@RHerman

NQ, ES & Gold futures | Probability over opinion | ICT + backtests | TradingView indicators | https://xitter.cf/t.co/pruz2NQ6Tu | https://xitter.cf/t.co/7xIEUoPhSw

 Portsmouth, United Kingdom
hermantrading.pro
Joined December 2017
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  • Followers13.7K
London session. 62% probability for the short side. I took shorts only. +2R on the day. This is the full model. 1. Intelligent Balance Probability Map at 2 AM NY: 62% short, 38% long 2. Bias set: shorts and shorts only 3. Wait for a sweep reversal with confirmation 4. Short #1: too early, too aggressive. -1R 5. Short #2: small but valid confirmed sweep reversal. Entry 6. TP toward the more probable side. Level reached: +3R Basic ICT idea, done with numbers: trade toward the more probable side, and only with confirmation. Full walkthrough in the video. After the first short stopped out, would you have taken the second one?
Herman Trading educational graphic showing a 62% short directional bias on NQ during the London session. An original TradingView replay screenshot accompanies the message that probability selects the trading side while confirmation determines the entry.

ALT Herman Trading educational graphic showing a 62% short directional bias on NQ during the London session. An original TradingView replay screenshot accompanies the message that probability selects the trading side while confirmation determines the entry.

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40% win rate at 1:2. You lose 6 trades out of 10. And still make money. Breakeven win rate at 1:2: 33.3%. Expectancy: +0.20R per trade. After 0.1R of costs per trade: +0.10R. The catch: over 100 trades, a run of 5+ losses in a row is about 98% likely. The label is fine. The question is whether you can stomach it. How many losses in a row before you'd start doubting this strategy?
Herman Trading Trade Facts card styled like a food nutrition label. Headline: Read the label before you trade it. Serving size 1 trade, 100 per sample. Win rate 40%, average win 2.0R, average loss 1.0R, breakeven win rate 33.3%, profit factor 1.33, expectancy +0.20R, after costs of 0.1R per trade +0.10R. Chance of 5 or more losses in a row: 98%. Note: illustrative math, not a backtest.

ALT Herman Trading Trade Facts card styled like a food nutrition label. Headline: Read the label before you trade it. Serving size 1 trade, 100 per sample. Win rate 40%, average win 2.0R, average loss 1.0R, breakeven win rate 33.3%, profit factor 1.33, expectancy +0.20R, after costs of 0.1R per trade +0.10R. Chance of 5 or more losses in a row: 98%. Note: illustrative math, not a backtest.

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UPDATE: TradingView just changed course on invite-only indicators. November 1 changes nothing. A month ago the plan was clear: from Nov 1, no more selling access to invite-only scripts outside the TradingView Marketplace. Today the Creator Team sent vendors an update: → New terms are coming, shaped by vendor feedback → Selling your indicators on your own website or inside your trading course will be allowed under the new terms → On Nov 1 nothing changes for vendors or their users → Updated terms and an FAQ land the week after Nov 1 More than 1,500 script authors reached out to them. I was one of them. If you use my invite-only indicators: keep using them as normal. If you sell invite-only scripts and haven't emailed [email protected] yet, the window closes Nov 1. Would you rather buy an indicator through the TradingView Marketplace or straight from the creator?
Phone screenshot of the TradingView Blog. A black SOCIAL label sits above the headline: Marketplace update: More flexibility and features are coming, dated Oct 27. Below it is a dark banner with a glowing purple edge: on the left a button reading Indicator marketplace with a shopping bag icon, on the right a card titled Terms of Use, Policies, and Disclaimers with small legal text. Under the banner the article begins: A month ago, we shared our plans to make selling indicators and strategies on TradingView clearer and more transparent. Since then, we've received a wealth of thoughtful suggestions and positive feedback. Context: TradingView's 27 October 2026 update for vendors of invite-only indicators and Pine Script strategies, explaining that updated Marketplace terms are coming and nothing changes on November 1.

ALT Phone screenshot of the TradingView Blog. A black SOCIAL label sits above the headline: Marketplace update: More flexibility and features are coming, dated Oct 27. Below it is a dark banner with a glowing purple edge: on the left a button reading Indicator marketplace with a shopping bag icon, on the right a card titled Terms of Use, Policies, and Disclaimers with small legal text. Under the banner the article begins: A month ago, we shared our plans to make selling indicators and strategies on TradingView clearer and more transparent. Since then, we've received a wealth of thoughtful suggestions and positive feedback. Context: TradingView's 27 October 2026 update for vendors of invite-only indicators and Pine Script strategies, explaining that updated Marketplace terms are coming and nothing changes on November 1.

