Exploring life, booms and busts in 18.6 year cycles.
Joined June 2020
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Did you know? When copper prices soar, you can’t afford a house.
It sounds surprising, but it’s a proven historical rule from Phil Anderson’s The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking.
How do we know this? Just look at history.
At the end of every 18.6-year real estate cycle (like 1989–1990 and 2007–2008), construction, power grid expansion, and speculative building hit a fever pitch.
As Phil explains in his book, copper prices skyrocket at the exact moment land values reach their absolute peak, driving raw material costs through the roof.
What happens when copper finally falls?
Raw material input costs drop, construction costs ease, and housing affordability gradually resets.
Watch Copper - it tells you when the land mania has hit its limit and when affordability is returning.
Did you hear about Anthropic pitching a $30 trillion figure to investors? That is roughly the size of the entire US GDP.
The $30 trillion figure is an extreme marketing tool meant to hype up an IPO. However, the massive cash burn ($80B loss) against low corporate adoption has many institutional investors incredibly jittery. If Anthropic's public debut underperforms, it could trigger a massive market reset for the entire AI sector.
And we know about this through the knowledge of the Real Estate Cycle 👇
A Closer Look at Big Tech Cash Flow
Beneath the headline-grabbing revenue figures in the artificial intelligence sector lies a tightly integrated, self-reinforcing capital cycle among hyperscalers, foundation model developers, and semiconductor manufacturers.
A closer examination of the capital flow reveals a concentrated ecosystem:
- Hyperscalers like Alphabet and Amazon inject billions into private AI model developers (such as Anthropic, pushing private valuations toward $965B).
- Cloud service proceeds are then funneled upstream to hardware leaders: including Nvidia ($5.2T), AMD ($878B), and Broadcom ($1.6T): to secure the physical microchips required for infrastructure scaling.
While top-line growth metrics across the ecosystem appear robust, true cash flow generation remains heavily concentrated at the hardware and foundational infrastructure layers.
Learn more about where Tech and AI play an important role on the Real Estate Cycle here:
realestate.propertysharemark…
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Property Sharemarket Economics retweeted
Nice to catch up with Tim Moffat @TimMoffOak and Subscriber Paul @PaulScatur10855
Why luxury housing always falls first in the 18.6-year cycle?
In August 2026, Rightmove reported the biggest August drop in British house prices since 2018, with asking prices in the UK's richest borough falling £100,000 in a single month while UK 30-year gilt yields climbed toward 6%.
Exactly the same top-down pattern is playing out in Sydney and Melbourne's upper quartile (-3.2%), proving prime markets are the canary in the coal mine for the broader property cycle. #UKProperty
With Tech making up 40% of the S&P 500 and voters halting new data centre builds from Texas to NY, the AI capex frenzy just hit a wall.
Who wins, who loses, and what does the 18.6-year land cycle say comes next? 📊
#AI #StockMarket
Read the article: realestate.propertysharemark…
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Property Sharemarket Economics retweeted
Oakleigh is pleased to be joining the Institute of Managed Account Professionals (IMAP) in their Managed Account at the Financial Advice Association Australia (FAAA) Congress, 24-26 November at the Melbourne Convention and Exhibition Centre.
We look forward to seeing you there.
#FAAACongress26 @FAAA_Au
Does giving first-home buyers access to retirement funds lower house prices or push land prices higher?
Politicians love proposing 5% deposit schemes and raiding retirement funds to "help" first-home buyers afford a house.
But land economics proves that pumping more buyer credit into a fixed supply of land gets 100% absorbed into higher land prices—handing windfalls to existing sellers while saddling young buyers with bigger debt at the cycle peak.
This scheme seems familiar back then..
#HousingPolicy #LandTax #FirstHomeBuyers
Back in 2009, the British government used the same approach to boost the housing sector.
And it was right just after the 2008 housing crisis.
If you want to know when the perfect time to buy a house: realestate.propertysharemark…
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What happens when the cost of government debt keeps rising?
US government debt has reached $40 trillion, with borrowing costs creating more and more pressure on public finances.
Higher bond yields can feed through to mortgage rates as well as affect credit availability and property demand.
Could the cost of credit become a turning point for property markets?
Explore the economic forces shaping markets with our free newsletter: realestate.propertysharemark…
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Why young families are struggling to afford houses even after getting pay raises?
David Ricardo's Law of Economic Rent states that any productivity gain in society—from AI to infrastructure—is ultimately capitalized into land prices; thus, we get the real estate cycle.
You need to understand that land absorbs all economic surplus during the real estate cycle.
#LawOfRent #LandPrices #HousingCrisis
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Everyone says "property only goes up," but the 18.6-year cycle warns we're in the "Winner's Curse" trap. ⚠️
Soaring copper prices, record skyscraper projects, and high interest rates signal the Winner's Curse peak.
Read the article: realestate.propertysharemark…
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On Oct 13, 2026, PIMCO CIO Dan Ivascyn warned that while housing is already weak, commercial real estate (CRE) is now showing "more substantial weakening" as policy remains tight.
Just as @Phil_J_Anderson documented in 2007 in his book The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking, banks overloaded on late-cycle land and CRE collateral face a liquidity squeeze that turns a rate shock into a credit crunch.
#BankingSystem #CommercialRealEstate #MacroEconomics
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Learn more if you want to understand the system: realestate.propertysharemark…
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