Well, yeah. I called 8192 the EV in my first sentence.
I just personally think it makes more sense to go by EV rather than median when defining "luck" in this context, where most shiny hunters talking about being "under/over odds" are usually not stopping at one shiny.
Put another way, if you encountered 100 shinies all in exactly 6,000 attempts each for example, that would actually be ridiculously better than average luck, despite the fact that not one of them was less than 5678 resets.
This is because, for example, while there's a 50% chance of <5678 resets, there's also a ~9% chance of >20,000 resets for the shiny. Or a ~2.5% chance of >30,000 resets. Those drag the average up to 8192 resets per shiny.
Yes, but 8192 is the "expected value" or average number of resets expected per shiny. While 50% of attempts will be 5678 resets or less (i.e. 1-5678 attempts), the other 50% have no upper limit (5679-infinity). The overall average works out to 8192 resets. So fewer is "lucky".
The last two tech rolls, I literally said out loud "I'll do it again. I'll do it again." I guess he just didn't believe me that I actually would on the last one lol. After 140 sets played, have to keep it interesting somehow.
Holy L, so sorry to hear that. I left my backpack in my car in open view from the window by mistake just one time last year, and that was all it took to get a window smashed. Really sucks. So sorry it happened to you brother.
As for FD, it still lacks plats, but the more generous blastzones do make it a bit better for Sheik in most matchups. I definitely could have banned town against Roy instead, and probably will in the future, but like I mentioned, town is just something of a comfort stage for me
Kalos can be good against some characters like Ganon though, because most of the stocks I take from him are from edgeguards anyways rather than kill confirms on stage. Also, rain drops don't work on Ganon, so lack of plats is less meaningful. Major actually bans Kalos against me.
On top of that, Kalos not having platforms on stage means you lose access to a lot of platform-dependent kill confirms, like rain drops, drop tops, updrafts, and platform tech chases into up smash. All of this together makes killing on Kalos harder in many of Sheik's matchups.
Kalos is an autoban for me in most matchups. Sheik is pretty reliant on kill confirms to take stocks, rather than having strong aerials or other spammable moves, and those confirms have specific percent windows where they kill. Large blastzones make those windows even tighter.
Jokes aside, I do think it's a better stage for Roy, and obviously high risk / high reward since both of us can kill early with things like this. But as a matter of personal preference, I just generally feel comfortable on town and rarely ban it when playing Sheik.