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tradingview.com/blog/en/mark…

Marketplace update: More flexibility and features are coming

Latest Updates to Track All Markets

tradingview.com
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A quiet ES day yesterday. Today took PDH or PDL after 08:00 on 90.4% of them. The setup, checked at 08:00 New York time: 1. Yesterday's range was small, under 0.8x its 250-day median 2. Neither PDH nor PDL taken before 08:00 2022-2026: one of them went on 90.4% of 104 days. Distance alone predicts 68.9%. 2015-2026: 82.2% of 230 days. Above expected in 8 of the 9 years with enough days. When: median 10:06 ET, 58% of the takes in the NY morning. How far past the level, at today's daily range: median about 20 points. After a quiet day, do you trade the break of yesterday's range or fade it? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, ES Daily Study (es-daily-study), 2015-2026
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2022 and 2024: every quiet-day setup took PDH or PDL after 08:00.
Light Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Label: ES, years with enough days. Headline: 2022 and 2024: every day. A large 90.4%: PDH or PDL taken after 08:00, 104 days, 2022-2026. Chips: Expected 68.9%, Median run past it 20 pts, Median 10:06 NY. A bar chart per year with a line for the expected rate: 2016 75, 2017 64, 2019 76, 2021 86, 2022 100, 2023 92, 2024 100, 2025 83, 2026 71 percent. Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, ES Daily Study (es-daily-study), 2015-2026. An ES futures daily study from Herman Trading backtesting about previous day high and low liquidity after a low-range day.

ALT Light Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Label: ES, years with enough days. Headline: 2022 and 2024: every day. A large 90.4%: PDH or PDL taken after 08:00, 104 days, 2022-2026. Chips: Expected 68.9%, Median run past it 20 pts, Median 10:06 NY. A bar chart per year with a line for the expected rate: 2016 75, 2017 64, 2019 76, 2021 86, 2022 100, 2023 92, 2024 100, 2025 83, 2026 71 percent. Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, ES Daily Study (es-daily-study), 2015-2026. An ES futures daily study from Herman Trading backtesting about previous day high and low liquidity after a low-range day.

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Hey @grok Is ICT actually profitable or just hype? Be honest.
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New York takes the London high on 75.4% of NQ days. Remove the days it was already there, and the edge is gone. On 33.5% of those days, price was already right next to the London high at 08:00. Taking it needed almost no move. Leave those days out: → London high taken: 67.2% (1,912 days) → Expected from the distance to the level alone: 68.0% The famous number is mostly geometry. Price that sits close to a level tends to trade through it. Before you trust a "75% setup", ask what the distance alone would predict. Do you check how far price is from a level before you call it a target? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Session Study v2 (nq-session-study-v2), 2015-2026
White editorial Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with orange accents. An orange pill reads NQ myth check, the HERMAN TRADING wordmark sits top right. A small caps line reads New York takes the London high. Huge black headline: 75.4% is mostly distance, with an orange marker underline under distance and an orange full stop. Two white cards show 75.4%, all 2,877 days, and 67.2%, open not at the level. An orange-bordered card shows 68.0% in orange: expected from the distance alone, the edge is gone. Bottom line: NQ Session Study v2, 2015-2026, and the orange handwritten note Check the baseline. www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. It explains that the popular London high take rate on NQ futures is mostly explained by how close price already is to the level.

ALT White editorial Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with orange accents. An orange pill reads NQ myth check, the HERMAN TRADING wordmark sits top right. A small caps line reads New York takes the London high. Huge black headline: 75.4% is mostly distance, with an orange marker underline under distance and an orange full stop. Two white cards show 75.4%, all 2,877 days, and 67.2%, open not at the level. An orange-bordered card shows 68.0% in orange: expected from the distance alone, the edge is gone. Bottom line: NQ Session Study v2, 2015-2026, and the orange handwritten note Check the baseline. www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. It explains that the popular London high take rate on NQ futures is mostly explained by how close price already is to the level.

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Hold or fail is a coin flip. Which side NQ sweeps first is not: 74.3%, 12 of 12 years.

