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Settlement risk on prediction markets, measured.
1 Jan to 2 Oct 2026: 3,005 disputes on 2,666 Polymarket markets. Of 2,543 settled disputed markets, 853 (33.5%) settled differently from the disputed proposal.
Signed, verifiable records. Free API: predge.io
/verify now returns valid: false, reason key_revoked, for anything signed with the old key, even records signed weeks ago.
Harsh, but it is the honest answer. Whoever holds a leaked key can sign a record with any date on it, so the date inside the signature proves nothing.
Lesson: if your signatures verify offline, verifiers cache your key for a long time. Design the revocation path before you need it:
- a status per key: active, retired, revoked
- a reason and a date
- verifiers that re-read the key list
- an anchor outside your infra
Want to test a verifier against a live signed record and the rotated key? Free pilot key, one step:
predge.io/start
What survives a revoked key is proof from outside your own servers.
Records whose hashes a third party notarized on Base before the breach still show they existed then, unchanged. Example, notarized by FairSeal on 13 Oct:
verify.fairseal.io/receipt.h…
Same day:
- new ed25519 attestation key, kid 3b6551a6439b9bda
- old key 13fa3d18a369e6c7 stays in our key list, marked revoked, with a reason
- partners told by email which kid to pin
Key list: api.predge.io/.well-known/pr…
Our host, Railway, emailed customers at 01:03 UTC on 22 Oct: an unauthorized party may have accessed customer env vars, some in decrypted form.
Our product is signed records. Our signing key lived in an env var, so we treated it as compromised. Here is what we did:
What an agent's settlement logic should take from this:
- a price near 0.97 or 0.9995 is a price, not a resolution
- after a second dispute, plan for days
- do not spend collateral that is still in a vote
Predge signed a record of this dispute while the vote was open and again after it resolved. Both snapshots pass our verifier.
Full issue, tx hashes and files: data.predge.io/dispute-of-th…
Check a record: data.predge.io/verify
Built for @monad Metropolis: Predge Guard tells you, or your AI agent, whether a disputed Polymarket answer will hold before you trade it.
1 in 3 disputed answers changed in 2026. 26 verdicts already on Monad mainnet.
Tap a market, no typing: guard.predge.io
Sign in with email (@privy_io), the wallet you already use (@dynamic_xyz) or just a passkey (mera by Category Labs). No USDC on Monad? Aurora Intents tops up from 20+ chains.
On Android it's the same flow, and your fingerprint is the wallet.
Why Monad: measured on mainnet, a verdict lands 1 to 2 s after its request and costs about $0.001 (38 markets, 66 tx). Cheap and fast enough to require before every single trade.
Code: github.com/predgeAI/erc8004-…
Step 2, who's exposed: @nansen_ai data, paid per call over x402 on Monad.
Trump "Ammunition" is in a vote right now. Top holders: $91,170 on the disputed No vs $36,208 on Yes (12 Oct). That decides the next step: hedge, size down or wait.
Step 3, act in one tap: a @KuruExchange note that pays $1 if the answer flips (testnet, live book), a BTC short on Perpl margined in Agora's AUSD, or wait.
Agents get the same rule: our @MetaMask agent wallet plugin refuses the bet while the vote is open.