Tracking the companies, deals, and infrastructure shaping US prediction markets. FCMs | IBs | DCMs | DCOs | Partnerships
Philadelphia, PA
Joined March 2026
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A new DCM application (Nasdaq MRX Futures, LLC) has been posted this morning, the first the CFTC has posted since ForumEx submitted on 8/21/2026.
Rulebook indicates the following:
- Plans to utilize The Options Clearing Corporation as DCO.
- Plans to offer swaps, including combination orders (combos) up to 10 legs.
- First products: Two binary (cash-or-nothing) event contracts, each paying $100:
CPIY: headline CPI year-over-year
CPXY: core CPI year-over-year
Rulebook: cftc.gov/filings/documents/2…
Filing information: cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
'@DraftKings exchange (DKeX) filed two CFTC submissions today that change what it charges, both effective Nov 2:
1. Maker fee rate on Combination Contracts (multi-leg) doubles at every price. Coefficient 0.035→0.07, max $0.0175 per contract at $0.50. Taker fees unchanged.
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
2. Market Maker Program ends the maker-fee waiver for pre-game trading in covered full-game NFL moneyline and spread markets. DKeX's reason: liquidity there is "well established before the start of the event."
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
NEW: Another sports-focused exchange moves into federally regulated event contracts.
@Sporttrade has been approved by the CFTC as a DCO. We assume their DCM will be approved soon as well.
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
Based on CFTC filings posted this morning, @ProphetX has self-certified to begin offering markets on the Circa Survivor contest (and weekly Scorigami NFL outcomes).
Based on recent CFTC filings, it appears @DKPredictions (DKeX/Railbird) may soon be adding for both NFL and NBA.
NFL: cftc.gov/filings/ptc/ptc1006…
NBA:
cftc.gov/filings/ptc/ptc1014…
Dated yesterday, but posted on the CFTC's site today, volume data markets were also added for Novig and Underdog exchanges.
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
Earlier today, @ProphetX self-certified various contracts related to competitor DCM volume figures (DKeX, Polymarket, and Rothera). Prophet previously certified similar contracts on Kalshi's volume data.
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
Per NFA records, @fanduel's New Venture III LLC is now an NFA member and a registered FCM (Swap Firm approved), six months after applying on 4/9.
It's FanDuel's second FCM, after FanDuel Prediction Markets, its JV with CME.
nfa.futures.org/BasicNet/bas…
'@ProphetX (via Milbank) met CFTC staff on 9/29 to discuss its comments on the prediction markets NPRM, two months after comments closed.
Its letter backed the proposal and asked for 4(c) class exemptions, bans on six contract types and a retail PM office.
regulations.gov/comment/CFTC…
Another incentive program update: @Polymarket filed changes with the CFTC to amend its market maker program (FKA 2026 Market Maker Program), eff. ~10/15. Rebates are a % of the taker fees charged on a maker's qualifying fills, under an aggregate monthly cap. Eligible markets are limited to sports, crypto prices and politics; any new categories will require a new submission to the CFTC. A multiplier based on when a fill occurs is dropped.
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
On 10/1, a new Sports Event Contract Market Maker Incentive Program was submitted by @OG_com Markets (NADEX/CDNA). The submission appeared this morning on the CFTC's website. While most of the program details are redacted, the Program is comprised of two independently assessed market maker incentives: (i) a Designated Market Maker incentives for designated sports event markets, subject to specified pre-game and live depth and uptime requirements; and (ii) Combo incentives requiring a Market Maker to achieve certain obligations on executed combo contracts in a weekly review period.
Effective 10/16/2026, participants must be market makers.
cftc.gov/filings/orgrules/ru…
PredictionMarketPulse retweeted
US-regulated prediction markets just did over $20B in a single week.
Two years ago, the same week was ~$5M. Election week 2024 - the moment many called the top - was $750M, and none of it was sports.
Trailing 52 weeks: over $290B, ~85% of it sports. 🧵
On 9/14, Jump Trading sent its Head of Policy and Director of Policy & Govt Affairs to the CFTC to discuss the agency's rulemaking on affiliated market makers (comments closing 11:59 PM ET on 10/5). Just a few days before Citadel met with the CFTC (which was first reported by @dan_bernstein_ ).
regulations.gov/comment/CFTC…
@OG_com (NADEX) asked the CFTC today to approve rules for perpetual single-stock futures: cash-settled, no expiry, 1-share contracts, 24/5 trading, and a funding rate paid between longs and shorts.
NADEX filed with the SEC 9/14 to register as an exchange for security futures, which under the Exchange Act is effective on filing.
CFTC filing:
cftc.gov/IndustryOversight/I…
SEC filing:
sec.gov/files/rules/other/20…