Article · @RHerman
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Dow futures opened 08:00 near yesterday's open. PDH or PDL went on 82.7% of those days. The setup, checked at 08:00 New York time: 1. Neither PDH nor PDL taken before 08:00 2. The 08:00 open is near the previous day's open 2022-2026: one of them was taken on 82.7% of 179 days. Distance alone predicts 66.1%. Above expected in 12 of 12 years. When: median 10:08 ET, 61.3% of the takes in the NY morning. How far past the level, at today's daily range: median about 156 points. Do you mark yesterday's open on the Dow? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, YM Daily Study (ym-daily-study), 2015-2026
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Every year since 2015 beat the distance baseline. 2023: 91.2%. 2024: 90.0%.
Dark Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Label: Dow futures, every year since 2015. Headline: Above expected 12 of 12 years. A large 82.7%: PDH or PDL taken after 08:00, 179 days, 2022-2026. Chips: Expected 66.1%, Median run past it 156 pts, Median 10:08 NY. A bar chart per year with a line for the expected rate: 2015 82, 2016 79, 2017 70, 2018 70, 2019 79, 2020 67, 2021 72, 2022 77, 2023 91, 2024 90, 2025 82, 2026 71 percent. Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, YM Daily Study (ym-daily-study), 2015-2026. A Dow futures (YM) daily study from Herman Trading backtesting about previous day high and low liquidity.

ALT Dark Herman Trading graphic in 4:5. Label: Dow futures, every year since 2015. Headline: Above expected 12 of 12 years. A large 82.7%: PDH or PDL taken after 08:00, 179 days, 2022-2026. Chips: Expected 66.1%, Median run past it 156 pts, Median 10:08 NY. A bar chart per year with a line for the expected rate: 2015 82, 2016 79, 2017 70, 2018 70, 2019 79, 2020 67, 2021 72, 2022 77, 2023 91, 2024 90, 2025 82, 2026 71 percent. Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, YM Daily Study (ym-daily-study), 2015-2026. A Dow futures (YM) daily study from Herman Trading backtesting about previous day high and low liquidity.

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𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗬𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗡𝗤. 𝟱𝟵.𝟰%. 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆: 𝟲𝟱.𝟵%. Expansion = New York takes a London side and closes beyond it. NQ, New York session by weekday: Monday 59.4% (n 539) Tuesday 61.3% Wednesday 63.7% Thursday 60.7% Friday 65.9% The honest read: weekdays matter little. Every day expands more often than not, Monday included. Monday is not a "no trade" day. It is just the day New York closes beyond a London side least often. Do you trade Mondays like any other day, or wait for Tuesday? Historical frequencies, not a forecast. Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Session Study v2 (nq-session-study-v2), 2015-2026
A wide light Herman Trading graphic in two cards. The left card shows NQ New York session 2015-2026, a large gold 59.4%, the text Monday: the lowest NY Expansion rate, n 539 Mondays, the question And the best day?, a gold Swipe button and www.hermantrading.pro. The right card, partly hidden in the feed, is a bar chart titled NY Expansion rate by weekday: Monday 59.4%, Tuesday 61.3%, Wednesday 63.7%, Thursday 60.7%, and Friday 65.9% marked in gold as best. Footer: NQ Session Study v2, 2015-2026, historical, not a forecast. Backtest statistics for NQ futures by session.

ALT A wide light Herman Trading graphic in two cards. The left card shows NQ New York session 2015-2026, a large gold 59.4%, the text Monday: the lowest NY Expansion rate, n 539 Mondays, the question And the best day?, a gold Swipe button and www.hermantrading.pro. The right card, partly hidden in the feed, is a bar chart titled NY Expansion rate by weekday: Monday 59.4%, Tuesday 61.3%, Wednesday 63.7%, Thursday 60.7%, and Friday 65.9% marked in gold as best. Footer: NQ Session Study v2, 2015-2026, historical, not a forecast. Backtest statistics for NQ futures by session.

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Yesterday took only the prior day's low. London was bearish. NQ took the overnight low after 08:00 on 88.8% of 80 days. Both checks are known at 08:00 New York time: 1. The previous day traded below the low of the day before, but not above its high 2. London (02:00-07:59 ET) was bearish The question: does New York trade at least 1 tick below the overnight low (18:00-07:59 ET) after 08:00? 2022-2026: 88.8% of 80 days Expected from the distance alone: 77.2% 2015-2021: 75.9% of 108 days The edge over distance is +11.5 points. It shows up about 1.3 days a month, and the low usually went in the New York morning, median 10:35 ET. A frequency, not a trade signal. No entries, stops or costs modelled. Do you mark the overnight low before New York opens? Source: Herman Trading Backtesting Centre, NQ Daily Study (nq-daily-study), 2015-2026
Light Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with deep gold accents. Label: Overnight low taken after 08:00. Headline: Overnight low taken, then in gold: 88.8% of 80 days. A white glass card lists two numbered checks at 08:00 ET: 1, yesterday took only the prior day's low; 2, London (02:00-07:59 ET) was bearish. Three bars follow: this setup 2022-2026 88.8% in gold, expected from distance alone 77.2%, this setup 2015-2021 75.9%. Footer: NQ Daily Study, 2015-2026. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ at 08:00 tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A backtest of NQ futures showing how often New York takes the overnight low after these two conditions, compared with the rate distance alone predicts.

