Amendment 3 isn't a tax cut. It's a $12 billion tax shift. Cutting property taxes for some homeowners doesn't make the cost of roads, deputies and firefighters go away. Someone still has to pay billions a year. Under Amendment 3, it's renters, young families, small businesses and new buyers, who are the people who never got the tax cut. The Tax Foundation's new analysis shows who pays: 🔴 Renters. They get no tax cut. A third of Floridians rent, and nearly half do in Miami-Dade. When landlords' taxes go up, research shows half or more gets passed on in rent. 🔴 Young families and first-time buyers. Picture two identical houses on the same street. One owner gets a $250,000 exemption. The other bought in 2027 and gets $50,000 for five years. That gap can easily mean $2,000 or more a year, for the same house and the same services. 🔴 Police, fire and EMS. They get zero guaranteed funding. Rural counties like Bradford, Dixie, Lafayette and Union are already at the constitutional tax limit, so they can't raise rates. They'll have to cut services or add fees. 🔴 Everyone, eventually. The $12 billion figure doesn't include the Legislature's new power to exempt homesteads entirely. State economists say that cost can't even be estimated. 🔴 Future voters. This goes into the constitution, so fixing the damage will take another statewide campaign. Homeowners, even if you'd save, the money comes back around. You'll see it in new fees and special assessments, higher prices from local businesses, and fewer deputies and firefighters when you need them. Yes, local government spending deserves serious scrutiny. But reducing property taxes doesn't automatically reduce government spending. Without corresponding spending cuts, the costs may simply shift to renters, young families, and small businesses through higher taxes, fees, and assessments. This isn't tax relief. It's a tax shift. Read the research: taxfoundation.org/research/a…

Senate President Ben Albritton, who presided over the 30–9 vote to put Amendment 3 on the ballot, now says he’ll vote NO on Amendment 3. He warns rural counties could lose up to 30% of their resources, threatening law enforcement, emergency services, and infrastructure. I respect Ben and appreciate his willingness to speak candidly about the consequences. But perhaps this is exactly why the Legislature should have required comprehensive fiscal modeling and local impact analysis before putting it on the ballot. These questions deserved answers before the vote, not months afterward. floridapolitics.com/archives…

I joined WEDU’s Florida This Week to discuss what Amendment 3 supporters would rather not talk about: Who pays when billions in local revenue disappear? I support real property tax relief. But you cannot eliminate billions in recurring revenue and pretend the costs of police, fire, and essential services disappear with it. Those costs don’t vanish. They get shifted to renters, businesses, higher fees, and assessments. Amendment 3 doesn’t eliminate the bill. It changes who pays it. Floridians deserve the truth before they vote. Watch: wedu.org/shows/florida-this-…

Here’s an Amendment 3 question we aren’t asking enough: What happens to your home’s value when the community around it slowly deteriorates? Cities facing significant revenue losses won’t eliminate police and fire overnight. They may trim staffing, stretch response times, reduce library hours, close recreation centers, defer road maintenance and take longer to fill potholes. It won’t happen overnight. It’ll happen one budget at a time. And it won’t happen evenly. Two nearly identical homes ten minutes apart could eventually have very different values because one community maintained its services while another struggled. People don’t just buy houses. They buy neighborhoods. Safety, roads, parks, libraries and quality of life all have economic value. This isn’t just theoretical. A peer-reviewed study examining more than 3 million Florida home sales found that access to police, fire and emergency medical services is reflected in property values. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/… Some communities will cut services. Others will raise fees or find efficiencies. The outcomes will vary. But here’s the question: How much property-tax savings would compensate you for declining services and potentially lower home values? Your property-tax bill tells you what local government costs. Your home’s value may tell you what those services are worth.