Our firm's portfolio comprises multiyear long-side only investments and a nascent trading arm.
Joined October 2024
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We have closed our #MCD position for a 36% gain, and will await the earnings to decide if we will continue.
Puts are getting almost as popular as calls and that's so bearish it's getting bullish. Technical traders are looking to play the rejection here.
#ROKU had an excellent 3Q:
• Rev: $1.50b, +24% YoY, vs $1.41b expected: a 6.2% beat
• EPS / Profit: GAAP $1.20 per share, vs $0.55 expected - beat by 109%. Net income $183.3m vs $24.8m YOY, +639%
• Operating income: $164.1m vs $9.5m YOY
• Gross profit: $648.5m, +24%
Our #Grab sold puts are now ITM post earnings - a solid quarter.
Rev: Q3 2026 rev: +27% YoY to $1.1b, topping market expectations.
Adj. EBITDA: +73% YoY to record $237m.
All 3 operating segments achieved positive adj. EBITDA for 1st time.
Raised FY 2026 Guidance.
Daiwa has lifted #WuxiApptec to HKD232 after its blowout earnings. Daiwa pointed out the significant acceleration in backlog growth in the third quarter, which rose 36.4% year on year, outpacing the 25.2% year-on-year increase in the first half.
Revision ranking for the current 12-month targets for #WuxiApptec is:
1. CLSA - HKD262
2. UBS - HKD255.9
3. Goldman and others in the 240s
**CLSA's note also shows even higher longer-term forecasts in the etnet database (e.g. HK$300 for 2028)
Follow the money..
What our financial model says #WuxiApptec should be at, from yesterday's blowout earnings:
Rev: RMB12.08B (+84.8% YoY)
Guidance: 43.5-44B rev for 2026, continuing-ops growth 40-42%
Backlog: RMB59.88B (+41.2%) — this is 1.35x full year revenue already sold
Using FCF Yield:
FCF guidance midpoint 15B on 430B mkt cap = 3.5% FCF yield today.
If #WuxiApptec trades to a normal 2% FCF yield for a 40% grower (like global peers), valuation = 15B / 0.02 = 750B => ∼RMB248
At the base projection based off the latest earnings, we are looking at a fair value of HKD322 for #WuxiApptec for the short term. The market is underpricing it by a huge gap.
Those who remain long or have initiated new positions are poised to enjoy lots of room to the upside.
Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on #WuxiApptec with a 12-month target price of HK$242.6.
The upside on the business is huge. As a firm, we expect a multi-year run, given the acceleration of molecules being pushed into the company’s pipeline due to AI -advancements.
What #WuxiApptec’s Q1-Q3 2026 actually shows — winning at R
• 314 molecules converted from R to D in 9M 2026 - that's internal conversion.
• 1,089 new molecules added to small molecule D&M pipeline in 9M, bringing total to 3,863 molecules — new high.
3. Moat: #1 domestic CXO scale, integrated CRDMO, engineer dividend. Competitors can win a development project; WuXi wins at research when the molecule is just an idea.
To track whether they keep winning top of funnel: watch 2 metrics every Q:
• New molecules added to D&M (>250/qtr is strong)
• R->D conversions (>100/qtr) + commercial count >100
Q3 checked all three boxes — that's why they could raise guidance 4th time in 16 months and pull Changzhou site forward.
We are long #WuxiApptec