Everyday $TSLA & SpaceX shareholder in the Ozarks 🇺🇸 Starlink on the roof, gravel on the roads. The future, seen from a small town. Not financial advice.
Joined September 2026
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I'm Shane, from the Arkansas Ozarks. I own Tesla and SpaceX shares the way folks around here own land: buy what you believe in, then wait. Starlink on the roof, gravel in the driveway. I post what the future looks like from a small town. Glad you're here.
The Arkansas State Fair runs through Sunday. Somewhere a 4-H kid is about to learn more about money selling one steer than most adults learn in a finance class: what it cost to raise, what it brought, and why you never name the calf.
My grandpa kept his emergency fund in a coffee can in the deep freeze. Mine's in a savings account now, but the rule hasn't changed: you don't touch the shares when the truck breaks down. You touch the coffee can.
Tesla reports after the bell today. Wall Street wants $28.3B in revenue, $0.45 EPS and a 17.9% gross margin.
As an everyday shareholder, here's what I'm actually listening for:
✅ A Cybercab production date I can circle on the calendar
✅ How many cities have truly driverless robotaxi
✅ Energy storage after a 13.7 GWh quarter
✅ Anything real on the SpaceX merger
The EPS number is honestly last on my list. What's first on yours?
13.6 million Starlink subscribers. I'm one of them, on a gravel road in the Ozarks where good internet used to be a pipe dream. People ask why I own SpaceX. It's not the rockets first. It's that I watched my own internet go from barely loading a page to streaming anything in one afternoon.
Q3 2026 highlights:
- Delivered revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% year-over-year
- Successfully launched our first revenue-generating Starship mission, delivering 26 Starlink V3 satellites to our broadband constellation, representing approximately 10x the downlink capacity added by a Falcon 9 Starlink launch
- Added $6.7 billion of incremental Super Intelligence solutions and infrastructure revenue year-over-year, driven by cloud services agreements, the acquisition of Cursor, and our growing SI models and software applications, including @Grok @Bot
- Delivered year-over-year revenue growth of 69% and income from operations growth of 99% for the Connectivity segment, supported by strong momentum in enterprise and government adoption, and continued @Starlink consumer subscriber growth
- Continued to scale nameplate compute, reaching 1.7 GW as of September 30, 2026
A daily Porsche 911 driver just ordered a Model Y Performance because of FSD.
Out here in rural Arkansas the test isn't a California freeway. It's gravel roads, no lane lines, and deer at dusk. When FSD handles that without drama, that's the version that wins over the rest of the country.
Saw the Cybercab barefoot debate. Out here the rule for any vehicle you didn't buy yourself is simple: boots on the floor, feet off the seats, and leave it cleaner than you found it. Robotaxi or your uncle's truck, same deal.
Everybody's asking what share price would get a Tesla-SpaceX merger approved.
My take as a guy with a few shares and a Starlink dish on the roof: I care less about the exact ratio and more about whether the same people keep building the same stuff.
Nothing's announced. Let's hear what they say Wednesday.
Alberta is now paying up to C$1,000 to help about 10,000 rural homes get Starlink. For years a 'rural broadband plan' meant a map, a press release, and a fiber line that showed up a decade later, if ever. Out here in the Ozarks we learned it the easy way: a dish on the roof shows up next week.
I don't need $4,400 to be right. ARK's own model puts about 80% of the value on robotaxi, so the number I'm watching is miles: over 1 million unsupervised in about 7 months, across 7 cities. If that curve keeps bending, the price target takes care of itself. If it doesn't, no spreadsheet saves it.
ARK Invest has just released their new Tesla valuation model, projecting @Tesla could reach a $17.5 trillion valuation by 2031, and upwards of $20.4 trillion in a bull case.
ARK's 2031 Tesla base case: $4,400/share
• ~1M Optimus robots sold externally, generating ~$212B in revenue
• Robotaxi is ~80% of Tesla's enterprise value (down from ~90% in ARK's 2029 model)
• ~8.1M robotaxis deployed, with ~$753B in ride-hail revenue
• Total revenue of ~$1.45T and EBITDA of ~$902B
• Market cap of ~$17.5T
• Tesla's AI infrastructure spend grows from ~$7B to $225B cumulatively
ARK's 2031 Tesla bull case: $5,000/share
• EV revenue (excluding credits): $355B
• Robotaxis: 10M vehicles and $899B in ride-hail revenue
• Energy storage: 2,693 GWh deployed and $193B in revenue
• Optimus: 1.2M robots sold externally and $254B in revenue
• Total revenue: $1.62T
• EBITDA: $1.045T, a 65% margin, with a 72% gross margin
• Market cap: $20.4T
ARK's model does not assume SpaceX and Tesla merge, but they estimate combined SpaceX and Tesla could generate $3.8T in revenue by 2031, with SpaceX contributing ~62%.
SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 at 6:04 this morning, landed the booster on a droneship a few minutes later, and reports earnings after the close tonight. Most companies spend earnings day polishing slides. This one spends it flying rockets. The numbers matter, but that habit is the real asset.
Big week for an everyday shareholder. SpaceX reports Tuesday, Tesla Wednesday.
I'm not watching car deliveries this time. I'm watching three things:
- how many paid Cybercab rides
- when Optimus starts doing real factory work
- Starlink subscriber growth
What number are you watching?
Around here a kid's first investment is usually a 4-H calf or a savings bond from grandma.
Now they'll own a piece of the company that put internet over our hollers and keeps landing rockets. That's a lesson you can't teach in a classroom.
Nothing humbles a man like a 'quick trip' to the hardware store that turns into three trips and a YouTube tutorial.
SpaceX is reportedly eyeing Nov 8 for Starship Flight 15, possibly with an upper-stage catch. Catching the booster changed the game. Catching the ship changes the math.
Slovakia just became the ninth EU country to approve Tesla's supervised self-driving. Nine countries, one at a time. Slow, then all at once. $TSLA
Southwest plans to put Starlink on every 737 by fall 2027, free for Rapid Rewards members. Wild that the internet at 35,000 feet is about to be better than what a lot of rural towns had five years ago.