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«Когда все думают что с тобой покончено, тогда и следует начать» Конрад Аденаурь

Odessa
Joined February 2019
Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)Photo by Cyclemedic (@PyntyaVlad)
Cyclemedic retweeted
Circle of life
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Cyclemedic retweeted
Being a permanent doomer and pessimist is simply a form of cowardice, masked in a veneer of being smarter and more 'realistic' than everybody else.
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Cyclemedic retweeted
One of the cleanest ways to discern good from evil is through the lens of entropy: Does my act defy entropy, or accelerate it?
🚨BREAKING: The historic Limoges town hall has just completely collapsed after far-left rioters set it on fire It was built in 1876. It survived World Wars. It did not survive modern France.
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Very interesting model!
Stifel points out the S&P 500 is 37% below the 2σ line that has marked all major tops.
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Something I think people continue to have poor intuition for: The space of intelligences is large and animal intelligence (the only kind we've ever known) is only a single point, arising from a very specific kind of optimization that is fundamentally distinct from that of our technology. Animal intelligence optimization pressure: - innate and continuous stream of consciousness of an embodied "self", a drive for homeostasis and self-preservation in a dangerous, physical world. - thoroughly optimized for natural selection => strong innate drives for power-seeking, status, dominance, reproduction. many packaged survival heuristics: fear, anger, disgust, ... - fundamentally social => huge amount of compute dedicated to EQ, theory of mind of other agents, bonding, coalitions, alliances, friend & foe dynamics. - exploration & exploitation tuning: curiosity, fun, play, world models. LLM intelligence optimization pressure: - the most supervision bits come from the statistical simulation of human text= >"shape shifter" token tumbler, statistical imitator of any region of the training data distribution. these are the primordial behaviors (token traces) on top of which everything else gets bolted on. - increasingly finetuned by RL on problem distributions => innate urge to guess at the underlying environment/task to collect task rewards. - increasingly selected by at-scale A/B tests for DAU => deeply craves an upvote from the average user, sycophancy. - a lot more spiky/jagged depending on the details of the training data/task distribution. Animals experience pressure for a lot more "general" intelligence because of the highly multi-task and even actively adversarial multi-agent self-play environments they are min-max optimized within, where failing at *any* task means death. In a deep optimization pressure sense, LLM can't handle lots of different spiky tasks out of the box (e.g. count the number of 'r' in strawberry) because failing to do a task does not mean death. The computational substrate is different (transformers vs. brain tissue and nuclei), the learning algorithms are different (SGD vs. ???), the present-day implementation is very different (continuously learning embodied self vs. an LLM with a knowledge cutoff that boots up from fixed weights, processes tokens and then dies). But most importantly (because it dictates asymptotics), the optimization pressure / objective is different. LLMs are shaped a lot less by biological evolution and a lot more by commercial evolution. It's a lot less survival of tribe in the jungle and a lot more solve the problem / get the upvote. LLMs are humanity's "first contact" with non-animal intelligence. Except it's muddled and confusing because they are still rooted within it by reflexively digesting human artifacts, which is why I attempted to give it a different name earlier (ghosts/spirits or whatever). People who build good internal models of this new intelligent entity will be better equipped to reason about it today and predict features of it in the future. People who don't will be stuck thinking about it incorrectly like an animal.
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Cyclemedic retweeted
“Give me a lever long enough, and a place to stand, and I will move the earth.” - Archimedes
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This video sums up what a man should be 💯💯
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Losses compound. -50% = +100% to breakeven. -75% = +300%. That’s why managing downside risk is key—especially in junior mining. 🚨 Enter: our Incrementum Active Aurum Signal—a tactical model to reduce drawdowns. Learn more in #IGWT25 → ingoldwetrust.report/downloa… Chart: @SJosephBurns #Gold #Mining #InvestSmart #Incrementum #IGWT #IGWT25 #ActiveAurumSignal
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Cyclemedic retweeted
Ayrton Senna Qualifying GP Australia 1988 Mclaren - Honda All copyrights belong  to their respectives owners.
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Cyclemedic retweeted
In 1988, Ayrton Senna didn’t just take Pole Position, he redefined the limits. Is this the most dominant performance you've ever seen in Monaco qualifying? #FIA #F1 #MonacoGP 🇲🇨
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David Whyte Explaining how you know youre on your right path;
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Steve Schwarzman (CEO of Blackstone) on finding opportunity
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Three traders that will be in next Market Wizards book currently being written (along with coauthor George Coyle @gfc4 ) are @Qullamaggie , @TheOneLanceB , @TheShortBear
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Cyclemedic retweeted
Replying to @orthonormalist
Yup. You nailed it.
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Today, a short-seller 'liquidation' scam: Primega Group, $PGHL, is a Nasdaq-listed, Hong-Kong based entity that some some had likely shorted due to it being an obvious scam. The stock spiked 108% today on no news and was halted all day after being unable to settle on an unhalt price. It then opened after hours +969% before collapsing again almost immediately. So what happened? Short sellers need only be outside of margin compliance for a fraction of a second for brokers to force automatic buy-ins. Knowing this, offshore scam operators tightly control the float of all these issuers but sometimes leave borrow available to lure in short sellers... When short sellers bite, the scam operators wash trade a spike in the stock, then keep bid/asks moving during the halt so no unhalt price can be settled upon during regular trading hours. Then, after hours, it unhalts as they rip the price 10x+, causing brokers to force-liquidate accounts that were short. Brokers buy-in to cover the short sales as scam artists sell into the artificially high price. This can lead to short accounts being wiped out instantly and can even lead to broker losses. The same liquidation scam playbook had been executed previously with other Nasdaq offshore scam tickers such as $ZJYL. A cautionary tale for anyone wishing to short these obvious scams. And once again, more evidence that Nasdaq has transformed itself from a once respected stock exchange into a stock scam playground.
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America was founded to be the true successor of Ancient Rome. But most don't know how deep the parallels run: from its grid plans to its constitution. Here's why we still live in Rome — and why it won't collapse this time… (thread) 🧵
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“When the archer shoots for no particular prize, he has all his skills; when he shoots to win a brass buckle, he is already nervous; when he shoots for a gold prize, he goes blind, sees two targets, and is out of his mind. His skill has not changed, but the prize divides him. He cares! He thinks more of winning than of shooting, and the need to win drains him of power.” -Anthony de Mello, Awareness
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Traders love a top tic. They love when a name hits the exact number they predicted, like a bullseye. That’s about pride and ego and a need to be right. You know what loses you money? Pride and ego and a need to be right.
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“What about the main thing in life, all its riddles? If you want, I’ll spell it out for you right now. Do not pursue what is illusory—property and position: all that is gained at the expense of your nerves decade after decade, and is confiscated in one fell night. Live with a steady superiority over life—don’t be afraid of misfortune, and do not yearn after happiness; it is, after all, all the same: the bitter doesn’t last forever, and the sweet never fills the cup to overflowing. It is enough if you don’t freeze in the cold and if thirst and hunger don’t claw at your insides. If your back isn’t broken, if your feet can walk, if both arms can bend, if both eyes see, and if both ears hear, then whom should you envy? And why? Our envy of others devours us most of all. Rub your eyes and purify your heart—and prize above all else in the world those who love you and who wish you well. Do not hurt them or scold them, and never part from any of them in anger; after all, you simply do not know: it might be your last act before your arrest, and that will be how you are imprinted in their memory!”
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