U Iowa PolSci prof. Author of Supreme Court Agenda Setting: The Burger Court, Iowa Votes, & Prelaw Advisor. My views not those of the UI. RTs not endorsements.
Iowa City, Iowa
Joined September 2011
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In Oct 2022 IA Republicans had an active voter registration advantage of 98K. In Oct 2026 the Republican advantage was 180K.
Ds had lost 63K active voters and Rs had gained 28.5K. (No Party voters gained only about 1.5K.)
There are reasons to not necessarily compare 2022 with 2026. One is certainly which party controls the White House. That also affects turnout (e.g., which party's base is more motivated).
Just watched the IA GOV debate and I have to say I actually enjoyed it (and the prior one). No mud-slinging and no time limits. Sand and Lahn talked about policies and programs they would support. You can agree or not with either one, but these were how it should be done.
Tim Hagle retweeted
WHAT THEY'RE SEEING IN DES MOINES, IOWA --
*50* political ads on NBC affiliate WHO between 5-7 am this morning!
Senate Leadership Fund (negative hitting Josh Turek on illegal immigration)
Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund (negative hitting Zach Nunn on health care/drug prices)
Rob Sand campaign (negative hitting Zach Lahn on health care/living out of state)
WinSenate (negative hitting Ashley Hinson on drug prices)
Christina Bohannan campaign (negative hitting Mariannette Miller-Meeks on support for data centers)
Hinson campaign (positive featuring Democrat voting for Hinson)
WinSenate (negative hitting Hinson on voting for the war in Iran and tariffs)
Nunn campaign (positive on being bi-partisan/going against his own party)
Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund (negative hitting Miller-Meeks on voting to cut cancer research funding)
Fight On Iowa (negative hitting Turek on illegal immigration)
Miller-Meeks campaign (negative hitting Bohannan on siding with sex predators)
Congressional Leadership Fund (negative hitting Trone Garriott on trans issue)
Iowa Democratic Party/Mike Tupper campaign (15-second positive on being independent voice)
Turek campaign (contrast hitting Hinson for voting against the release of the Epstein files)
Congressional Leadership Fund (negative hitting Trone Garriott on trans issue)
Brenna Bird campaign (positive on record as AG)
Iowa Democratic Party/Amy Tagliareni campaign (15-second positive on cancer rates/pollution)
Heather Sievers campaign (15-second negative hitting Bill Gustoff on corruption)
Lahn campaign (contrast hitting Sand on illegal immigration/supporting Green New Deal)
Nunn campaign (negative hitting Trone Garriott on trans issue)
Turek campaign (contrast on personal background/change in Washington)
Republican National Committee/Hinson campaign (positive “food fight” ad on being bi-partisan)
Nate Boulton campaign (15-second positive on fighting corruption)
Iowa Democratic Party/Tupper campaign (15-second positive on lowering costs)
Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund (negative hitting Miller-Meeks on voting to cut cancer research funding)
Hinson campaign (response on the Epstein files)
Turek campaign (positive on border security on fighting illegal immigration)
Sand campaign (positive featuring Republican voting for Sand)
Iowa Democratic Party /Mandy Newton Rosenow campaign (15-second positive on support for military/public service)
Senate Leadership Fund (negative hitting Turek on illegal immigration)
WinSenate (negative hitting Hinson on voting for the war in Iran and tariffs)
Fight On Iowa (negative hitting Turek on illegal immigration)
Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund (contrast boosting Trone Garriott, hitting Nunn on slashing funding for law enforcement/giving tax breaks to corporate donors)
Nate Willems campaign (contrast hitting Bird on prices/taking money from polluters)
Turek campaign (contrast on personal background/change in Washington)
Everytown for Gun Safety Victory Fund (contrast boosting Trone Garriott, hitting Nunn on slashing funding for law enforcement/giving tax breaks to corporate donors)
Republican National Committee/Hinson campaign (positive “food fight” ad on being bi-partisan)
Senate Leadership Fund (negative hitting Turek on illegal immigration)
Nunn campaign (positive on being bi-partisan/going against his own party)
Sand campaign (negative hitting Lahn on health care/living out of state)
Hinson campaign (positive featuring Democrat voting for Hinson)
Senate Leadership Fund (negative hitting Turek on illegal immigration)
Mike Naig campaign (15-second negative hitting Chris Jones’ comments on farmers not working hard)
Congressional Leadership Fund (negative hitting Trone Garriott on trans issue)
NRCC/Nunn campaign (negative hitting Trone Garriott on trans issue)
Naig campaign (15-second negative hitting Chris Jones’ comments on farmers not working hard)
Paul Pate campaign (positive)
WinSenate (negative hitting Hinson on drug prices)
Republican National Committee/Hinson campaign (positive “food fight” ad on being bi-partisan)
No Going Back PAC (negative hitting Trone Garriott on trans issue)
Tim Hagle retweeted
University of Iowa student and TPUSA chapter VP Isaac has worked tirelessly to build one of the strongest chapters in the Midwest.
