Prediction Market Trader | $500k+ Profit | Kalshi Partner | Ref Link → https://xitter.cf/t.co/hquBkUuDA0
Joined July 2024
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Mention Markets, NFL, Midterms with @Foster xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1pJdRDzjP…
PredictionMarketTrader retweeted
Did they forget about @PredMTrader? This is a disgrace.
Pretty remarkable that the all-time most traded elections on Kalshi for states like Texas, Alabama, and Tennessee are still the LA Mayor race
Shows just how viral the Spencer Pratt campaign was
I’d expect a dem vs rep political power index to be one of the first and biggest indices to come out of this
Will be interesting to dig into how it is priced
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets.
The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market.
Over time, products built around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings.
These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone.
Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more.
The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives.
Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts.
Think about what that opens up.
An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues.
Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving.
Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact.
The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
This can’t be good for Talarico
I have several mutuals who have bet literally thousands of dollars (possibly tens of thousands at this point) on Paxton winning.
The idea that someone like Talarico, who believes White skin is a virus and that we should govern the country like a big kindergarten class, could win a Senate race in Texas just seems totally unbelievable.
And yet, the betting markets give him an overwhelming advantage and he has led or tied in every single poll since the end of the summer, bar one.
Someone is wrong here. Either the market participants and pollsters are about to be humiliated, or our political landscape is going to be shattered in a way that few people are prepared for.
The issue with this is that every event is inherently 50/50 because it either happens or it doesn’t
So if you routinely are buying things at 60 cents, you’re overpaying and gonna lose
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Twitter engagement hack
Simply quote tweet any post, literally doesn’t matter what post, with “this seems bad for Talarico”