ALT Light Herman Trading graphic in 4:5 with deep gold accents. Label: Overnight low taken after 08:00. Headline: Overnight low taken, then in gold: 88.8% of 80 days. A white glass card lists two numbered checks at 08:00 ET: 1, yesterday took only the prior day's low; 2, London (02:00-07:59 ET) was bearish. Three bars follow: this setup 2022-2026 88.8% in gold, expected from distance alone 77.2%, this setup 2015-2021 75.9%. Footer: NQ Daily Study, 2015-2026. Herman Trading wordmark top left, NQ at 08:00 tag top right, www.hermantrading.pro at the bottom. A backtest of NQ futures showing how often New York takes the overnight low after these two conditions, compared with the rate distance alone predicts.

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Your NQ weather for next week. Mon: clear Tue: showers, Durable Goods 8:30 AM ET Wed: storms, Fed 2:00 PM ET Thu: severe, GDP + Core PCE 8:30 AM ET Fri: clear Trump: nothing scheduled. Yet. Which day are you sitting out?
Weather app style card titled NQ, New York: 7 red events next week. Stormy midweek: Fed Wednesday, GDP and Core PCE Thursday. Severe volatility watch: Thursday 8:30 AM ET GDP, Core PCE, personal income and spending, all at the same minute. Wednesday 2:00 PM ET Fed decision, press conference at 2:30. Five-day forecast for the week of Monday October 26, 2026, USD red folder news, Eastern time: Monday clear, 0 red. Tuesday showers, 1 red at 8:30 AM. Wednesday thunderstorms, 2 red at 2:00 and 2:30 PM. Thursday severe storms, 4 red at 8:30 AM. Friday clear, 0 red. Trump: no speech scheduled. Data from the TradingView economic calendar.

ALT Weather app style card titled NQ, New York: 7 red events next week. Stormy midweek: Fed Wednesday, GDP and Core PCE Thursday. Severe volatility watch: Thursday 8:30 AM ET GDP, Core PCE, personal income and spending, all at the same minute. Wednesday 2:00 PM ET Fed decision, press conference at 2:30. Five-day forecast for the week of Monday October 26, 2026, USD red folder news, Eastern time: Monday clear, 0 red. Tuesday showers, 1 red at 8:30 AM. Wednesday thunderstorms, 2 red at 2:00 and 2:30 PM. Thursday severe storms, 4 red at 8:30 AM. Friday clear, 0 red. Trump: no speech scheduled. Data from the TradingView economic calendar.

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Hey @grok You can trade only one market for the next 5 years: NQ, ES, gold or crude. No switching. Which one and why?
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Sunday MOT for your trading. Fail an item and the car stays in the garage on Monday. Stop loss set before entry. Position size calculated, not guessed. Daily loss limit written down. News calendar checked for the week. A plan written for each setup. Journal up to date. Ten minutes on Sunday beats a breakdown on Monday. Which item would fail your test this week?
Herman Trading card styled as a UK MOT test result. Headline: Would your trading pass its MOT? Vehicle: your trading, Sunday. Items: stop loss set before entry PASS; position size calculated, not guessed PASS; daily loss limit written down FAIL; news calendar checked for the week PASS; plan written for each setup FAIL; journal up to date ADVISORY. Result: FAIL, fix 2 items before Monday's open. A weekly pre-trading risk checklist.

ALT Herman Trading card styled as a UK MOT test result. Headline: Would your trading pass its MOT? Vehicle: your trading, Sunday. Items: stop loss set before entry PASS; position size calculated, not guessed PASS; daily loss limit written down FAIL; news calendar checked for the week PASS; plan written for each setup FAIL; journal up to date ADVISORY. Result: FAIL, fix 2 items before Monday's open. A weekly pre-trading risk checklist.

