h upside down is ch. A € backwards is an e and a backwards r is ya. Now tell me comrades did I just invent the most cryptographic language ever?"
$CLMT Keeping it as my largest position. Earnings were a little lower than what OSG predicted but much higher than market estimates. Correlation with $CRAK should be decrasing as MRL scales further up.
Here's what's also going to help us:
PEAD: the post earnings announcement drift discovered in the 60s and still significant nowadays. An earnings surprise tends to lift up the stock price over weeks or even months. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post%E…
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$spcb sells ankle monitors that are not available online. Maybe something to think about.
AI chips loose like 90% of value a year and a plane about 5%.
My guess is that low short term demand is an existential threat to neos while long term contracts make aircraft leasing a more stable business. Any other takes on this? xitter.gq/blondesnmoney/status/2…
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No shame in stepping aside and waiting until the air clears unless you you want to end up like this 👇
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$clmt Me looking at the numbers and at the stock price being flat.
News are getting weirder and weirder these days...
Creators in their sixties, seventies, and eighties have flooded adult platforms as the demand for mature content has skyrocketed, with some turning to online sex work as a retirement lifeline. buff.ly/xr0Wcrd
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BTW this strategy worked. 👇
Stock opened 5% lower. Who knows what price I would have gotten maybe 7% lower? It's a way to protect yourself when you feel like you getting smashed. Only works with small size.
A nice way to hedge a position but you need a little luck as well:
Say you have a position while there's a storm outside eg $TNZ.TO is suffering from a drop in natgas prices and it reports today. I checked earnings with gpt and it said that analysts were expecting a better guidance for next year. AI could be wrong but due to the market environment the stock dropped and could be dropping much more today. What to do?
You check were else it trades.
Sometimes the foreign market hasn't priced in the news yet. So I managed to go short in Frankfurt right at the open at yesterday's closing price. You gain a little time that way until you can see more clearly
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"A volatility spike worse than March 2020!" 🤯
BREAKING: The Volatility Index, $VIX, surges over +70% on the day, on track for its biggest daily gain since February 2018.
Not even March 2020 saw a daily jump in volatility like we are seeing now.
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A nice way to hedge a position but you need a little luck as well:
Say you have a position while there's a storm outside eg $TNZ.TO is suffering from a drop in natgas prices and it reports today. I checked earnings with gpt and it said that analysts were expecting a better guidance for next year. AI could be wrong but due to the market environment the stock dropped and could be dropping much more today. What to do?
You check were else it trades.
Sometimes the foreign market hasn't priced in the news yet. So I managed to go short in Frankfurt right at the open at yesterday's closing price. You gain a little time that way until you can see more clearly
Third largest refinery in Russia
Drones attacked the Ryazan oil refinery: at least six hits were recorded, and a large-scale fire broke out #oott unn.ua/en/amp/drones-attacke…
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This is Blaamberg news bringing you the latest what mainstream media doesn't dare to report.
-> 5 days ago oil was around $104 and currently at $87. A huge amount of oil was discovered in the ballots and that's the true reason the price is down.
-> refineries are dropping hard as well and again the mainstream media doesn't dare to tell the truth. Hillary Clinton brokered peace between Ukraine and Russia tonight and a few hours later she ended the Iran war by accepting the seven conditions. Iran was so surprised that they instantly opened the strait and that's why the gas price will come further down.
Blaamberg news got its sources everywhere and can always explain the fundamentals behind the price action. 💪
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$su.to fantastic quarter, I gave up when the strait was supposed to open for the hundredth time. "company net debt $1.75B, down from $7.1B a year ago" - > of course it's down as well today 🤡
$SU.TO — Suncor Energy | Q3 2026 Results
Canada's integrated oil sands giant: bitumen mining and in-situ, upgrading, refining and the petro-canada retail network.
📊 Q3 Highlights:
• Revenue (net of royalties): $18.9B (vs $12.6B)
• Adjusted funds from operations: $6.7B, a record ($5.75/share vs $3.16)
• Adjusted operating earnings: $4.6B (vs $1.8B)
• Net earnings: $3.8B, $3.27/share (vs $1.6B), after a $1.08B non-cash impairment
• Operating cash flow: $6.2B (vs $3.8B)
• Free funds flow: $5.2B
• Cash: $8.0B | Total debt: $9.8B excl. leases (company net debt $1.75B, down from $7.1B a year ago)
🛢️ Operations:
• Upstream production: 852,500 bbl/d (vs 870,000), syncrude maintenance weighed
• Record q3 firebag production and record bitumen transfers
• Refinery throughput: 487,700 bbl/d, 95% utilization
• Record q3 refined product sales: 677,000 bbl/d
💰 Shareholder Returns:
• $2.0B+ returned in Q3: ~$1.4B buybacks + ~$700M dividends
• Dividend raised 10% to $0.66/quarter
• Monthly buybacks increased 50% to $750M
Auncor is firing on all cylinders: integration let it capture strong pricing upstream while keeping refineries full, and the result was record cash flow. net debt is now close to the floor, so nearly every extra dollar is going back to shareholders. the impairment and lower syncrude volumes are worth watching, but the cash machine is the story.
Full analysis:
investorlens.io/stocks/SU.TO
#TSX #CanadianStocks #Energy #OilSands #Dividends #Buybacks
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