Between studying economics and pursuing his goal of working in government efficiency, he never stops leading on campus.
Thrilled to award him a $5,000 scholarship! 🇺🇸
@Realalexclark @DonaldJTrumpJr @tpusastudents
Tim Hagle retweeted
I'm gonna need someone, someday, to explain why this woman is the focus of near psychopathic hate for a small but vocal group of lunatics
IA active voter numbers up for Oct: Rs up about 1.3K, Ds up nearly 4K, NPs up about 7.5K. Active Rs lead Ds by 180K statewide.
sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/V…
Active voters in the Congressional Districts: IA01, Rs lead Ds by 21K; IA02, Rs lead by 26.5K; IA03 Rs lead by 15K; IA04, Rs lead by 117.5K.
I thought after the 2020 Census that Iowa would likely lose a seat after 2030. Good to see we're holding on (so far).
Tim Hagle retweeted
Just drove through Clinton, Iowa, and stopped at @Culvers. After Lara finished taking my order, she looked at my sweatshirt and said, “I’m old enough to know who Walter Payton was.”
I told her, “That’s my dad.”
She freaked out!
Then 17-year-old Ze lost it, too. He told me WP was his favorite football player.
Before our food even came out, I took pictures with everyone. What a special, unexpected moment.
Thank you, Lara & the entire team for making my day. 🙏🏽
@WalterPayton, you have no idea the impact you left down here. Your legacy continues to touch people in places you never imagined. 🙏🏽
🐻⬇️ #Bears
Tim Hagle retweeted
A Hero That Trusted His Intuition.
The problem wasn’t that Morgan Stanley didn’t believe him.
Rick Rescorla had already been right once. After the 1993 basement bombing of the World Trade Center, the firm’s security chief walked the towers, studied the site, and reached a conclusion most people preferred not to hear: the World Trade Center was still a target. Next time, he said, it would not be a truck. It would be an airplane.
An airplane. In a 1993 report.
Executives listened. Then they looked at the lease.
Morgan Stanley was the largest tenant in the complex—twenty-two floors of the South Tower, thousands of brokers, and a trading infrastructure that could not be packed into boxes and wheeled across the Hudson.
They literally made it a trading center.
The contract with the Port Authority ran until 2006. Walking away from premium Manhattan space of that scale would have meant penalties measured in the hundreds of millions, plus the operational chaos of relocating an entire downtown machine. So the company stayed.
Rescorla adjusted. If they could not leave the building, they would learn to escape it.
He built a protocol and treated it like doctrine. Unannounced drills. No exemptions. Brokers who billed by the minute were pulled off their desks and sent into the stairwells two by two, starting from the top floors, leaving a lane for firefighters coming the other way.
People complained. He did not care. Practice, he believed, was the only thing that would beat panic.
On the morning of September 11, 2001, American Airlines Flight 11 hit the North Tower. From the 44th floor of the South Tower, Rescorla could see the fire. Then the Port Authority came over the speakers: the South Tower was secure. Stay at your desks.
Rescorla grabbed a bullhorn and ignored them.
He started the drill his people already knew by heart. Floor by floor, two by two, down the stairs. He sang as he moved—Cornish songs from childhood, then “God Bless America”—keeping the line moving, refusing to let the stairwell become a stampede. Seventeen minutes later, the second plane struck the South Tower.
By then, most of Morgan Stanley was already on the way out.
Of the 2,687 employees in the building that morning, all but 13 survived.
It was stunning.
Rescorla could have been outside with them. He went back up instead. Colleagues told him to leave. He said he would, as soon as he was sure no one was left behind.
He was last seen around the 10th floor, heading higher.
The South Tower fell at 9:59 a.m. They never found him.
He was one of the 13.
He was a hero in every sense of the word.
Remember Rick Rescorla, he remembered for us.
