Factor-based Model Portfolio Consultant
Canada
Joined March 2017
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- Followers5.8K
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Every protection can go wrong sometimes.
▶️Diversification. Crash = Correlation
▶️Volatility targeting. Reacts after spike
▶️Trend following. Whipsaws. Slow at sharp turns
▶️Buying puts. Premiums > Payoff
▶️Shorting. Both sides lose
▶️Stop losses. Sell low, buy back higher
Thoughts?
Parabolic runups often pullback. Trend-filters on both sides may help
A simple $GLD and $QQQ system with trend-filters below and above the price action.
Over the past 25 years gold and the Nasdaq 100 have very low correlation to each other. Yet, held 50/50, they still dropped 53%, because correlations can change short-term.
This public system (link in comments) adds three checks:
1. Is risk asset trending? If yes, hold. If not, look at defensive asset.
2. Is risk asset stretched? If it has run too far above the moving average, switch to defensive asset.
3. What are the defensive assets? Use intermediate-term Treasuries if they are trending. If not, use short-term bonds.
Weekly rebalancing. Roughly nine switches a year.
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It's official. I have been outed by OpenAI to be a Cyber Criminal. I appealed and lost. No further appeals will be considered. My crime?
A 90-year old bachelor passed away. My father-in-law (the bachelor's closest friend) is responsible for his few possessions. He asked if his 5 year old iPad could be wiped of personal information and updated.
I needed help from ChatGPT to reformat the glitchy device. Then I discovered it was activation locked. I asked ChatGPT to walk me through the process of removing it. It showed me the options - none of which could work.
▫️ The man is estranged from his family, he didn't save a receipt from 5 years ago, and he died without a will.
I asked for any other way to remove the lock. An hour or two later an e-mail came in and said I was guilty of Cyber Abuse. To be fair, I only got a warning. But I am one innocent question away from a lifetime ban.
I feel there is a gap in the system. If someone reviewed my account they would see quant research, a creative fiction book I am writing and a couple random posts trying to get an old iPad working. Not exactly the workings of a criminal mastermind.
Any advice on how to get a human in the OpenAI Trust & Safety department to review this matter would be most appreciated. @OpenAIDevs @romainhuet
My dad only ever invested in gold exploration stocks. Some did 100x while others went bust. It was like rolling dice as to which. $GLD
Could I develop a ranking system to improve the odds?
Not with exploration companies but there might be something with profitable miners. Link to screen in comments.
Companies with high operating leverage can really swing hard. Not all highly levered companies are the same. This is how I rank them to separate the good from the bad...
4 basic factors themes:
-Value
-Short Interest
-Growth
-Quality
Growth means fundamentals are moving in the right direction and improving.
Quality suggests that the growth might be sustainable.
Value is to keep the prices down for what you get.
And short interest is to see what informed investors are doing and where the ranking system might have a blind spot.
Below is my public 50-stock Russell 2000 screen. I set it to public so any P123 member can get the full rules/ranks and clone it. Link in the comments.
It is a backtest with all the disclaimers and such that come with it.
Hey @grok, what percentage of traders that post consistent 30%+ annual returns on X are likely fake, cherry-picked or paper-traded?
My wife thinks I have a superpower because every morning, no matter what time she rises, I have just finished making her a fresh pot of coffee.
She hasn't figured out yet that when the pot is almost done, I noisily bang around the kitchen.
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Getting P123 and Claude to build me a Buffett - Tech ranking system. 81 second video
youtu.be/qYcao_3OLAw
If you are using Claude - and you are using Portfolio123 - you need this skill
New Release!!
I’m excited to announce the release of the new P123 Claude Skill!
In this version 4.1.1, I’ve fixed some key structural bugs and addressed a few details that you, the community, brought to my attention.
Let’s grow P123 together!!
I hope you find it useful. I may release a free MCP in the future, but it’s still a work in progress.
Link to download on the Quant Solvings website!!
As a consultant I typically get to chose from 2 offers. Which one appeals to you?
1. Modest hourly rate - food on the table. Will never get ahead.
2. Sweat equity - high potential. Work unpaid for months/years. 95% of the time it does not pan out.
This free quant Claude skill from @Quant_Morales has saved me a ridiculous amount of time. Connects P123 to Claude so I get the best of both worlds.
Link below in comments
Is it easier for a stock to go from 10 cents to 1 dollar, or to go from $50 to $500? Assuming the market cap is the same in both instances, you might think that the share price has no bearing.
This is not necessarily the case with microcaps. Price matters.
For some reason it is easier for investors to visualize a stock going up 10x when it trades in the pennies versus a much higher priced stock. This can create a gambling mentality where investors buy low-priced shares as if buying a lottery ticket. It likely will be garbage but, hey, you never know.
This highly speculative mentality can drive up the price of a trashy stock. Which makes it a very poor investment when results disappoint.
To test this, I created a microcap universe with a modest liquidity filter. I also excluded stocks in the Russell 3000 index in an effort to lean into opaque names with little coverage that might see larger swings to hype and despair.
Over the past 20 years, the return on low priced microcaps have been atrocious. High priced microcaps have done well relative to the equal-weight universe, but still a modest return for the amount of volatility you need to take.
What’s your take? Do you try to beat the odds and find that 10-bagger penny stock?
Free Risk Models anyone?
What if I told you that @QuantSolvings will soon be releasing a free risk model that's openly available to the public?👀
