Jon Silktree

Hard to over-emphasize how much of a mistake (from the perspective of preserving ties with the U.S.) including Smotrich and his party in an Eisenkot-led government would be. Policymakers of both parties are well aware that Smotrich is sure to frustrate their plans for Gaza and is the primary driver of negative activities in the West Bank, both in terms of the assault on the PA and threats to the Palestinian economy and banking system and in the expansion of settlements and outposts/farms. Ben Gvir may be an arsonist and in charge of the police, but Smotrich is the more competent and ideologically rigid engineer of the settlement revolution. I have written it before, but those who don't watch Israel closely think Ben Gvir and Smotrich are interchangeable. Those who do know that Smotrich is much more effective and dangerous. If it is a core goal of a new Israeli government to improve or even simply to stop the decline of ties with the U.S., including Smotrich in the government is a clear way to torpedo the effort. This is especially true when looking at an incoming Democratic Congress not inclined to be friendly to Israel and which is seeking a demonstrable change in policy in both the West Bank and Gaza, not to mention a 2028 presidential election where either candidate is sure to take a harsher line on Israel. There is a meaningful distinction to be drawn between Smotrich and Ben Gvir inside Israeli politics: their bases differ in composition and in ideological particulars; their policy foci vary; and their rhetoric and working style are worlds apart. But both are fatally toxic to a new government trying to recover Israel's standing in the U.S. or elsewhere. Regardless of what happens in the coalition formation process, it's critical that Israeli leaders understand the sharpness of that tradeoff.