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One screen runs my whole trading business. 3 AI agents on watch. Herman AI Studio: my private command centre. Real screen recording, nothing mocked up. Every card is one part of the business: → AI agents: Claude, ChatGPT and Grok, with an approval queue for me → Content pipeline: writing, drafts, queued, posted → X Growth HQ: a morning niche scout by Grok Bot → Backtesting: 17 verified studies → Socials: 8 networks in one number, refreshed every minute → Studio audit: it checks itself and flags what's broken One glance shows what needs me today. Then back to the charts. What's the first screen you open on a trading day?
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Two independent trades, each with a 70% win rate. Chance both win: 49%. Two great setups. Worse than a coin flip that both work. Stop expecting every trade of the day to pay. How many trades do you take on a good day?
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One planned loss: -1R. Two revenge trades later: -6.3R. The planned loss was the cheap part. Revenge trade 1, double size: -2R. Revenge trade 2, triple size: -3R. Plus fees and slippage: -0.3R. At 1% risk per R, that's about 6.3% of the account in one afternoon. The first stop did its job. The next two trades undid it. What's your rule after the first loss of the day?
Herman Trading Weekly Receipt card. Headline: What one revenge spiral really costs. A paper receipt from Revenge Trading Co., example account at 1% risk per R, lists one planned trade stopped at -1.0R, revenge trade 1 at 2x size -2.0R, revenge trade 2 at 3x size -3.0R, and fees and slippage -0.3R. Planned loss -1.0R, emotional surcharge -5.3R, total -6.3R, about -6.3% at 1% risk per R. Footer: No refunds. Next time, stop after the first one.

ALT Herman Trading Weekly Receipt card. Headline: What one revenge spiral really costs. A paper receipt from Revenge Trading Co., example account at 1% risk per R, lists one planned trade stopped at -1.0R, revenge trade 1 at 2x size -2.0R, revenge trade 2 at 3x size -3.0R, and fees and slippage -0.3R. Planned loss -1.0R, emotional surcharge -5.3R, total -6.3R, about -6.3% at 1% risk per R. Footer: No refunds. Next time, stop after the first one.

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2026 so far... 🌍 One of the best things about being a TRADER is this: your WORK can TRAVEL with you. Not many professions give you the freedom to manage your business, follow the markets, and still explore the world with your family. This year: April - 🇹🇷 Turkey May - 🇫🇷 France road trip July - 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales August - 🇵🇱 Poland October - 🇫🇷 France road trip December - 📍 Searching for destination This Saturday, we’re heading off on another family road trip. From Portsmouth, we’re taking the ferry to Caen and starting our second France trip of the year - this time for a full week on the road by car. That’s why I always say trading is one of the best professions in the world. Yes, it’s hard. Yes, it takes sacrifice. Yes, you pay for this freedom first with discipline. But the reward? The ability to take your office with you, spend more time with family, and experience more of the world without putting life on hold. That kind of freedom is worth working very hard for. December is still open… Any destination ideas? 🌍
Herman Trading
@RHermanAug 4
2026 so far... 🌍 Trading may be one of the hardest professions in the world. But for me, it is also the best. Not because of the P&L. Because of the freedom it can create when you are willing to work for it. This year: April - 🇹🇷 Turkey May - 🇫🇷 France road trip July - 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Wales August - 🇵🇱 Poland — NOW October - 📍 Searching for destination December - 📍 Searching for destination Today, I’m flying to Poland. My office fits inside a laptop, the markets remain the same, but the view outside the window keeps changing. That freedom did not come easily. It required years of learning, losses, discipline, sacrifice and showing up when quitting would have been easier. But this is exactly why it is worth working so hard for. Trading and travelling. Working from anywhere. Exploring the world without putting your career on pause. For me, that is the real dream. Where are you trading from right now? 🌍
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3 new online stores + Amazon KDP. None of them are about trading. Not a chart post today. Just something real. Whop is the only trading-related one. The rest have nothing to do with NQ. Why bother? Same reason you don't put your whole account on one setup. One income stream is one point of failure. Some of these will make a little. Some more. Some might never take off. Smaller or bigger, passive income is a good thing. It adds up quietly, the same way a small edge does. Are you building anything outside trading, or is it 100% charts for you?
A smartphone lock screen held at a slight angle in front of a sunrise over a calm sea. The screen shows Friday, 23 October and the time 07:04 in large white numbers. Below the clock, a frosted glass widget titled "Income streams", marked "all running", lists six rows, each with a green status dot: Trading, Active; Whop, Live; three Online store rows, S1, S2 and S3, Live; Amazon KDP, Live. At the bottom of the screen: "Working while I sleep." A lifestyle picture of a trader with several income streams running alongside trading.

ALT A smartphone lock screen held at a slight angle in front of a sunrise over a calm sea. The screen shows Friday, 23 October and the time 07:04 in large white numbers. Below the clock, a frosted glass widget titled "Income streams", marked "all running", lists six rows, each with a green status dot: Trading, Active; Whop, Live; three Online store rows, S1, S2 and S3, Live; Amazon KDP, Live. At the bottom of the screen: "Working while I sleep." A lifestyle picture of a trader with several income streams running alongside trading.

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