The world’s sharpest sportsbook | 19+ gamble responsibly | @PinnacleHelp for queries | Gambling problem? Visit https://xitter.cf/t.co/MZmHMqhnkW
Joined October 2012
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Some line movements to note since Monday:
Steelers -2.5 👉 -3.5
Texans -9.5 👉 -10.5
Vikings -5.5 👉 -6.5
Lions -3 👉 -3.5
Rams -5.5 👉 -3.5
NFL Week 7 (so far) @ Pinnacle:
Bears -3 vs Patriots | O/U 50.5
Steelers -2.5 @ Saints | O/U 44 — Paris
Texans -9.5 vs Giants | O/U 43.5
Panthers -3.5 vs Buccaneers | O/U 45
Browns -1.5 @ Titans | O/U 38
Jets -5.5 vs Dolphins | O/U 39.5
Vikings -5.5 vs Colts | O/U 41.5
Bengals @ Ravens NL
49ers @ Falcons NL
Broncos -4 @ Cardinals | O/U 44
Lions -3 vs Packers | O/U 53
Rams -5.5 @ Raiders | O/U 47.5
Seahawks -1.5 vs Chiefs | O/U 42
Cowboys -4.5 @ Eagles | O/U 44.5
Bye: Bills, Jaguars, Chargers & Commanders
How much is a missing player really worth, and has the market adjusted accordingly?
From Premier League injuries to El Clásico, @GarethWheeler and @JAKEOZZ examine how team news can change the value of a bet.
Pinnacle FC Ep. 121 👇
pinnacle.com/betting-resourc…
El Clásico has a history of goals, and the market knows it.
So when the total surpasses 4, where's the value?
@JAKEOZZ and @GarethWheeler discuss on Pinnacle FC. 🗣️⚽️
One of these teams will host a home playoff game in January:
▪️Cowboys are 2-4
▪️Giants are 3-2-1
▪️Commanders are 1-4-1
▪️Eagles are 2-4
How can two bets with a 2% edge turn into a 47% edge?
The answer lies in one of sports betting's most interesting strategies: middling.
Here's how the math works w/ @DoctorRazzWSOP 🧵
And here's where odds really matter.
At -110, the example produces a 47% edge.
Improve both prices to roughly -106, and the calculated edge rises above 150%.
A few cents of price improvement can make a huge difference when the downside is small.
The bigger lesson?
Finding value isn't just about maximizing potential returns; it's also about managing how much you risk to earn them.
Middling opportunities with an edge on both sides are rare, but the math can be powerful.
Read it all here 👇
pinnacle.ca/betting-resource…
Pinnacle retweeted
Many think the first round brings more upsets, so favs do worse and dogs better. I thought so too.
But the market prices it. And goes too far.
First round: favs -1.7%, dogs -5.9%
From round 2: favs -3.8%, dogs 0.0%
All in my new @Pinnacle article:
pinnacle.com/betting-resourc…
Bears stock continues to rise. 🐻
Now the 4th-best odds to win the NFC (+720) and the 8th-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+1500).
19,000+ ATP matches worth of data, favorites vs. underdogs.
Which offers better betting value?
Discard the narratives and dive into the numbers with @nishikoripicks 🎾👇
pinnacle.com/betting-resourc…
Injuries are increasing across European Soccer, but are the markets reacting accordingly?
With fixture congestion taking its toll, @GarethWheeler and @JAKEOZZ examine how squad availability, fatigue, and uncertain lineups can create new edges. ⚽️🗣️👇
youtu.be/G_mK5rmHglg