12-4 last week in the NFL and 1-0 to start the week with a W on Thursday.
#sportsbetting #betting
PMill AI · Last 3 days · NFL
1-0 (100.0%) pmill.ai/share/pmill-record/…
PMILL Betting Models Week in Review
What to be excited about -
MLB underdogs went 4-0, and the priced MLB picks were 9-1.
NFL spreads went 11-2. It was a good week for underdogs league-wide, but we also beat the closing line 7 times and lost to it only twice.
Across every sport we beat the closing line on 71 picks and lost to it on 36. That's the best early sign the model has a real edge.
Club soccer went 27-17.
What's we will fix -
NHL (−8.3u): every pick was a preseason game, priced off last season's stats. Most were +1.5 puck lines at −200 to −270. Those went 6-4 and still lost money, and the cheaper puck lines went 0-5.
Soccer: all of the loss came from the Nations League (10-16; totals 3-11). The national-team model projects about 0.4 goals per game too many.
NCAAF: favorites laying points went 3-7. The model's totals were above the market in 50 of 57 games. A-grade picks went 1-4 at 2.5u each.
NBA preseason: the 5-2 was luck. The picks came from default ratings (a 144-point "fair total" in every game), and they need a guard before opening night.
Grading: 4 soccer picks never graded because their games have no ESPN id.
#sportsbetting #betting
Some sports we are getting more right than others...
7-0 on MLB that last 7 days!
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PMill AI · Last 7 days · MLB
6-0 (100.0%) · +105.6% ROI
A 2-0 · B 4-0
2026-10-05 MLB Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians Chicago White Sox ML B W
2026-10-04 MLB San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers ML B W
2026-10-04 MLB Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Atlanta Braves ML A W
2026-10-03 MLB Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians Chicago White Sox ML B W
2026-10-03 MLB Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers ML B W
2026-10-01 MLB Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves ML A W
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