MIT professor & Brookings senior fellow ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army
Washington, DC
Joined September 2018
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My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @ForeignAffairs
foreignaffairs.com/iran/horm…
"Whatever the wisdom of President Trump’s decision to attack Iran, he has found the least bad military strategy for the war going forward: blockading the Strait of Hormuz while escorting friendly shipping through. This strategy has kept global oil prices from going through the roof while squeezing Iran harder. Unless Iran escalates first, Mr. Trump should stick with it. Time is on America’s side, and costs, while high, are limited. A renewed or intensified air war would be a giant and fraught roll of the dice."
wsj.com/opinion/slow-and-ste…
The US and Israel are always one short air campaign away from toppling the regime and winning the war
wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-…
ProfTalmadge retweeted
Data from Kpler shows that China has received around 1.2 million barrels of oil a day from Iran so far in 2026, only slightly less than the same period last year. nytimes.com/2026/08/25/busin…
Deeply saddened to hear of Dolly Parton's passing. Her musical talents were otherworldly, and then on top of that she was a genius businesswoman and a humanitarian of the first order. May you rest in peace, Dolly. We will always love you. @DollyParton
ProfTalmadge retweeted
New Beijing Brief: Recorded on the ground in Taipei, @ryanl_hass and @jonczin talk with @ProfTalmadge about Taiwan's defense strategy, its tech sector, and where Washington's read on the threat falls short. brook.gs/4hIEnml
ProfTalmadge retweeted
What are the spaces to watch in Taiwan in the coming year? Recording on the ground in Taipei, @ryanl_hass asks @jonczin and @ProfTalmadge on the latest episode of The Beijing Brief on Taiwan's security.
🎧Listen wherever you get your podcasts: brookings.edu/articles/how-s…
ProfTalmadge retweeted
"After being here for a week... I think the idea that Taiwan doesn't 'get it' somehow about its own security situation is misplaced."
@ProfTalmadge on Taipei's understanding of the need to defend itself asymmetrically vs China.
🎧 Listen to the episode: brook.gs/4hIEnml
I would add: China's oil stockpiles have significantly reduced what otherwise would have been a much bigger spike in oil prices from the Iran War. This is an under-appreciated source of Xi's leverage over Trump.
ft.com/content/3aa706c2-50bb…
Tale as old as time
washingtonpost.com/national-…
Delighted to have joined The Beijing Brief podcast from Taipei for a discussion of Taiwan's defense policy and security environment with @ryanl_hass and @jonczin.
How secure is Taiwan? What does the view from Taipei show that Washington is missing?
In a new special episode of The Beijing Brief recorded in Taipei, @ProfTalmadge joins @ryanl_hass & @jonczin to unpack the state of Taiwan’s defense and security. Listen:brookings.edu/articles/how-s…
The administration still doesn't get that Iran has a vote on when this conflict ends.
wsj.com/world/middle-east/ir…
ProfTalmadge retweeted
Oh, maybe we’ll get a nuclear Iran and a nuclear South Korea too out of the same administration.
I'm old enough to remember when South Korea was the linchpin of US plans to increase ship building capacity.
(That was 3 days ago btw.)
